2-5 NL. Hero has (~600) and villian has (~500). Villian raises from UTG+1 to 20. One MP caller. Hero calls from cutoff with AdQs.

Flop comes QdJh4d. Villian bets 30 and hero calls. Turn is 5s. Villian bets 50 and hero calls. River comes 6d. Gillian thinks for a little while then bets 110. What do I do?

Villian is moderately loose and moderately aggressive. Has been mixing it up with me and seeing the huge hands in taking him for. I think he has been trying to get back to me and has shown a little angry but starting to cheer up now that he isn't stuck.

go allin

there arnt many of his value hands that you can beat, mAybe Kq? But flush got there and all his big pairs preflop beat you JJ,KK,AA,
Tougt spot but i would fold here, unless you picked a sign of weakness or a tell that makes you think he is bluffing with hands like AK

Because it is so obviously a call and because it is one of those HHs that wouldn't be posted if H had won, I would fold.

You can't win every hand in poker and you can't fold every losing hand either.

call.
We're getting what looks like 3.2:1

We should be losing to 3x AA, 6x KK, 3x QQ, 3x JJ (although, both of these are discounted a bit based on sizing imo) KJdd, KTdd, JTdd, T9dd, and 1 other XXdd hand, and 3x 44. Oh and 2x QJs

So that's 25 combos that we reasonably lose to. And if we give him just the 8 combos of KQ, then we can profitably call.

Villain has to be really bad to bet KQ here. Seems a stretch.

I actually folded in the moment. Thinking any hand his bets will likely be value and I don't best many of his value hands. Just wanted to be sure I wasn't crazy for folding

Clear fold. Should have folded pre too. EP raise + call? Muck it. This would have been perfect for suited connectors, but you're fighting domination now.

So call with hands that are likely flopping a draw or have to hit 2 pair or better to win?

Can you please elaborate how such range makes it more profitable to call than with AQo?

EP raise and an overcall and AQo is insta-mucked.

In this situation, you're likely up against big pairs or big over cards. Domination isn't an issue with suited connectors and you're in position. If you hit the flop, play the hand. If you miss, easy fold.

Not worrying as much about being dominated as odds of hitting favorable flop. What do you think V's preflop raising range? What is your SC calling range?

If you called with SC, do you fold if you hit a pair?

How do you play your draws if V continues to fire with his big hand?

Depends on the hand. If it's 7d6d, I'm priced in and I am drawing to a straight with a flush redraw. I might go all in there.

Had I hit a pair on the flop, I'd probably fold to another barrel. We're playing for stacks, not a pair.

Isn't this the same script as how just about every player in LLSNL play?

How do you make it more profitable than someone else employing the same strategy?

Good lord at folding pre. Nits ruining poker. Shoving river is interesting. Depends on villain I reckon.

Call river. I'd consider raising turn vs this sizing. Pre and flop are fine as played.

I put Ad Qs as the hand in Flopzilla & gave V a range of 22+; 65s+; ATs+; AQo+; KJs+; KQo
V's range has 51% equity.
I then ran 30 random flops. Hero has >40% equity in ONLY 10 out of 30 flops.

Of course playing 22 on most any flop OOP is extremely hard to maintain control of the hand post-flop when your V misses, but by using Flopzilla, you can drill down further to determine how hands may unfold post-flop based on what you think V's range is & how he would play specific hands within that range post-flop based upon certain flops.

Let's take Miller's elementary approach of C-betting the best 70% of our starting range OTF & then our best 70% of the Turn & best 70% on the River.

Lets assume that since V is ballsy enough to O/R to $20 pre with 22 that he will also conclude that he has the best hand PF when you don't have a PP & will miss the flop ~33% of the time. So, he c-bets the flop will all his pairs.

That's 72 combos.
He'll also bet his flush draws: 65s - KQs, KJs,
That's another 9 combos
He'll also bet AQs/o [9]; AKo [12]; KQo [12]; QJs [2]
That's another 35 for a total of 116

He'll also bet his AJs [3] & ATs [3] as part of his semi-bluffs with gutshots/overcard

He is also betting T9s [3] & 98s [3] not in diamonds but with OESD & gutshot.

So, the only thing he isn't C-betting with OTF: no diamond 87s - 65s 9 combos.

Villain has 28% equity & you failed to raise OTF with TPTK, therefore, you are clueless as to where you stand. I'm not saying calling is wrong, so long as we have formulated a plan for future streets.

Turn is 5s & Villain continued with all 13 PPs. You hold an ace & Q & 3 other blockers on the board, so that's a total combo count of 78 - 17 = 61 combos

AK, AJ & AT is 12 each for 36 combos & AQ is another 6 for a total of 42
KQs/o [8] QJs [6] JTs [6] T9s [4] 98s{4] = 28 combos

He continued with 131 combos & will bet the best 70% of them OTT = 92 combos

Hands that beat you:

AA [6] KK[6] QQ [1] JJ [3] 44[3] 55[3] QcJc [1] 23 combos or 25% of his total range that he bet on the Flop. My combo count must be off somewhere, as Flopzilla shows you with 72% equity. Maybe it's due to the tie count.

Either way, you're a 3-1 favorite vs. V's range & again you didn't raise.

We still have to come up with another 69 combos he bets on the Turn:

AKs/o [12] AQs/o [4] AJs [2] ATs [3] 12 combos
KQs/o [8] T9s [4] 98s [4] 16 combos
All pairs that didn't set up & doesn't beat your Qs: 7*6 = 42 combos.

That's still only 54 combos of the 69 we need to have V betting 70% of his range OTT.

My math is way off, because that's his whole range.
So we'll drop 22-33, 66-TT as C-betting hands & V now has 42% equity, which is more than what he'd have if you added any one [or more] of those PPs.

River: 6d

Since he wouldn't bet his 66 OTT, he still only has 41.5% equity.
If he bet 66-TT & only dropped 22-33 in his c-betting range OTT, he has 32% equity.

Still, we are wondering if we should call now. However, would V continue c-betting the range I described? Hero should have decided that OTF.

I know the combo count wasn't accurate but you get the idea. You need Flopzilla. Who knows the author of the quote: "If you get to the River & don't know what to do, you failed to play your hand properly on earlier streets, much less formulate a plan for future streets."?

This I do know: Using 2+2 to ask your question in this scenario, before doing your homework, is an exercise in futility. Otherwise, you will get nothing but the opinions of others, often without their reasoning behind their opinion.

I was 1/2 asleep when I made the above post & totally forgot that the total combo count for V's range is on Flopzilla.

It makes it extremely easy to work thru the streets with Flopzilla when you can narrow down his range a specific % & choose what hands/draws he will continue with. You were never behind his range, until the River, if he is willing to semi-bluff the Flop & Turn.

OTR he bet $110 into a $140 pot. He only has to get you to fold the best hand 44% of the time. Then there's the times he also has AQ & the times he could think he's golden with KQ since you never raised.

I've got him with 65% equity on the River & your $110 call would be 31% of the pot, which is less than your 34.88% equity.

However, this is all V dependent & you know him better than we do. Much better, as your description is lacking. Even if it wasn't, we would often still be reading things into what you wrote about V, that you didn't mean.

I don't think so. This is correct poker. I'm getting all the money in with 15 outs. What's more profitable than stacking two opponents?

Turn sizing is a little fishy. I'm on board with a turn raise/fold ~$150-175.

It's hard to fold river for the price we are given with top top and lol live poker, but I think we are losing to KJ and KK more often than not.

Without having done the requisite maths, I think folding on any street of this hand would be at least borderline absurd in game, most likely on paper as well. Whether to put in a raise on any of the streets is somewhat open to contestation; folding isn't.

Of course I am not talking about folding 15 outs while IP against 2 opponents.

I am talking about the whole idea of calling with suited connectors preflop against strong range, and playing fit-or-fold post flop.

Not bad. Spot on. He had KdJd. Thinking back I like raising the turn more than just calling. In the moment the sizing did seem weird but I Didn't put enough emphasis on the weird sizing.

FWIW, playing a coin flop situation while in position is not a bad thing.

Huh? I don't think you understand what Miller was saying in his pyramid approach, and on top of that, you are projecting V employing such approach.

Miller's approach isn't that he's ONLY betting hands that hit the flop, because there aren't enough hands to make up for 70%. The approach is aimed to create a balance range that cannot be exploited, meaning there is sufficient number of bluffs in that range.

More importantly, it is very incorrect to project Miller's approach onto your opponent, because simply put, you are adjusting to an incorrectly constructed range. If V is heavily unbalanced toward top of his range, projecting him holding many bluffs would make your calling range very exploitable.

Why would you want to raise V holding just 28% equity while H is in position?

Would you rather V have 72% equity by narrowing his range with a raise?

I would suggest more concise way of writing these out so you can easily follow them when you deviate from current thought process.

I highly suggest you to re-read the book, because I don't think you fully grasp why Miller is suggesting such approach.

After you understand his approach, I would then suggest you to never practice it in LLSNL.

Why would your math be off unless your calculation or usage of variables are incorrect?

I think this exercise has created more confusion to you as the author, let alone anyone who attempts to follow it.

My opinions are often questions that lead to these exercises, but you gotta be able to recognize them to have value.

That's the difference between great and bad live poker players. Great players can range very well, calculate EV, and execute best response.

Bad players can get closer to great players by doing many of these exercises on and off the table until it's second nature.

If you are projecting V to be employing Miller's pyramid approach, bold sentence is very incorrect. V would be about the same every time and is betting 70% of his remaining range on river.

Less filler, more meat!

Look at this way. You have a stack to bet of 30 which means you have the means to enter the pot. You are also entering the pot in position with two cards that not only play well multiway, they can't be dominated.

If the flop doesn't connect, sure you could try to bluff your way through but I love this hand.

It's like playing blackjack. You double the bets when the cards says the shoe is TEN heavy. With an EP raiser and a call, your opponents are big card heavy. So, call the pre, see the flop and you might just stack 'em. If not, fold and you're out.

There's almost no risk to this play. If you have the stack, I would do this all day long.