Doesn't answer question...is this a value play or a bluff? If it's a bluff I would think there are better hands to 3b with

Oh... I didn't mean 33 specifically. Probably not actually 3b with 33 that often, though not out of the question.

I meant that with an Old Man tight/competent image, I'm looking to 3b wider to use that image.

Normally this would be as a bluff.

Call turn, pot+ all rivers whether he bet/checks. Can't flat flop, raise turn, so we need to get him on the end.

It's for pot size manipulation.

Imagine that, on average, we win 10x the flop pot size when we hit a set. That's obviously limited if our stack isn't deep enough, but once we have a certain depth, additional stack doesn't help. It's just too unlikely that we can get it all in.

With a very deep stack, we have some "wasted" stack depth with a normal raise (since beyond a certain amount we're not going to be able to get it in the pot). It's very unlikely that we can use all of our depth to get more money. By further increasing the size of the pot on the flop, we can use more of our stack depth.

Of course, it also changes playing dynamics, makes us vulnerable to a 4b, and costs us more when we whiff, so there are other considerations.

Roughly speaking, we're trying to make the blinds bigger for this hand so that when we win that 10x, it's 10x a larger size.

Flat flop hope v catches more ott would be my default with flopped quads vs a somewhat Agro pfr.

Given there is a FD otf though we should consider a flop raise this deep understanding we are letting him off the hook with his airballs but building a pot vs the stronger part of his range. Given the middling rank of the high card, he's still got 4 overpairs he won't fold and some FDs and perhaps some Tx he gets sticky with. If he folds his Tx or underpairs we might lose a bet but barring the 4% chance of him hitting the 2 outer those hands aren't giving us a ton of action later anyway.

AP When he leads pot on this turn I think we have to begin to treat his bet as meaningful. I doubt he's tripple barreling rivers with air after we call this turn so we aren't giving up much by not keeping his bluffs in now.

Raise now and make it healthy ~225 ish. He's not folding flushes or AA/KK with a heart most likely. Obv TT or 66 play themselves mostly.


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Consensus is that here is where I definitely screwed up the hand because most are encouraging a raise.

I chose to flat to keep him in the hand and not blow him off his air. After thinking more about it, I'm not sure he has a lot of air in that range when he bets so big on the turn. I'm hoping he has a big pair with a diamond or, better yet, turned the flush.

As played, I called the $60.

The river was the 5d bringing the fourth diamond.

He checks. Ugh.

You bet how much?

Pot

Everyone saying we need to try and play for stacks, he's just never calling off 700 here unless he has 10s or 6s. I would have made a small turn raise to 150-175 and then probably ~200-250 on the river. The allin in shove from an old guy will send alarms off in most somewhat competent v's that we have the nuts.

Board is Td 3d 3x 4d 5d
Pot is 180
610 behind

Villains check is a give up, sdv or a trap.

Value hands that can x/r:
TT - 2
Less likely 44 -2

Worse Hands that call a solid bet frequently:
Nut flushes and K hi flushes maybe 8 combos.

We have all boats, nut flushes, straight flushes and quads and few or no bluffs in our range.

So if villain is checking river to induce he's only likely raising TT and very occasionally 44.

Target the strong flushes with a bet you think he will call. Since we should have few bluffs it needs to rep an overvalued hand by us which is mostly weaker flushes.

Bet 150ish hoping to get looked up by nut flushes and which sets him up for about a pot size shove with TT, A2dd, 68dd which we call obv.


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Let's say our boy has one of three types of hands

Zip: he'll fold if we look at the pot.

Bluff catcher: everything from A-hi up to the 2nd nut flush. (there's room for disagreement on the exact boundaries here.)

Diamond A: He's going to call a bet up to some amount, though at some point he'll probably give us credit for the boat and reluctantly lay it down.

Boat: He's going to stack off. He's very likely to raise and let us get it all in.

Unfortunately, the action doesn't help us much. If we assume he'll open EP fairly wide, something like
99+
AJo+, A9s+, KQ
54s+,

He could lead any of these HU as a cbet and then double barrel when the flush comes in.

He checks the river, either because he's given up or because he's planning to call a reasonable bet or because he's planning to x/r.

We're flying pretty blind here.

Given the range above,

14% of the time he has nothing and will fold if we look at the pot.

72% of the time he has some form of bluff catcher -- something from A-hi to the 2nd nut flush. I realize that's a huge range, but everything in that range is pretty much losing to a value bet and winning against a bluff. Obviously he's more likely to snap us off at the top of that range than at the bottom. But I very much doubt he's going to call a big bet or overbet with any of it.

12% of the time he has the nut flush. He'll call at least a pot-sized bet with this.

2% of the time he has a FH. He'll felt with this.

There's 180 in the pot with 560 behind.
If we jam, he'll call 2% for an EV of 11.

If we pot, let's say he'll call with his NFD and raise his boats. We win 12% * 180 + 2% * 560 = 33

If we bet half-pot, let's say he snaps us off about 35% of the time with his bluff catchers, always with his nut flushes and raises with his boats.
We win (35% + 12%) * 90 + 2% * 560 = 22

So we're better off betting the pot. We can probably cheat a bit higher and slightly overbet it -- 200 isn't much different from 180 and would get us up to $35.

4 to flush and paired board, every draw got there by the river and you think villain has a bluff catching range vs an old guy who flatted pre and x/c flop and turn then bet river?

Forget the bluff catchers imo.

Also a lag open even ep can have 67dd and A2dd in his range so the straight flush should figure into your EV Calc. Even if discounted.


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As a lag,

Thank all of you who are trapping the whole way!!!!

Thank you for not raising flop, thank you for not raising turn.

Mostly thank you for making your raising range super small. And slow playing until the board bails me out.

Thank you all!!!!

As for river bet, it really doesn't matter. Smaller is probably better, but we already lost most of our value!!!!

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For crying out loud. Those that afraid to raise flop, because you want the lag to barrel. Need to bluff more!!!!

So that fear goes away, and you can make some money

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I think the board is Td 6d 5d 3d 3h. Only SF is the 4d7d which I think is an unlikely open EP. If I'm missing something, my apologies.

We're OTB vs EP. V opened pre, bet flop, bet turn. You're probably right he's not calling to snap off a bluff. But that doesn't change my suggestion to bet around the pot or a bit higher (which assumed he'd fold all his bluff catchers).

Ah yes you are correct. Not sure where I got the 4d. I'll blame OPs crappy PAHWM formatting that doesn't restate the board and action for us


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Lol...

You're welcome.

B/f flop... Fail.

B/f turn... Fail.

X/noideawhereyouareotr... Success.

Bet flop with whole range, because am never gonna be blown off my equity. And even with poor image have plenty of fold equity.

Bet turn for value. Vs villain who is turning is entire range into bluff catcher.

River check, and never getting stacked and rarely into tough spot.

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whats a lag

They're the ones who haven't yet switched their strategy to a winning one.

Lol,

HU for Rolzzz

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The guys you fold too, because you will find a better spot!!!

Lag=loose aggressive

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And yeah, pot the river AP. You aren't looking to induce, you just want a big fat ck-c which is going to happen a lot when you get to the river this way.

I also wouldn't get all wrapped up in thinking you made a mistake on that turn card (or flop) by not raising. Max value and stacking off are rarely one in the same.

Congrats Amana

You just won complete min, from majority of my range.

Decent lag knows older white guy, isn't bluffing at high enough frequency in this spot. Can easily fold majority of our range.

May have got us to put extra $60 in. But likely at that point, we are ahead of most V range. So it realley, not gaining much.

You put Lag in zero tough spots.

While lag has put pressure on %80 of your flop call range. On turn your flush draws are getting bad odds, your pocket pairs below a 10 in very bad spot, your over cards are done.

15% of time you have a 10. It is fairly easy call.

Where as, if you actually have value raising range. In future, lag may check more often not wanting to be blown off his equity.

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So in reality, you admit that your range (and therefore by implication Villain ITT) in this spot is mostly air.

The parts that are not air are at best 1p hands which you're not going to stack off with anyway.

So lets review:

Bet flop with whole range. Which is mostly air. This is going to be a b/f.

Bet turn for value. Wait, nothing OTF changed, so if your flop range was mostly air, then your turn range is also mostly air. So what part of your turn bet is actually value? Ummm the < 5% of the time where you picked up a flush? I guess you telling me that you're b/f here for value then...

River check... never stacking off. You don't say.

So what we learn here is that LAGs will b/f at least two streets if we let them, and then x/f the river.



People call me a calling station. Yup. I'm terrible at this game. I cawl...