Game is 2/5. The table is your pretty standard 2/5 game, with a mix of tight-passives, a couple decent younger guys that likely aren't pro, and a few looser/bad players.

Hero UTG (covers) is a mid/late 20s white guy. Should probably be viewed as solid/a bit on the laggy side if you had watched this session, but Villain has only been here for 20 minutes.

Villain MP ($1000) is also a mid/late 20s white guy. Definitely a capable player, likely a winner in this game, but probably isn't a professional. We've only played together maybe once before, with Villain appearing to play pretty straight forward TAG. No real reads other than that.

This is Hero's last hand after a decent winning session. I have found a rack and placed in front of me on the rail, but didn't say out loud that I was leaving or anything. Not sure if that's relevant or not to Villain, although it likely effected my decision making in retrospect.

Hero is dealt: TT

Pre-flop:
Hero UTG raises to $20, 1 call, Villain in MP calls, CO calls, SB calls. 5 to the flop.

Flop (~$100): 986
SB checks, Hero bet's $60, 1 fold, Villain calls, rest fold.

Turn (~$220): K
Hero checks, Villain bet's $135, Hero calls.

River (~$490): 3
Hero checks, Villain bet's $350...

Thinking back, I probably should have bet the turn. Thoughts on checking versus betting here?

I think you should be checking this flop a lot, probably always considering it's 5 handed. I think it's debatable whether to call down 3 streets after checking, but there's not many better runouts to do so. Since you bet, I think that since he didn't raise the flop, calling turn is good, and you have to call river. He will occasionally have a slowplayed monster, but he should very frequently turn over some bricked combo draw.

OTR it's $350 to win $840, or 2.4:1

1/3.4 = 29.4%

So we've gotta be good here around 30% of the time to break even.

There are 9 combos of sets, 2 combos of 98s, 2 combos of 86s, and 4 combos of 75s. Not sure if he's calling my raise with T7s, probably not though? and I block T7s anyway.

For a total of about 17 combos that beat me.

There are 6 combos of 77, 3 combos of 87s, 3 combos of 67s, 3 combos of 97s, 2 combos of JTs, and 2 combos of QTs. I think that it's pretty debatable/doubtful that he turns 97s into a bluff, since it has a decent amount of SDV so I will exclude those hands.

So OTR, he's got 15 combos that I beat that also have a pair, and then 4 combos that are actually complete air in JTs and QTs.

With limited history, I've actually got very little idea how often he is either slow playing OTF, or turning a pair into a bluff OTR. But with a rainbow board and 2 players left to act behind him, I can see that he might want to slow play some sets and 75s a good portion of the time? Not sure about two pairs though.

I'll assume that he slow plays his 3/4 of sets and all of his straights, and raises his two pairs OTF. So by the river, he's got roughly 11 combos of sets and straights.

I'll also assume that he turns his 67 hands into a bluff and checks with hands that have a pair of 8's or better. So he's got 4 combos of JTs and QTs and then 3 combos of 67s for bluffs. Or 7 combos of bluffs.

So with 11 value combos and 7 bluff combos, looks like he will be bluffing...

7/(7+11) = around 39% of the time.

So based on this analysis it seems like a pretty clear call. Thoughts?

Tough spot, agree on the combo analysis, though I think 6 JJ should be included since he might not 3-bet your UTG opening range.

Don’t see many KX floating that flop, perhaps KhTh. I think betting the turn is too thin based on your ranges. Live, I might c/f turn based on most straight-forward players using position to peel a free turn, especially with a pair or pair/combo draw.

Hero c/c turn has to be viewed as a strong range/line, so I think his river sizing could easily be max valuing. I’d weigh previous history more than the math and fold.

I think you need to discount the bluffs somewhat. Your analysis is assuming villain will always bluff with an OESD and OESD+pair that calls flop. On turn villain may take a free card. On river it's even more likely villain may put hands that don't want to bloat pot but won't give up every time in your range. You don't have to discount the bluffs much before this is a tossup situation.

You also should allow for some oddly played better hands and some air bluffs with hands that floated flop but without a better read you can't really put a number on it. The best you can do there is say that for a straight forward TAG there are probably a few more oddly played better hands then air bluffs.

Overall I lean towards a fold but could easily talk myself into a call at the table if I sense any weakness.

i think in-game, my initial thoughts would be:

V can have a lot of bluffs here as mentioned above. hands like 87s, 76s, JTs/QTs (though we block) are all reasonable hands he can show up with here (pre-flop/flop/too weak for SDV by river so not checking back).

it seems like villain should be raising his sets a lot on the flop - and given we have pegged him as a likely winning TAG player - i really lean toward him raising flop a lot with a set. board is coordinated and there are 3 people left behind to act after him.

based on these things i think i find a call here but it is a tough spot i think.


any history on villain specifically regarding maybe semi-bluffs shown or sets? it would be helpful to know if villain has raised those types of hands, been aggressive with semi-bluffs, and maybe sizing used.