Quote:
Originally Posted by serio562
Flopped set over set in consecutive hands(losing both).
You by definition have [KK-22]. I am going to igore any cases of 1 outer quads beating your higher set.. I think you are more asking about the odds of someone flopping a higher set than you.
The question implies the board is not paired. So I will also go with that.
We have hand PP, first the odds we flop a set:
Flop combos = 50*49*48 / 3! = 19,600
Flops with our card = P x y = 2 * 4 * 4 * 12 ranks for x * 11 ranks for y / 2! orders x-y ranks = 2,112
Our odds to flop a set (nothing more) are 2,112 / 19,600 = ~1 in 9.28
Let's assume 9 handed. There are 47*46*45*44*43*42*41*40*39*38*37*36*35*34*33*32 / (2^8 * 8!) opponent holdings possible.
The odds 2 other villains have sets:
3*2 * 3*2 * 43*42*41*40*39*38*37*36*35*34*33*32 / (2^8 * 2! * 6!)..
18 * 56 / (47*46*45*44) = 1,008 / 4,280,760
~= 0.0002355
~1 in 4,246.8
The odds only 1 villain has a set:
3*2 * 45*44*43*42*41*40*39*38*37*36*35*34*33*32 * 2 ranks / (2^8 * 7!) = 8*2*3*2 / (47*46) - 1,008 / 4,280,760 = 96/2,162 - (discount the already counted 3 sets on flop) 1,008 / 4,280,760
~=0.044168
~1 in 22.64 chances
So if you have a pocket pair, chances in isolation here:
You flop a set: 1 / 9.28
You got outflopped by another set
(with bottom set): 1 / 22.52
(with middle set): 1 / 44.8
You get a PP next hand [KK-22]: 1 / 18.42
You flop another set: 1 / 9.28
You got outflopped again by another set
(with bottom set): 1 / 22.52
(with middle set): 1/44.8
All together (I will assume you were bottom set each time):
~= 1 in 804,500