1/3 NLHE at the Bellagio
8-handed / 4am

Table is slightly better than average with only 1 fish / rarely any 3bets / Most hands are opened raised to $12

Hero: MP / Mid 20s / TAG image / Won a few pots with a raise pre and a cbet / Haven't shown down any bluffs

Villain: BB / Late 20s / Covers Hero with $350 / Talking with most of the dealers and knows a few players at the table / Maybe slightly too tight but overall seems decent

OOTH:

Folds around to Hero in MP who opens to $12 with [A K]
BTN and BB both call

Flop: ($37) K T 2

BB checks, Hero cbets $20, BTN folds, BB calls

Turn: ($77) K T 2 Q

BB checks, Hero bets $40, BB calls

River: ($157) K T 2 Q 2

BB checks, Hero ??

How often are we firing a 3 bullet here?
The Q isn't a great card but after BB checks the river this can't be far from a good run out for us. If we can't triple barrel here what run out can we? Or are we always checking back?

Could we just check back on the turn and plan to call any non Q, T, or 9 rivers?

Thanks!

I expect you to be good here most of the time, but what hands do you beat that villain will call 3 streets with? It begins and ends with KJ, as I don't believe JQdd/AQdd are hands they could have very often at all.

Just check and take it down vs a random flush draw, it's a disaster if we either get raised or value own ourselves otr.

flop and turn need to be bigger.

As played i'm betting river bigger to get a call from a king.

If you bet flop and turn big you would bet river smaller. Your hand is under repped so he might try and pick you off with a weak king. You got an amazing run out and 2pair + should be raising turn to try and set up a river jam.

I like bet/folding $60-75 on the river, which I think gets called by all kinds of worse Kx and QJ/AQ. You need to be called wider than KJ for a value bet to be +EV (assuming Villain plays KT and KQ the same way) so size accordingly.

Agree that you should bet bigger on flop and turn.

I assume you're good here. I'd bet ~$125 and try to get value from a king, unless I wasn't ready to call a x/r from Villain. If Villain is tight as your image suggests, I don't expect a x/r on the river. Possible, but not likely. Nothing wrong with checking back and taking it down.

Given a "tight" BB, you probably want to check this back. You'd want to bet if BB had hands like K5s or K8o in his range. Not a tight guy who probably has more two pair hands than one pair hands to call you with (not to mention random monsters like AdJd and boats possibly going for an x/r)..

Thanks for the responses.

As played I bet $75 and BB tank folded. The BB and a buddy of his sitting next to him talked about the hand for the next 30 minutes debating whether or not he should have called. His buddy guessed Hero had AK and then BB was adamant that we would have checked back with AK and he thought it was either AJ, KQ, or a busted flush draw, basically nuts or air.

His response shocked me so I've been wondering if I played the hand correctly.
Its tricky because I think the only hand we get a call from here that we beat is exactly KJ. But because the BB only called both streets, I don't think he ever has AJ, J9 or a set here and shouldn't he raise with two pair???

The point isn't how rare it is for them to have you beat. You should only value bet rivers when checked to you when they have more worse hands to call you with than hands that beat you. The problem is if you have a really aggressive/bluffy image, a tight player is likely to become passive and trappy with big hands. And if you have a tight image, a tight player is likely to fold QJ or maybe even KJ in that spot. It's a close decision, and I don't think betting here is terrible.

The bluffier our image and the more the board misses our supposed raising range and his calling range, the more we should be betting on the river, imo. Sounds like we have a fairly tight image, and while the flush draw did bust, a typical raising range smashes this board (take all broadway hands and really only a handful of them are mediocre by the river whereas the rest of them are fairly solid), noting that his calling range also smashes this board (unless we are targetting specifically KJ which is like one of the few weaker hands that could think of calling).

I'm guessing it's pretty thin, but then again I have a tight nit image and typically feel I can usually only go for two streets anyways (and setting up a bluffcatcher is sometimes more profitable with this type of image).

ETA: Also, with only 1 fish at the table, unless he's horribad, it's highly unlikely this table is beatable.

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