I've been noticing there are a lot of pots I can be stealing and I steal almost none. At 1-2 and 1-3 the harbingers are single-digit flop bets, or a guy betting the same amount he bet the street before.

1-3

V is a bad rec player. The worst hand I saw him limp/call was 96s, he came in for a lot of limp/calls, a few raises. I got the feeling he probably won his high school home mtt's often enough but didn't really understand live cash too well.

1 limp, V in LP raises to $12, 1 caller behind him, I call with 66 in the SB, the limper calls.

At this point I was just mining, I usually don't like being oop when mining but we were deep and he was bad. The guys are always bad, we happened to be a little deeper than normal, ~$350.

Flop ($45) 8 5 4

I check, limp/caller checks, V bets $12, button folds, Hero...

He bet the same amount he bet pre, which now is ~ 1/4 PSB and is really weak. He probably also never considered flops to not c-bet, so he's wide and weak. In the past I used to call and "hang on" and basically just hope bricks fell and I won at showdown. I wanted to raise here.

Two questions I have though:

The raise sizing, and why?

If we raise and get called, are there turn cards we just shut down on? With overpairs I definitely expect a bet bigger than $12 otf, so if I do get called it's some kind of unpaired broadway hand, possibly with the diamond draw. So a turn Ace I probably shut down on, and even if he doesn't have Ax he won't steal, he'll probably be scared of the Ace too and just check behind, I give him a free river card but I don't hand away the pot. Are there other turn cards to just go into c/f mode?

I don't get the point of the raise. You start out talking about stealing situations, but you have the best hand most of the time here. I love a raise here if you have T9s, but 66 you can just call down (maybe give up if he 3-barrels). A raise here is purely to find out where you're at (i.e., is bad).

66 pretty much are rags. I don't feel confident that 66 will hold up on most showdowns. Tons of scare cards will hit. The cards I need to improve put 4 to a straight out there so I don't get paid if I hit them or only get paid by better. And V bet so small he almost priced himself with unpaired overs to hit ott. And if your plan is to c/c the whole way or c/f some, that means we're checking ott and that means V easily priced himself in to see 2 cards with unpaired overs.

66 is much stronger than rags. It's a marginal hand, but learning how to realize the value of marginal hands is a key poker skill. You can do that here by just calling. Bluff with true garbage.

I don't care about giving him odds or not because protecting your hand is another overrated concept along with finding out where you're at. The pot's $60 and your equity is probably $35 or $40. You don't need to dump a bunch of money into the pot OOP to protect $35 of equity.

I'm with bobman, he's probably weak and there's a chance we've got the best hand. I call the flop and re-evaluate. I'm planning to bet most rivers (any non A/K/Q) if the villain checks back OTT.

I never said any of that. I'd appreciate if you guys read what I included instead of making up your own stuff.

That's what I was looking for. Q+ being a card making me slow down or shut down and J- not being concerned with. I didn't know where to draw the line. I knew I didn't like an Ace, I wasn't sure how to consider a K, Q, or J.

Maybe, maybe not. Part of the reason to raise here is because we can set ourselves up for later streets when he calls the flop and DOES his his over card on the turn. Calling here sets us up awkwardly a lot on the turn when he DOESN'T bet the same amount, or something else that doesn't seem so weak.

Let's say a queen rolls off and now our c/c mode looks and feels like garbage, especially when he decides to bet a more significant amount because we know he doesn't know good sizing. Will his larger than flop bet sizing but also still weak-sizing mean strength or weakness again?

It's silly to think of a raise on this flop as merging, but it really does. There are absolutely times where we'll get value because he'll call with his overs sometimes, but he'll often fold his medium pairs. A raise sets us up to play for stacks if we hit and he gets sticky, but also allows us to take the pot away on unfavorable run outs since we can actually rep something > one pair.

Being out of position sucks normally when we take an aggressive line and then slow down because many opponents pounce on that sort of thing, but we're talking about someone who almost certainly won't do that. We can often raise the flop and then check either the turn or river and get to showdown since we freeze a lot of further action.

To be fair, if we raise the flop I don't think there are a lot of run outs where I'm not going to barrel, unless the turn river come AA or something silly. But we shouldn't be doing this against sticky opponents / calling stations anyways.

^ I wasn't saying Q+ is the answer, that was just the only post responding to what I asked.

I wasn't concerned he had hands ahead of 66. So the raise was to make him pay too much of a price if he wanted to continue. He bet $12 which made him only require 17% to continue, when I raised I required him to have 22% equity to continue, so if he wants to continue he's now doing so less profitably, even unprofitably.

But my plan was incomplete, not knowing what runouts were good for me or not.

I would also just call here.

A few reasons.

1. A raise often gets villain to fold 6 outs; that's a good thing, but it's not good enough.
2. You will raise/fold; if villain 3-bets, it's gross and you have to fold your equity... sometimes you may even fold the best hand.
3. You are out of position.
4. If V calls the raise, you're playing a huge pot.
5. If V calls the raise, it's unclear if you're ahead or behind.
6. If V calls the raise, it's unclear what turn and river cards actually help him.

Bottom line, V doesn't really call with much worse or fold much better. You're in a horrible position oop almost anytime V calls, and, when he raises, you're forced to fold even though you have OK equity against most ranges and may even be ahead of some hands in his raising range. Getting villain to fold 6 outs with his over card hands is a fine outcome, but that's not sufficient.

1) I don't know. I see so many $20-$50 pots with garbage taking it at SD after a ton of checks or really weak c-bets taking them. It feels like I'm foregoing too much by not stealing some of these because right now I'm stealing none of them.

2) A non-diamond 7 is all that really improves me to a point where I bet for value. 3 outs isn't enough equity that I hate having to fold to a raise and therefore avoid reopening the betting. And he's never b/3b a hand like AKdd.

3) I did not like being oop.

4) I'd call $450+ a huge pot, $125 I'd call medium.

5) I was pretty confident once he bet $12 otf I was ahead.

6) That was the lacking part of my plan.

I don't agree with most of that but #3 and #6 are enough to consider doing something else. I didn't want to see an Ace, didn't care about any card T-, but didn't know what to think about paint.

EDIT Did not see above 2 posts b4 finally posting my response.

1st: Kudos for raking the pot. I mention it because so many people do not & they should take notice to the fact.

So many say a raise is spew, so I need some help with this one. OP says V's weak raise screams Broadway cards & he later discounts V having a J. With that being the case, even if V has a J with his A, OP is a 75% favorite.

If OP calls, V is getting 4.67:1 giving V an overlay on his flop bet if OP checks behind ott & V misses, taking a free card. Overlay is richer if 3rd player calls.

I remember reading a reply by Garick to a post where he stated that if V bets the same amount on a later street that he bet on the previous one, he's raising damn near 100% of the time. I don't know if he meant PF to flop though.

I have not studied Janda's book, Applications of No-Limit Hold Em, but from what I've seen posted, it appears he goes into great depth on this type of situation with mathematical applications. Has anyone studied this book? From what I read about it, it's not a book you just read, grasp, and apply.

Anywho, I think calling gives V exactly what he wants - the right price to see 2 more cards when nobody improves ott.

So, having said that, vs. many posters who disagree [and whose opinions I respect] let me say that I would bet enough to give V no more than 2:1 on his money IF 3rd player folds, so I bet $60.00. With the $56 pot [$1 more in rake] that gives him slightly less than 2:1.

The stacks are deep enough that V now has to be concerned with the bet he will face ott if he believes he has 2 overs to OP's PP.

This is what usually works for me. However, just 2 days ago I flopped middle set on a board of Q94, 1st player bet $25 & I raised to $75 & 3rd player called with nothing but AJ.

Who calls $75 cold with nothing but a flush draw, backdoor str8 draw & 1 over, getting < 3:1 pot odds? I won, but still - maybe there's some credence to just calling down here.

Still - if we firmly believe that we have the best hand [which I believe OP does] - why do we let V set the price he pays to see the turn? Especially when we're OOP & will ck the turn if we don't improve.

This is obviously the key here. A 1/4 pot size bet from a rec player is a kind of deer in the headlights bet. His range is heavily weighted toward bare overs.

A bad rec also wont be floating flops to bluff turns after we have shown so much 'strength' so he either folds out all of these hands with overs and we win the pot right here (A good result) or he will be playing his hand face up with a range we are doing well against in a bloated pot. (A decent result but it may force us into making some toughish decisions on the river)

A raise isn't horrible, but a call is much better.

This isn't a hand where you're heads up and villain is donk leading 1/4 pot.

This is a multi-way hand on a very connected wet board where V raised pre and c-bet 4-way and where we have the worst position and where there are still 2 live villains in the hand.

Sure, he bet small, but that's just one variable.

I think a small raise can be ok to fold out his equity if most ppl don't have an overpair or flush draw with this sizing if we don't expect V to make too many mistakes on turns and rivers when we just call.

The button already folded amd the limp caller will be folding a massive chunk of his range when we raise. (I see this as another benefit to raising. Otherwise we will be stuck check/folding just about every turn and river)

The $12 bet is only one variable but it is a variable that narrows his range pretty substantially.

So if I called and we went HU to the turn. What are you doing on A turns, what on T- turns, and what on paint turns?

Start by checking.

This is a joke right?

95% of LLSNL players.

I can't come to terms with how letting V do w/e he wants on every street and move along to the river profitably the entire time is a good move for me.

He's setting his price every street, which has FE apparently because no one wants to say what turn cards are good or bad, which I assume means check/tell yourself you were ahead of his c-bet range otf/fold.




C/f otf, you didn't hit the set and are oop. That's the best advice I guess.

First, you stated that V is a "Bad Rec Player". Bad Rec Players will often slow-play straights, sets, 2 pair, and over pairs on wet boards like this. Bad Rec Players will make crazy moves and bet sizes that "everyone knows" are stupid. Bad Rec Players will also check down the turn and river when they miss, and often check it down when they flop a low straight, set, 2 pair, or over pair - because since you called, you "must" already have the straight and are slow-playing them back. Bad Rec Players are unreadable, and are found at every live low-stakes NL table in the country.

I think that bobman0330 said it best, you have $40 of equity in the pot, no need to shovel in a bunch of money to "protect" your equity. Yes, calling here is passive, but against an unknown / unreadable Bad Rec Player, this is not a terrible play. Speaking from experience, my win rate has gone up significantly since I started simply calling down Bad Rec Players instead of overvaluing / overplaying my hand.

Here's a perfect example from last night where I did not follow my own advice, and paid for it. 1/2 game, V1 has $60, V2 has $80, I cover. V1 in EP makes it $8, 2 other callers, V2 in LP calls, SB calls, I am in BB with 68hh and a winning image and I call because what the hell, I close the action and I'm getting "pot odds", LOL. $42 in the pot after rake. Flop comes KhTh3s, I check, V1 bets $15, folds to V2 who calls, folds to me and I call with my naked flush draw and "pot odds". Turn is As, V1 checks, V2 bets $10 - WTF? I make them both weak so I raise to $80, putting them both all-in, how can they possible call that? They both call and they both turn over KT !!! They both flopped Top 2 and slow-played. Of course the river is a brick and I'm down $80 trying to out-level a couple of Bad Rec Players.

What I should have done was called the $10 turn bet, and V1 would have also called, and when the river bricks I'm only out $10, and if the third heart had hit I'm pretty damn sure they both would have called when I put them all in, because Bad Rec Players simply can't fold. In my experience I win money from Bad Rec Players by calling them down rather than overplaying my hand, and by raising big when my draws / 2 pairs hit because they "Can't Fold Now".

I think what you are looking for and how I would play the hand is to call on the flop and lead the turn with about half pot (30-40) on most cards if the pot goes heads up. If it doesn't go heads up then you are probably stuck c/f the turn and the river. I would lead the turn on any card other than a A,K,Q, and J and I might lead larger (50-60) if the turn is a diamond (whether or not you have one).

If your read is accurate, then I do believe he is generally weak with overcards. These types of Vs generally however do not barrel the turn with overcards and/or fire on the river. They generally check down unimproved which is what you are worried about since he is realizing his 6 card draw for cheap.
By leading the turn I find that many Vs will be willing to call with overcards such as AK,AQ,KQ despite not barreling with them if checked to. Also, these hands are less likely to bluff on the river if you bet the turn and then check the river when they do not improve.
If your read is off and the V actually does have many overpairs in his range, leading the turn half pot is still not that bad because many more passive Vs will not raise your bet on the turn and you get to realize your 6 out draw. It would be odd for the V to bet so small on the flop and then spring to life and raise a turn bet although obviously you would have to fold to a significant raise.

The reason for betting the turn larger on a diamond is that he very likely a single diamond while they are not many flushes because he raised preflop. He likely has all of the unsuited combos of broadways in his range with a single diamond. Overcards with the diamond are not likely to fold, so you want to bet a little larger in order to get value and make him less likely to bluff the river if he misses so you can realize your equity.

The reason for leading the turn instead of raising the flop is that it shows less strength and therefore lets you get value from overcards on the turn. It would be better to take a complete air hand to c/r the flop and try to take it down rather when you have a medium strength hand and turning it into a complete bluff.

The reason I don't check down the whole way is that it generally does not cause rec players to make many mistakes. They will not likely barrel the turn unimproved when you are calling on a blank. They get to realize their 24% equity with only a 1/4th pot bet on the flop. They will likely bet when they improve and they may even throw in a small bluffing frequency on the river since you checked the turn and the river. Rec players are much less likely to bluff and play aggressively when you show some aggression by leading the turn.

No. Call the flop and check/fold to reasonable turn bets. Probably call another very weak turn bet. The turn card only matters insomuch as how V acts - if he suddenly pots the turn on a king, then you just have an easier turn c/f.

You need to think this through more. You're realizing that V is probably pretty terrible at poker (after all, who bets c-bets 1/4 pot 4-way on this board?), and, even more important, he's playing his hand incredibly face-up (you feel fairly certain he has over cards).

Despite the fact that you expect him to play in a way that telegraphs his hand and hand strength, you worry that he's going to exploit you?

Your concerns about letting villain "set his price" and "do w/e he wants" ... are misplaced, and everything you're saying seems to suggest what is really upsetting you is the discomfort of playing oop - yes, it's tougher, but you need to be willing to play some poker. Calling this flop is far better than check/raising oop 3-way deep (SPR 8) against 2 live villains including the pre-flop raiser who c-bet 1/4 PSB on a wet connected middle-card board.

I think OP's assumption that V's 1/4 pot sized bet is overcards and overcards only is totally flawed. A bad rec can have ALMOST ANYTHING here. FPS like a c/r is just not worth it in these spots unless you have strong reads and history about what their sizing means.

Not sure why I didn't grunch this, but I'm in the just call flop camp for all the reasons others listed.

If the turn checks thru and the river blanks (no high cards) I think our hand works much better as a bluff catcher, so I would check/call at this point.

ETA: And yeah, just check/fold the turn on any card that doesn't improve our hand. This doesn't seem to be a guy who is double barrelling the turn with air once we call the flop.

GcluelessNLnoobG