I agree with masaraksh, cause I had this leak myself. I kept my river bluffs small thinking that will disguise them as value bets. It just doesn't work against level 1 live players. To make them fold you have to bet big. Make it 120+ (maybe even shove because you have around 165 left?) if bluffing this river.

These kind of bluffs do not translate well into forum posts. This doesn't have to work a lot to be profitable, but only you will know if it has a decent chance vs this villain. In a vacuum against a typical 1/2 player, this is -ev.

I do bluff lots of rivers successfully, though. The key is at 1/2 and 2/5, the bluff has less to do with what you can represent than it has to do with villain's tendencies.

One question to ask about this kind if bluff is whether villain will perceive it as "small". It's far larger than any bet that has been made thus far in the hand, so even though it is small in relation to the pot, $45 may be viewed at as a large bet (and therefore more threatening). The more competent the player, the less likely this is true, but it's a dynamic that ought not to be ignored when choosing buff sizes.

I'll just address the "turn call too spewy?" question with a resounding no, it's not...with $72 in before the turn added to the $60 from the $20 bet and 2 callers, you'll need $20 to call to win $132, meaning you'll need to have 20/(132+20) = 13.16% equity. There are 9 clubs in the deck, 7 of which give you the stone cold nuts, and 46 unknown cards, giving us a 15.22% shot of hitting an unbeatable hand. And unless the villain flopped a set the 5c and Qc may as well be the nuts.

I also don't know if villains necessarily had club draws. Juiced up man could easily have 9-8, 8-6, 6-4, 10-9, etc given he's been playing any two so I wouldn't be so concerned that they're stealing outs. Whether you would want to raise the turn or not is up to you but folding is bad. I'd personally have flatted the turn as well.

Why would you think turn call is too spewy? We're getting immediate odds of 6.5:1. Even if one of the other guys is on the same flush draw we're still getting the immediate odds we need to chase, let alone the massive implied odds we have. Folding the turn would be horribad.

ETA: ^^^ other guy beat me to it

i would lead the flop alot. After checking and seeing a $10 bet, i'd x/r big and follow through on any turn heads up ( maybe not a J).

V fit-fold mid 50s rec player semi-competent, betsizing tell raise (22-99 = $8) MP1, two horribad callers to me in BB, A6cc ES $200
Villain’s range:
22-TT, A8s+, A9o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs, T9s
Horribad callers’ range:
22-QQ, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K5o+, Q2s+, Q7o+, J2s+, J7+, T2s+, T6o+, 94s+, 97o+, 84s+, 86o+, 74s+, 76, 63s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s

Calling here is fine. No sense in 3betting since we have very little fold equity given villain’s stronger range and callers’ loose tendencies

Flop (Jc 7c 5s) pot ($32). Hero checks, Villain bets $10, both other players call. Hero…
Pot is now $62 and it’s $10 for us to call. We can consider a c/r semi-bluff but lets look at opponents’ ranges first

Villain:
This bet sizing increases the likelihood of weaker hands in his range, particularly weak made hands, but everything we put him on pf is still possible.
• Top pair hands like AJ, KJ, QJ, JT go down in likelihood since they would tend to bet larger
• Hands like 99, 88, 66 go up in likelihood since their weakness correlates with this bet size
• The likelihood of air hands without 2 overs goes down, hands like AT, A9, A8, KT assuming we give villain enough credit to know that this bet will certainly get called thus making betting with these hands unlikely. The same is true for underpairs 44-22
• The likelihood of air hands with 2 overs is not really changed by his bet. Hands like AK, AQ, KQ
• The likelihood of flush draws isn’t high since we hold the Ac. He could have KQcc, or KTcc.
• T9cc is a big draw, not very likely given the pf raise and small flop bet, then again it’s villain dependent
• Sets (JJ, 77, 55) that are scared of losing action are possible, though unlikely since villain would be inclined to bet bigger given the possible flush draw. Sets also unlikely just b/c they are freaking hard to get. His betsizing tell reduces the chance of JJ that much more

The other two players’ ranges are still very similar:
• Any flush or straight draw, even combo draws, 32cc through AKcc. I put such strong draws in their range b/c we expect them to play passively, assuming loose-passive is what OP means by “horribad”
• Any J, 7, or 5 from their pf range
• Possibly even J7, 75, or J5s for 2 pair playing passively but highly unlikely
• Any pp 66, 88-TT, QQ. QQ less likely with no raise pf or on the flop, but still possible given passive tendencies


So when considering a semi-bluff c/r we have to think about what parts of opponents’ ranges will fold/call/raise
We can expect the preflop raiser to
• Fold any made hand weaker than top pair like TT-88, 66
• Fold overcards with no flush draw like AK, AQ, KQ
• Fold those rare AT, A9, A8, KT, 22-44 hands
• Call his unlikely KQcc, KTcc, T9cc hands
• At least call if not raise his sets JJ, 77, 55 (unlikely)

We can expect the other two players to
• Fold their weak hands like 2 overs, middle pair and bottom pair hands, gutshots, and pps that didn’t hit a set TT and lower
• At least call if not raise QQ, JJ, 77, 55, J7, 75 (all unlikely holdings)
• Call all oesd, fd, fd+sd, pair+fd hands
• Call all top pair hands

The drawback to semi-bluffing is that we will be in a tough spot after getting called if we don’t hit the turn since we will be oop, although opponents figure to be weak/passive enough to give us a free card when they have top pair and not turn their draws into a bluff. If they have 2pair+ they will likely bet small relative to the pot thus giving us good odds to call along with good implied odds since they figure to call a big bet when we hit our flush. Also in favor of semi-bluffing is the fact that we often win the pot right there given how weak our opponents’ ranges are and how often they’ll be folding. A significant portion of our opponents’ calling range are weaker draws which we have in bad shape. There’s a chance we both make our draws and we win their stack or we both miss and we win with ace high since opponents are unlikely to turn their missed draw into a bluff. If someone has a jack we’re not in bad shape with 12 outs

I like a c/r semi-bluff here

i don't think this is true here. It's a multiway pot on a draw heavy board, any good hand would either bet more or raise. if anyone has J9 beat here, they should be embarrassed. Given that, even if i get called after x/r'ing, i'd bet the turn big'ish. I think any pair that calls the flop can't call the turn bet, and alot of the other hands that call the flop are worse flush draws.

If you're saying all 3 villains are likely to 3bet this flop with JT or better, I disagree. That's very aggressive for 1/2 nl and would take a good read to know that

But yeah firing the turn would get top pair hands to fold a decent amount of the time, particularly if it's an overcard (only the K and Q since A puts us in front anyway). A big bet on the turn might chase away smaller flush draws which is an argument for just calling the flop to increase the chance of getting to the river cheap and letting opponents hit lower flushes, but that depends on if villains will be willing to fold the fd for a big bet