This is a 1-2 game but both me and villan are regs in the 2-4 game when it runs..
Villan is pro gambler (not necessarily poker) and a pretty decent player who has a good all around game, although Imo can be spewy in this smaller game. Generally taggy, maybe a bit looser than tag (I'm sure if we had stats he would be described as lag by inet players, but live it's obv different and 30 vpip is not particulaly high)
There is one other decent player at the table, a 2-5 reg from a different casino, who i have played with a few times. The rest of the table is pretty soft....
Hero is definitely viewed as tag by main villan, and has needled hero before about being a pro (im not a pro) but in my mind this indicates he views me as a decent player....

The hand: 7 handed: Hero (270ish) is Utg+1 with 89hh and makes it 8... I could go bigger 6x usually, but I want to go multiway here so I think 4x is fine.
Btn calls (passive older guy, easy pickings really) villan in sb calls, (covers hero)
Flop comes Ac,8s,3h (pot is ~ 26)
Villan checks, hero bets 16 btn folds villan calls.
So I am expecting villan to have an ace here alot, and at the moment expect he has a weak ace, a5suited ir something like that (I'm not putting on a direct hand, but that kind of range a10 down I suspect) not sure what else he could have other than a stone reverse float which seems a stretch...

Pot is ~58 turn is 2c
Villan checks
Hero bets 34 ( I expect villan to fold small aces here, especially vs my image and any random 8 he got here with) I'm basically turning my hand into a bluff as I dont believe I have much sdv vs his range.
Villan calls

Pot is now 126 river is 9c
Villan checks
Hero has about 220 left.
Hero bets 64.....
I am now trying to extract value from an ace that villan has, I don't think he plays sets or aces up this way, because I'm sure he would expect me to check back aj or worse on most rivers, so would want to c/r turn or lead the river looking for value...
I'm not worried about the flush, and I doubt villan thinks I have a flush, I expect he puts me squarely on a10-ak which is were I have him also.... I bet small hoping to induce a call from an ace....

Villan shoves.....
Hero is sick, wtf to check raiseing this river...
Initially I look at this as a polarising bet, he is clearly trying to rep the flush here, but I just don't believe he gets here with a flush, especially with Ac on the flop...
As mentioned earlier sets and two pairs don't make much sense....
Villan knows he is polarising his range here,and knows I know that, can he therfore be merging and doing this with ak? Aces up? Sets? You would think usually raising any hand that aaa beats here is pretty mergey with the line I have taken. Villan should have zero bluffs here although if he did have he very capable of a c/r river bluff, but I'm struggling to find a value hand that makes sense, I suspect villan knows this and therefore could be suspecting I will call with ak, and will have that beat, where does that leave my two pair....?
Hero called....

Im happy for thoughts on all streets, although I'm not looking for generic llsnl advice....this is a straightforward fold vs many villans on river, it's a straightforward don't bet the turn vs many villans also.
I have tried to give as much detail on villan and hero's history and have tried to encapsulate the levelling thats going on here...

I don't like your reasoning for your preflop raise size. Your open-raise size should be the same regardless of your hand. It's so much harder to balance two different open-raise sizes than to just have one.

Should be checking behind this turn. If you're double barreling this hand as a bluff, you're bluffing way too much. You don't have to win every hand. You should choose hands to double barrel here that have a 4, 5, or club in them.

As played on turn... I think river is a fold but I could go either way. I mean we're the only ones who can reasonably have a flush and he's still jamming on us. Our range is so much less capped that middle two pair is pretty far down the list of hands we can have so it's a safe fold. I'd rather call with AQ or similar than this hand.

Safe to fold river.

Turn is easiest check back ever. Board is super dry. His flop calling range is super Ace heavey.

He is not folding and Ace on that board, especially if he thinks you would check back an Ace on river.

Also agree, I don't like raising smaller size OOP to go multi-way pre. 89xx just isn't strong enough to show a profit with small open raise in loose 1/3 games, from EP

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It's 1/2. I'm totally fine with raising to $8 with everything at 1/2.

Depends where you play. $8 is going 6-7 ways on average where I play.

But guys who raise connectors and small pairs to $8 and AK - and premiums to $12+ are my favorite.

Keep standard size best you can. Adjusting upwards if you have to iso limpers.

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I usually use a strategy of 4x+1bb for each limper; that way my raises don't correlate to hand strength and it's just a binary distinction of raising or non-raising hands.

I think opening 98ss from UTG+1 is too loose. You're going to be oop with a speculative hand. I love playing this from the HJ or better but as the second person to act at a full ring game, I'm folding this pre.

The logic behind this is just so bad, as others have said.

As to the levelling war, you know the guy and we don't, you have the history that you think is in play. As you prob know, the generic advice is to fold here, but I have a couple of guys I'd snap this off against. But those aren't players I would describe as good.

Yes you could have backdoored the flush, but tbh you should have very few hands here. If V actually thinks you are a TAG he wouldn't give you every combo of baby Axs or even baby PP from EP. So (possibly) he's putting you on a big ace or (less likely combo-wise) AA/88.

BTW if you think V can have A5s, then he can also have A8s, A3s, 88, 33, and eventually A2s and A9s come into play. None of those hands would feel the need to raise a dry board before the river. Also AJ/AT type hands that simply flatted an EP open "from a TAG" aren't raising the river. (If he did, please stop thinking he's a good player.)

My turn bet is a bluff here, expecting villan to fold most of his bare aces, villan certainly folds a10 down to this 2nd barrell Imo hence the turn bet...
Vs a usual 1-2 villan I wouldn't barrell here, but vs this player with my rep vs him I think this is reasonable.... I could be wrong,
My question with the river raise really is can he be mergeing here and do we beat enough of his merged range to make the call.
The open was to 4x I often raise 5x or 6x based on stack size and villans in the hand, not based on the strength of my holding.... I am happy going multiway with this hand vs this table so kept the open small, but still want to be able to play for stacks If we flop the world.

The question isn't if he can bluff, because I don't think he has any bluffs left, but I can be bluffing... Although villan will probably suspect I bluff infrequently....... Villan knows he is polarising his range, and knows I know this and should therfore call based on his frequencys....he can therfore merge his value raise range, hoping to be called by ak for example....do I best enough of this merged range to make the call?

this was like playing Mad Libs, Poker Version.

"I don't think he has any bluffs left." Doesn't this end the hand for most of us, 95%+ time?

Raising AK in this spot is turning his hand into a bluff. You're never calling with KK-, prob never AQ. He has to know you'll only call with 2p+.

We've all been in spots with some rando who accidentally merged his range, but at no point would we describe those players as good. (Or at least the hand wasn't well played.) If he thinks you're bluffing, why in the world would he raise? Why would he flat AK the whole way just to shove river?

Maybe he has a random airball and was bored. Again, I know 1-2 guys I will stack off TP against. A guy l/c deuces, flop Axx, his line was c/c c/c c/s. I sighcall, MHIG. If this is one of those guys, you know that and we don't. But for your V, this is a spewtastic line with no hand no draw.

Maybe I will try and ask the question another way: villan will assume we have an ace here most of the time. By c/r the river his range should be polarised to basically flush or nothing.....but given he thinks we have an ace, could he be mergeing that value range and doing this with say aces up, trying to get called by Ak-aq.....
We have a two pair, which is ahead of our expected range here, but not necessarily ahead of his merged range...... This is were I kind of get stuck, trying to define what hands he could be mergeing with here and are we ahead of that....

In terms of villan he is an ex tournament pro who now makes his living as a book maker, he is an accomplished player, and will play in the highest stakes available on any given day, which includes beyond hero's usual 2-4 game up to 5-10 if (another casino) is offering them, he also plays in a big omaha game, and whilst I have no direct evidence I assume he is a decent winner at all stakes he plays..
It is safe to say this is not your average 1-2 donk, and therfore shouldn't be a total spew on the river, but also shouldn't be much of anything he can realistically c/r river with....

I don't think aces up qualifies as a merged range. It's fat value land. 1p like AK/AQ would be merged, and I can't see most V's playing 1p this way. 2p is a standard get value spot, and I think 2p is the minimum of his non-bluffing range.

This guy mught be much better than the average Joe in our games, but doing this with 1p is either accidentally or not, turning his hand into a bluff. We see it almost never. Some people might say that polarized means nuts or bluff, I don't see it that way, I see it as big hand vs bluff. So I think he's polarized, and the talk about merged ranges is imo more intellectual stimulation than a practical, actionable HH.

333 beats you. Thats the only hand i can think of.

Obviuosly you cant fold the river. Hand is well played imo. I would sometimes bet the turn too and sometimes check the flop

Villain has you on an ace and says he can beat an ace. Can he rely on you to bet the river with TPGK? I like villain for 54s in this spot and letting you just keep firing since you have shown a willingness to do so. I see AXs of heats and spades that make 2p by the river. Sets are possible too. Only thing I don't see here really is any 2p combos we beat. He could be bluffing too. We are looking at calling $150-$160 to win a little more than $400 so not a horrible price but not good enough to snap call. Overall I think this is a fold but it is close enough that it wouldn't take much of a tell to make it a call. I hate stacking off with these 2 pair. I didn't play this hand to make 2 pair and don't usually win a big pot when I do.
With just $270 to start the hand, I prefer to just limp medium suited connectors early. I have two reasons. The first is if we raise and are 3-bet, we frequently have to fold because there will not be enough in implied odds to continue. The second is if we do connect and some one else does too, it will no be hard to get all the money in. It rarely is at $1/$2.

You know you are in the weeds if you are saying someone has a polarized/merged range at 1/2. Stop over thinking the game. If you are playing 98s as a standard play here, you're playing too many weak hands in EP. Easy fold on the river.