Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
That's pretty much exactly what my friend told me too. Keep in mind I don't play much live NLHE, but I feel like the problem there is so many flops are going to hit the villains' range harder than mine and they're not going to fold.
For example 3 limps and I raise to $20 on the button with QQ, they all call (which happens a LOT at 1/2) and the flop comes Axx or Kxx. Surely I'm not shipping that flop? And 25% of my buyin is already gone.
Or for another example 5 limpers, I raise to $25 from the SB with AK, 4 callers and I whiff the flop. Surely I'm not shipping that flop? No 1/2 player is going to fold even third pair for the measly little bit I have left in my stack with the pot that big. And now I've kissed about 30% of my buyin goodbye.
Of course, the flip side is that if I flop an overpair and shove, nobody's going to fold 3rd pair so I'm basically guaranteed at least a doubleup as long as nobody flopped a rare monster. And if I have AK and pair either my A or my K, worse As and Ks aren't folding.
Are those just possibilities a shortstacker has to accept?
Are these real things that happened, or just how you imagine it going?
$20 raises should be 3 handed or less a huge percentage. If youre at a place where people are calling 5 ways to a $25 raise, presumably youd just bet even more preflop, or you could just ship it pre.
As far as what you do if you raise it to $25 with AK and it goes 5 ways, yeah you should be pretty much shipping any flop there. $125 pot, and you bet $75 into it, worst case scenario youre facing 1 caller, and you need 27% equity.
Lets say they have 96 on a 982r bord, you have 22.1% equity, and your EV- for the flop ship is about $13. that will be counteracted by times when it folds around, or gets called by draws, or gets called multiple ways by one pair type hands that you have 6 outs against. Every once in a while they will flop 2 pair+ but thats rare.
So at minimum your AK is near net neutral EV, and shipping will get you more calls when you have AA or whatever.
On top of that, whenever you hit an A or K, of course youre just printing money.
QQ, again, if its actually going 4 ways, you should be betting more, but youre still getting $100 in good a huge percentage.
And yeah, end of the day you just gotta look at shortstacking like a 60/40 coinflip over and over again. Sometimes you lose, thats poker. If you start winning, seperate your winnings and use that so it wont hurt when you lose $1k+ straight, cuz itll happen.