Should i two pair into a bluff on river?
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 3
Recently sat down so i dont have many reads on oppents but villian does not seem to be scared of action and has raised flop a couple times.
2/5 game
effective stacks 500
OTTH
Villian in CO raises to 20
button calls
sb calls
Hero in BB calls with 3c4h
flop Qd4s3h
sb leads 40, i call and villian raises to 110, sb folds and i call
turn 5h
i check and villian checks back
river 5s
i check and villian bets 125
i am never calling here but would he ever fold AA to a shove?
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 451
This was assumed 100bb's poker. Your villian will not fold to your c/r shove because he has invited half of its stack into the pot. Even against a rock, he will tank for awhile.
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,919
Your shove would need to work about 60% of the time. I can't see most villains folding that often with an overpair on this board. He might fold AQ or KQ, but AA is pretty doubtful. What are you trying to represent? A random 5? A straight probably would have bet the turn. A5s and 65s are the only random 5 hands I could see you calling the raise with, but they're a tiny part of your range. If villain is intelligent he probably knows this and isn't folding. And most fish have trouble letting go of AA or KK in this spot.
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 6,237
Not a good situation for a bluff. There are just too many problems for it to be a good idea here without a good read on villain.
New table and unknown villain is two ways. There are more stations then weak players at 2/5. Shortish effective stacks mean you can't apply a lot of pressure to villain, it's less then $250 for him to call. And the play of the hand doesn't support your story, it's hard to represent a big hand when you check turn and don't lead river.
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 30,420
Raise flop
As played fold
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,010
Fold pre. 43o is trash.
First call pre is OK, though bottom two is a strong but vulnerable hand and I'd probably raise. Once V raises flop you must re-raise. He's saying he has a strong Q or an overpair (or a set of Qs), you can beat that range but there are very few good run outs for you.
No idea why you're not betting turn.
Fold river. V has put in half of his stack, I don't think he's folding an overpair. Generally very hard to get someone off of overpairs when you're 100 bbs deep. You need to be more like 200 bbs deep and against the right player to make that work.
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 14,512
Yeah, if you raise this river, you would have played it differently than I would have on every single street.
If I was villain, I never fold AA to this line. Anything that beats me is betting the river after I have checked the turn.
