1/3 live.

V1 super nit.
V2. Tight player. Haven't seen him in a ton of hands. Seems to be value heavy and playing decent abc exploitative poker against stations.

Hero has been on a heater. I've shown down a few winners and none of my bluffs. I've taken the majority of my pots without a showdown. I also have folded to a few 3 bets preflop including once where a guy showed he had AA and I showed AK.

I don't remember stack sizes by V1 and I are really deep and v2 has like 400 or something.

Hero opens to 12 with 99 from MP
V2 calls on the button
V1 calls in the Sb. Bb folds.

Flop: Q92r.

Hero bets 20. V2 calls. V1 raises to 50. Hero calls v2 calls.

Turn:K Offsuit.

Checks around. Typically a bet but I was getting a weird feelin from V2.
River: 2.

After V2 checks the turn I feel pretty silly and decide to go for value v1 checks and hero bets 100. V2 jams for about 350. Hero tanks for a long time. V2 is never bluffing here and doesn't have K2 or Q2 in his range. That leaves us with 4 combos of TJs and 7 total combos of KK, QQ and 22. Since I had been folding to 3 bets and had showed AK, it makes sense that villain would play his big pairs as a flat.

I'm not sure if this makes for a great internet post because part of why I folded is just feel. It just didn't feel like he would jam with a straight here once the board pairs. Maybe if he was shorter stacked but 350 is a big bet in terms of raw dollars. I feel like a lot of villains would call and be happy to get to showdown on maybe put in a small raise.

I also don't know to what degree villain knows this, but I'm never paying him off here with KQ, I would actually just snap muck KQ to the flop raise by V1.

I guess part of my question is how much do you just go with your gut in a situation like this? I've been trying to switch to playing more mathematically sound, but should I really just call here based on principle if I feel fairly confident he just never has a straight here?

I opted to fold face up hoping he would show me and he did.

Good fold set for full house is never good here

What does V1 do on the river? I assume he folded?

Assuming V1 folds, it feels like he had a big Q on the flop (AQ makes sense). So V2 can be shoving 1 combo of QQ, 3 combo KK. And sure, sometimes he has quads, but I tend to discount that.

I think a big question would be if V2 ever plays his sets this passively. On the flop, he calls twice - does a set really never raise, especially the second time around? That seems super MUBSY, but maybe this guy is afraid of exactly 6 possible combos of higher sets with 22 or something. I think QQ has to raise there. Then again on the turn, he checks closing the action. Super passive. And on the river, he just shoves over your bet?

With 7 total combos that beat you (and I discount that), you have to call this off. Good for you if you hero folded and he showed you KK or whatever, but it can't be good practice to regularly fold sets that are lucky enough to turn into boats.

PS - what the hell did V1 have that raises flop, checks turn, and then folds river...?

Folding is ridiculous. Open folding is just beyond ridiculous.

To even consider folding, I would have to play with someone for hundreds of hours. And even then I probably wouldn't fold.

If you are going to fold nutted hands, then never show/tell anyone. You are literally begging people to bluff raise you.

I'm actually not going to critique the fold itself, because there are 1 or 2 nits with whom I've played many hours with whom I should probably fold in this spot. I don't think in game I actually could make the fold, but good for you if you really had a soul read on this guy.

I do, however, strongly agree that you are just begging people to start bluffing you once you open fold this. Maybe this isn't a bad thing? I don't know.

I was table changing soon and it's a casino I don't usually play at. I also don't think it's too terrible that people will try to bluff me more if I adjust by calling more. In general I think people are imbalanced toward having too much value which is easy to play against so id rather not encourage bluffs but it's not the end of he world.

Oh and yea v1 folded.

I don't know is this real or what. It looks to me like a level. Well,... anyway .., so be it ...,

This is beyond belief. It's the second miracle player that folds a monster. Last week we had another beauty that folded a bigger monster like Quads-Aces.

Sorry, but I can't abstain myself. I cannot ..., wtf? I really have to blow the air out of my system. Sorry, nothing personal against you pardner, but I have to say it:

Someday you will make again such a fold, it will be a good one and you will be happy. You will be able to afford a shrimp cocktail at GoldenGate downtown Vegas on Fremont Street with the saved bet and maybe even treat a friend. Feeling like a champ, you will do it again someday and even modify your entire strategy. But, this time a monkey with King high hand will drag your pot, he’ll buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat and f**k her blue for a week. Now which guy do you want to be? The smart one with the shrimp cocktail or the stupid one with the sore dick?

I'm calling right now Izmet Fekali and tell him about this

Wut

Why can't V2 have KQ or AA?

Folding seems rather, ummm, bad.




Assuming this is about outdonked's novel....

+1

Stop for the love of god all you idiots showing these tight hero folds at the table. I know you guys think you are cool and are showing off but it's horrible for the overall dynamic of the game.

Result: hero folds, villain shows KK.

What you want? A high five?

Not trying to be an ***hole here, but just because he has kings this one time doesn't' makes it the right fold.

Obviously, that's why I posted the hand. I felt it was the right play at the time and I still think it was the right play but I like to keep an open mind and listen to the views of others. I play 1/3 and 2/5 if I thought I was great with nothing to learn I'd be playing a lot higher.

Because villain doesn't seem like the type to overvalue a hand. AA is completely out of the question. KQ gets value from absolutely nothing here. I don't show up with AK or AQ here ever. The worst hand I would bet for value on this river would be AK but I would have had to bet flop with it and then floated a flop raise from a tight player after someone else had already called. And even if I bet AK for value it's a snap fold when I get raised huge by a tight player in a 3 way pot on a board where there aren't any reasonable bluffs that bricked.

It makes no sense for him to value raise here with less than a straight.

If he's never bluffing and his value beats me then why should I call? The only question is if he ever plays a straight this way. There are 4 combos of straights and 7 combos of hands that beat me that he would always jam on the river.

AQ would be my guess.

v1 did fold river.

For all the ridiculousness that is this hand, do you realize that you need only 39.5% equity to call? If his range is only 4 straights and 7 FHs/quads, you have 36.6% equity.

Now my guess is:
A) there is no way you figured out the equities to that degree at the table, since most people are terrible at math and even more people are terrible at math in their head, not even mentioning math in their head under pressure, so one can safely assume that you did not figure out what 350/883 and 4/7 equal, because this is uber close

B) there is going to be some spazz factor in Vs range, so if V has 1 combo of AA or 1 combo of JTo or 1 combo of literally any other hand, 5/12=41.7% equity, and this is a call.

C) you got so far inside your own head that you actually think this was a good fold


I will reiterate what I said earlier

Folding here is, ummm, bad

But by all means, please keep folding the 4th nuts on runouts/boards that are difficult to to have the 1st-3rd nuts

Out of curiosity, what is the worst hand you are jamming for value in V2's spot against a player that appears to be a thinking reg and is on the tighter side? Pretend we are v2 and I told you hero beats the game for about 10 bb/hour and is on the tighter side. Are you jamming a straight and if so how good do you feel about it?

This was one of the rare times where I actually did do the math and count combos at the table. I probably took 3.5 min to make the decision, probably the longest time I've taken to make a decision. Folding seemed absurd but I had a gut feeling it was correct. I just felt like he would call with a straight, his move in was also pretty quick and I think he would've considered calling more if he had a straight. Again, just cause I was right doesn't make this a good decision, it's just how I felt at the time.

I just did it really fast and I think he needs 28% equity.

Basically, flop was 186 on the river, hero bet 100, got reraised to 350, needs to call 250 in order to win 886.

And yes, villain should probably be doing this with a straight, because hero's full house is underrepresented. Also, while he showed KK here, it's still a mistake for him to flat and either way, you should be discounting KK, QQ in that spot, as they would/should mostly reraise pre.

Btw, it's false to juxtapose gut vs math. Math is a tool which is as useful as the assumptions. If you only think he shoves rivers with full houses, then it's the correct fold.

Your gut is an heuristic shortcut you use based on your experience. By gut I define a conclusion that is reached without explicit weighting of the various data; it's a snap thought.

If you do take the time to weigh the various combos villain holds, it's not gut. It's explicit hand range analysis based on various assumptions and reads you make about the other player.

The larger issue is that there is a certain degree of fallibility on those reads and assumptions. Also, there are assumptions about the general player pool and player types and assumptions you make about specific players after playing with them for some time; I tend to think that assumptions about the general player pool tend to be more reliable because they are based on a larger sample size while the assumptions you make about a particular player might be biased because of a small sample size and the emotional fog one gets from the heat of the battle.

You don't know would be the right play at the table in that situation only after the fact. And since we are clairvoyants with have God's powers we got to play the FH to the river. Always!

Someday you will make again such a fold on The Strip and God forbid to be a good one according to your thinking. Now, your game will be destroyed. You will have nothing left in your hart to play with confidence. You will not have what it takes to beat the game and be going down the slide. What you and other "armchair" champions are doing is exactly what the fish and donkeys are doing. Just because they sometime win with bad play the get courage to return to the game thinking how they cracked someone's AA with his J7s because J7s could make a str8, 2-pair, trips, FH and a str8-flush too. So, they keep coming back and playing and that's why our games are so good and keep growing. As soon as he cracks AA with his J7 now every time he's remembering when he gets one again and from that point on that terrible hand it's part of his repertoire of starting hand. (LOL)

You see what I mean? See how you start thinking already?
I have bad news for you; Your game is gone, you got no game left in your heart and soul. More's the pity, youngster. More the pity

So if you are V2 do you jam a straight for value here against a villain who is a winning player and on the tighter side? Do you also do so knowing that you will be perceived as rarely if ever having a bluff here?

Yes, you are absolutely right and correct. But I have a warning for you, pardner .. I suspect you may be a new player just because I see you are kind of new to the 2+2 forum.

Now, don't you pay attention or take anything out or try to include in your strategy and thinking from those rare strange and full of level posts when the dude folds FH and Quads

I didn't realize hero had bet 100 OTR (as my post says it's 350 to call), thanks for correcting that.

That makes this even worse of a fold