This is the most profitable way to play a set against a possible flush draw regardless of the immediate results for this hand.
The raise on the flop is too big. You’ve got top set and if he's on a flush draw you want to bet an amount that if he calls he’s getting overpriced on his flush draw.
You are drawing too. You've got 7 outs on the next card and 10 outs on the turn to beat his potential flush if he makes it. He on the other hand has got 7 clean outs only twice but he doesn't know it. He’s playing his hand believing he’s got 9 outs to flush. So, he will call and you actually want him to call. In this instance I will call his $45 flop bet and raise him back $110 more. The pot will be $260 and he will have to call $110, so he's getting 2.5:1 for the next card. The pot becomes $370 if he calls. Now on the turn with one card to come if he checks I will bet all-in $205 on the turn making the pot $575 and he will have to call $210 while getting only 2.7:1 odds with one card to come. You see, on every street he's not getting the correct price to draw but he doesn’t know it if he’s a fish and you make money on every street. Don't forget, you are drawing too and if the stacks would be deeper and the flush card comes but pairs the board you are in position to create an empty seat on that table.
Now, if the flush card falls on the turn and he checks, you check behind and draw for free. If you pair the board on the river you're home free. If not, you got to be 100% he was flushing in order to don't pay him off. It depends what you know.
When you’re a hold’em player, you get outdraw sometimes. You want to build a big pots when you’ve got a good hand. Usually you need the best hand when moving money in the middle. You can’t help if you get outdraw. If your opponent has the best hand at the last card, he would have had to have the worst hand until that card. He would have to outdraw you to take the pot, and the player who stays on the worst hand, with the hopes of catching a winner and paying the wrong price, is going to go broke in the long run.
Che
Last edited by always_tilting; 07-08-2010 at 05:40 AM.