Then how do you know that V is a super nit? You should also be discounting combos of KK/QQ, because most players 3-bet with these hands.

I'm pretty sure that there are 16 combos of JT. I highly doubt that he's folding any combo of JT pre.

Problem #1: V is going to have a bluff every now and then.

OP is so underrepped, if I got to this spot with AA, I'd be jamming. There is also a chance I'd have a 2 here sometimes

But you make it seem like V is jamming like 2x pot. V jammed 250 into a pot of like 400. This is 1/3, not 25/50. Sometimes Vs just go with a hand when they think they have fold equity (and after seeing this hand, you'd be getting jammed on a lot)


How does V2 know you are a winner?!? You said you don't play here normally. You should be an unknown. So right there all this analysis goes right out the window


There are only 2 ways to play this
1) you don't know V and this is a clear call. By folding and making this thread, it's just an ego stroke
2) you have massive (like hundreds) hours playing with V and have a great read on him, in which case this thread is not worth anything because there is no way we know the dynamic and this thread is just an ego stroke

Preflop I'd typically limp at my table, but you managed to get this 3ways and position on one of the opponents with a small raise, so looks like your table plays differently. In some ways, you could also think this as a juicer to make it easier to play for bigger pots if you hit; the problem is that a lotta people flat hands as strong as QQ to preflop raises (my guess it is far more the norm to flat QQ-TT than 3bet them in most 1/3 NL games I play in, and sometimes people even flat AA/KK, especially deep and especially as the first caller) and 99 can end up being on the wrong end of a cooler more often than you'd think.

When the super nit raises the flop bet, he really should only have QQ and 22 (ETA: Although it looks like he ends up folding later, so our read on this guy might not be correct). He's not doing this with AQ cuz AA/KK and a slowplayed set are still obviously in the mix. It's unclear exactly how deep we are with V1, but if we are "really" deep and this guy is a nit, my guess is that he might be able to make a hero fold with 22 by putting us on QQ. So facing this action, at this point I'd be in calldown mode.

Pretty terrible turn card as JT just got there and that kinda looks like what V2 would have. In fact, WTF does V2 have? He's a tight player, saw a super nit check/raise the flop and the preflop raiser call, and yet he overcalled. If it isn't JT, we then have to be worried that he has QQ or possibly KK. I really can't possibly see how he can have any hand other than these or 22. Am I wrong? Or is this "tight" guy bad enough to continue with AQ (which is a pretty easy dump on the flop to this action)?

I find that sometimes I overestimate Villains. Happen last session out when a super nit, with just a $90 stack, raised AJ in EP (which I didn't think was within his range), and then called my preflop 3bet to 1/3rd of his stack (I wouldn't in a million years put AJ in his range here, it really surprised me). So due to this, I also go for value on the river, even though the only real hand we beat is a poorly played KQ/JT. I'd probably go just 1/2 PSB, cuz these guys are nits / tight after all. My plan would be to fold to a raise cuz these guys ain't shoving in these stacks on a paired board against a preflop raiser who easily has KK/QQ in his range. So nice fold, imo.

I don't like that we're folding hands face up. I find the easiest way to get someone to show you their hand is folding, tapping the table, and saying "nice bluff". For "honest" players, sometimes this comment semi-offends them, and they show the hand to show they weren't bluffing. For bluffers, sometimes they show the hand to show "yeah, you're right". Other times it just opens the door for them to show the hand. I did this last session, and the guy said "put $5 in the pot and I'll show", and I said, "nah, not even worth $3", and he says "I'll show anyways, but this is the last time" and flipped over his set. Give people an opportunity to show their hand and they often will, but don't do it at the expense of showing what we have.

ETA: Like always, everyone's experience here differs, and we perhaps play in different games. Was super nit V1's check/raise on the flop only to fold a later street weird? Yup, sure was, but that was for a mere $50. Was V2's flat preflop and flats on the flop a little weird? Yup, but again, that was for amounts of $12, $20 and $30 more. But here's the overall bottom line: on the biggest street, he decided to put THREE HUNDRED AND ****ING FIFTY DOLLARS into the pot in a 1/3 NL game (which I'll assume is a $300 maximum BI game), against a preflop raiser who called a super nit's flop check/raise and then value bet the river. Lol, we think this is how AA plays it? We think this is how KQ plays it when the most obvious of obvious straights got there on the turn? A straight here calls 100% of the time here in my game, following that up with a "I can't raise, the board is paired". I actually think the river is a fairly trivial bet/fold against any "reggish" type opponent (i.e. non-maniac, or player incapable of making huge moves for huge $$$). But that's the game I play in with the folks I play with. Maybe your game differs.

GcluelessNLnoobG

How is Hero's fullhouse underrepped? I'm guessing 99% of regs would play a fullhouse this way to the river in OP's shoes (raise our big pair preflop, bet the flop, a little bit of slowplay on the flop not to lose anyone and get the overcall, shut it down on the turn when the most obvious of obvious OESDs get there, and then go for value on the river). OP's hand is almost face up on the table, imo.

And V2 should be 3betting KK/QQ preflop? On the Button vs just a single raiser with no one else involved in the hand with these stacks, I'd flat 100% of the time here with QQ+ (we don't have to blow anyone else out of the pot, we don't hate life if one of the blinds comes along, we underrep our hand in position postflop, stacks are huge so it's unlikely a 3bet will setup a stack committing SPR while perhaps turning it face up on the table, etc.). But admittedly, that's my style, and not many agree with that. But, for better or worse, people flat QQ+ here a hella lot in my game; it absolutely cannot be discounted.

The % of how much we have to be good to call the shove are *easily* overridden by another percentage: the % of time a tight reggish player is able to get in $350 (THREE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS!!!!) with a hand that doesn't beat a straight. Your games will dictate how big that % is, and it's far more important than the % odds we're getting, imo.

GOPisgettingfartoomuchflackforthishand,imoG

you have only 153 post I suspects you new to the poker too no?

Similarly, it's just hard to put him on a narrow range in the time you have at the table, especially if you aren't going to be the guy taking 3 minutes to make a decision at 1/3, but even if you are.

Before OP said it was KK but after he foreshadowed with the "weird feeling" I spent maybe a half hour reading and re-reading the OP and thought yeah, this really looks like exactly KK and nothing else makes much sense. I don't think anyone mentioned it yet, but it's really hard for V2 to check behind on the turn with the straight there because there's ~180 in pot and 350 behind.

Anyway, if you can make that level of hand read at the table in real time, I actually can see the fold being good. (And kudos for posting the hand because this would make an awesome example for hand reading.) But IRL I can't narrow down the hand range that well nor do the math quickly enough and I call it everytime because I have a fair degree of fallibility in this situation, as put very well in this prior post.

When the combos get to be this few in number the math is pretty easy. That it is pretty close is obvious too. This is exactly when to go with your gut. It isn't a huge mistake either way. I am inclines to discount the possibility of a super tight player or nit /jamming a straight on a paired board too. Screams KK or QQ.

Although, I have a problem with the river fold, this has been discussed.

Another problem I have is with the flop. If I bet my set, and get chk raised - with another player behind me, dont I want to isolate the chk raiser on this fairly dry board? I hate the chk raise call. Are we trying to let 10 J (the only real draw there) correctly draw??? Even if you think he may have an overpair, letting him call 30 more into a 180ish pot is leting him play close to correct with implied odds

Instead repop it on flop ?! 200ish?! Essentially let them make blatently bad flop calls... thoughts?

If the board was more drawy then I'd be cooler with putting in a reraise on the flop. But I'm still not so sure we should be comfortable reraising someone described as a super nit (which to me means he might only continue to a reraise when he's beating us, although it certainly looks like our read might be off since this check/raising super nit folds later).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Lots of people are discounting the straight because of the river action (which makes sense), but V2 also checked behind on the turn with ~180 in pot and 350 behind. That seems really unlikely for the nuts there. After the flop action he has to expect he'd get called/raised and if called he can just bet the river again. If he checks behind he needs someone else to bet the river if he's going to GII (or he has to bet 2x pot).

Admittedly it's also possible he wants to wait for a safe river card, but betting the turn has to be more likely than checking behind if he has the nuts on the turn.

Anyways... take both of those streets together, and I think we expect a straight pretty rarely. So if I have infinite time to think about this hand I probably end up at:

70% KK
15% WTF
10% QQ
5% JT

The WTF percentage is the hardest one. Against a guy who seems pretty ABC, I guess this could be less, but probably not against an unknown who has only been straightforward in a small sample.

In the heat of the moment I probably would have been 33% KK/QQ, 33% JT, 33% WTF which would have been a snap call for me.

To everyone saying it's a call, if you were in villain's shoes, are you moving in here with a straight against a winning reg who has shown he is willing to make tough folds? What is a move in targeting? He's never moving in with a one pair hand so why would I ever call with KQ? I never show up with trip deuces here. I also never show up with KQ after the nit raises the flop I'm dumping that hand.

He had a pretty tight range pre and flatting a MP open by a competent player with JTo is awful.

+1.

Do you guys really not have the MUBSy type players who when they raise big on a paired and straight possible board always have a boat or better? I know exactly the type of player OP is referring to, and know I should be folding bottom boat to them, but must admit don't think I could have found the fold that OP found.

I'd say this is pretty close, but against the uber MUBSY players I know I would lower the WTF to 5% and increase the QQ to 20%, would mean we are only winning 10% of the time.

Huh? By this reasoning he profitably moves in not just with a straight but with any two.

Maybe I'm not understanding your point, but if your opponent has any idea you can fold a boat here, you absolutely have to call here. No need to do any math or narrow his range.

Is hero folding QQ here?


And as for everyone saying this is a fold (after results are posted), with the exception of GG, I'd be willing to bet most of you snap call. Granted, you'd be right to snap call it, but that's beside the point.

I would call with QQ because then we can give him the three combos of 99 as well as take away 3 combos we lose to.

This was the first time someone has called clock on me; the decision was really close in my mind at the time.

This comes down to if he's moving in with a straight and it just doesn't seem likely or even correct to do so. He loses to 10 combos of boats and beats 7 combos of KQ. And again, I don't think I even call flop with KQ vs the raise from a nit over my bet and a call on a dry board. We would be getting a great price but against a range of overpairs, AQ, sets and TJs we have 20 percent equity. I mean if we throw in AK as a random bluff we have 38.5 but that's optimistic t assume he's raising all of his straight draws and random air.

i would have thought he had KQ as played but there are some nits who fold KQ preflop let alone to a raise

Absolutely, and at least a couple of us have already admitted exactly that. It's not so much seeing the results (altho of course we are all subject to results bias) as much as the difference between the heat of the moment vs having more time to think about it carefully.

And even after analyzing it further I would only say folding seems slightly better to me, I don't think it's an easy fold at all. Even if we think we can put him squarely on KK here, we still need some margin of error or bluffing probability or such.

Yeah no need for the Ad Hominem, especially since we've mostly admitted we're not good enough to fold in game...

Last week I played with a guy who rasied pre w/ TT, got the hand HU and was IP, bet the KT6r flop, bet the KT6 2 turn, and checked the KT6 2 3 river (no flush possible) after his opponent checked. He flips over his set and says he was worried about the straight.

Are you saying that if you observed this hand, and then got into the situation OP posted, that it wouldn't be a clear fold for you on the river? I'm just saying that there are a very select few people where I know this is a fold. Against them, we can fold and against the 95%+ others, it's a clear call.

^^^because 45 calls a flop bet on KT6r board??? The guy who checked back the river is a moron.

Never can be too careful! If you don't have the stone cold nuts, you should always fold to river bets, or check back the river!

And since this is the prevailing attitude amongst the vast majority of reg players who play at this level, this is the exact reason why we should be folding in this spot.

GcaptainofthegoodshipMUBSYG

OP, you said you don't usually play here, so V is close to an unknown, maybe 2-3 hours of data? You don't know for sure he is a nit, it's 50-75 hands you've seen, he could easily have been card dead. And he doesn't have to think that you are a soul-crushing winner who is way better than him. Depending on your age, demeanor, etc, he could just think you're a LAGtard on a heater.

I bring this up cuz you asked how much we're supposed to trust our live reads. Johnny did some great math, and he and someone else mathematically included the spaz factor we should always account for, cuz sometimes V's gotta V. That spaz factor also is a buffer for the times that our reads are wrong (which is prob far more often than we admit).

People who say they had a stone cold read on someone are basically delusional. We can use our reads to adjust the range we put someone on; in your case we can discount badly played JTs or AA. But there is always a certain percentage of the time where our read is wrong, and that has to be accounted for, and that % is probably higher than we normally admit.

To add to ^^^^ there is a very large problem I have with folding in this hand: its predicated on the read that OP gives of V2 being a "tight player". Being that V is a tight player, some have come to the conclusion that the river bet has to be the nuts (or at least better than the 4th nuts)

But OP also gives the description of V1 as a "super nit"

Someone please tell me a super nit who x/r OTF and then checks turn and check/folds river? What is his range? Super nits don't x/r unless they have the nuts. So if we can actually assume that the read of "super nit" is either incorrect or that "super nits" have a spazz range, then wouldn't the same assumptions apply to the tight player?