Got into a debate with friend about the following hand: 8 handed 2/5 cash game playing deep Villian has $2400, Hero has $1,650 late night at Rio during WSOP. Villian has been playing a fairly loose but solid style. Hero has been more conservative playing fairly tight only getting out of line on occasion.

Utg fold
Utg+1 Raises to 20
+2 calls 20
HJ calls 20
CO folds
B(Hero) Calls with 7s7h
SB(Villian) Raises to $120
all fold to Hero who calls.

Flop 6s8s9c
Villian bets $200
Hero Calls
6s8s9cKc
Villian Checks
Hero Checks
6s8s9cKc5d
Villian bets 800
Should the Hero just call or go all in for $530 more?

Obv don't jam he could have T7! Probably his most likely hand I would say

Mic Check, not sure if you are being sarcastic, since the
'most likely hand" comment is a bit absurd but I do think this merits some discussion:

Argument For:
You have the near nuts, so of course you shove and hope he makes a hero call with a set or two pair or even an over pair. In rare case you are beat so be it.

Argument Against:
While it is highly likely that we have the best hand, the argument against is that the range that would check the turn and over bet 800 into a 700 pot on the river is highly polarized and that the only hands that would call would contain a 7, which would make it a negative EV shove. If you say they will also bet/call with sets then it becomes slightly positive at 55/45. If you also add 2 pair hands to bet call that size it is highly profitable. So the debate is whether you can confidently pin down their over bet to only have 7s or air and of those only call with a 7 or better.

Jam. He may level himself into thinking its a bluff and hero call with god knows what. The way this hand has played out so far all your ranges are stupid wide. He expects to get snapped off by a 7 but you have just enough chips left to make him think if you jam.

I think it's extremely unlikely V 3b pre with T7 and then checked the turn when a b/b/b line would easily get stacks in.

So we have the nuts. Failing to raise the nuts last to act on the river is a leak.

I am nitty as hell and have difficulty pulling the trigger for deepstacks but this is a slam dunk shove unless we know villain never does this without a 7.

what cretin would raise 2xpot out of sb with just T7... I think shove in case he levels into snapping you with a set or worse


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As played jam.

Consider a flop raise if you think he's good enough to fold an overpair.

If we had 69, 67 etc i would just flat. But since we have 77 we block and a shove is better. Its a big pot and he may level himself into thinking hes good. Which we are actually better because we block the only thing that beats us.

He basically never has T7 here. 3-bet pre with T7 is highly unlikely, and then taking a street off with the flopped nuts on a FD board against a Hero who has a ton of FDs and sets in his range is even more unlikely.

Seems more like an overpair OTF (or red AK that backed in to SDV), either of which may not call a shove, but why not try? We have the effective nuts, so there is almost no downside. We've already maxed rake, so even if he has the other 7s, 67s, or 78s for a chop, we're not out anything by shoving.

If he's good and UTG +1 folds to 3 bets pre then a squeeze isn't out of the question with 10-7, it is just too specific a hand to be worried. But even if he had 98, J10, overs with a flush draw, your hand has equity. And your hand really, really looks like a set. Looking at the 2 comments after mine I think the shove here is the right move.

Shove, AINEC.

Yes, I jam. I don't call the 3-bet pre, call the flop bet and then hit the card I want to not raise.

$530 into a pot of $2250? Is he really folding KK here? Shove all day everyday and don't listen to your friends advice anymore.

lol i got it now good one


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