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Rivered Two Pair Facing Aggression Rivered Two Pair Facing Aggression

04-26-2017 , 08:45 PM
1/2 NLHE 5 handed

Hero ($300): Early 20s WG. Looks 16. Table just opened up 5 minutes ago and was active in a couple hands.

V ($200): 60s WG. Mentioned being retired so probably pretty rec.

OTTH:

Two players limp to hero on btn who raises to $12 with AJo. V in SB calls and limpers fold.

Flop ($30): A 8 4 r w/
V checks. Hero bets $17 (small but I miscounted the pot). V calls

Turn ($64): Q
V checks. Hero bets $42. V calls.

River: ($176): J
V bets $100. Hero???

A bluff like this on a relatively safe card for me is pretty spewy so I feel like I have to give him credit for a hand. It feels gross to fold this, but I'm not sure what I'm expecting to beat when I call besides worse two pairs that c/c the river anyway. If he has QJs here he can also have KTs.
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04-26-2017 , 10:51 PM
A8, A4, weird AK, Q8, maybe J8

I dunno I just click call
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04-26-2017 , 11:15 PM
Snapcall, with an expectation of losing a fair bit of the time. If you win 30% of the time, it's +EV, though, right?
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04-27-2017 , 02:58 AM
call and expect to see A4 or something a lot.

this is a definite call man and takes a very special read to fold. he cant have a straight cause why is he calling with KT on the flop? He can have a set or 2 pair here and both might take this line. I also dont think he has QJ.

I wouldnt raise though cause thats turning our hand into a bluff.

rest seems fine.
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04-27-2017 , 05:12 AM
I would expect he may call flop k10ss as it was cheap and he has a lot of bd equity
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04-27-2017 , 05:12 AM
Regardless its a call
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04-27-2017 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinTheWorkman
Is A on the board? He probably backed into a flush but you have to pay him off (unless you know his game really well) pot is laying you enough.
I think it was A on the board but there was no flush possibility.

I basically snap called as we all would do, but my chips fell over before they hit the line and I ended up thinking about it more and folding. I've been in this same spot multiple times where an OMC takes this exact line with the nuts and I have to call b/c his straight gave me a two pair. I mostly agree that I still should've called.
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04-27-2017 , 11:57 AM
He's going to show you a winning hand (sets, AQ, even KT) a lot, but you need to win only 37% of the time to break even. As previously mentioned, A8, A4, and QJ are also definitely possible.

With only 300 seconds or so of observation on the guy, all you have are stereotypes, which are useful as far as they go, but it's taking them too far to fold. I would fold TP, and maybe even A4, but AJ beats too many strong hands with which he'd lead the river.
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