1/3 live.

Main villain (400 HJ is a 60 year old. He seems to have a moderate case of monsters under the bed syndrome. He plays a tight range pre.

Hero has beem fairly active but it's hard to tell if he's been bluffing or he's had it since nothing has been going to show down.

Loose passive limps UTG, villain opens to 8, hero considers 3 betting but this table is so bad post flop I opt to call with A6cc. I also think villain has a strong range when he doesn't limp and isn't folding pre. UTG calls.

Pot:24.

Flop T63r.

Check, V bets 14, I call. He's not gonna double barrel with his air so I think calling is probably profitable. I think his range is mostly missed AX and 77-JJ. He has some Tx preflop but very little. The vast majority of it he's going to just limp.

Turn: Th brings bd heart draw.

Villain bets 28.

At this point I think his range is really weighted toward JJ and QQ. Calling is definitely not profitable, so do we raise here to try to get a fold and If we do raise, what rivers do we bet? I think A, K, 6, and hearts are all definite bets, but would you just blast off on any brick?

I opted to go for a small raise to 65. I think with an overpair he's not going to be super price sensitive on the turn and if he is, I can always go large on the river.

Dont you think the turn bet skews his range towards Tx? Also, 28 is not a big bet, but to a certain nitty player type, it's a really big bet. Would this mubsy guy really bet 28 with QQ or JJ? Doubt it. I fold turn.

I think he would go 28 with overpair since it's not that big of a bet and he would want to protect his hand. It's 1/3 not 1/2 and it's only half pot. I think he's happy to limp behind with hands like 9Ts and JTs but maybe he opens some of them over a limp. He hasn't opened any hands in the two hours or so I was there, so I'm just strongly discounting most Tx but if he had AT or JTs specifically I wouldn't be super surprised.

I dunno, my default here is definitely to just fold to the turn bet rather than get fancy.

But depending on how much thinking villain is doing, you can credibly rep Tx after calling pre-flop and flop.

I think it just depends on how likely villain is to fold an overpair here. I'm skeptical it is generally profitable to bluff here, but it could be against some opponents. But I'd want to have more of a read on his post-flop play than you are providing.

I think I rep Tx pretty credibly since there weren't any draws on the flop. Tx is the vast majority of my range here. Folding JJ here against me on this turn is actually the most profitable play the vast majority of the time.

This is a very unusual play for me, I definitely don't think bluffing most rec players off overpairs is a +EV strategy.

Truthfully I don't have significant post flop info on him. He would limp fold a decent amount pre and was just playing tight in general not having opened a hand in about 2.5 hours. I was assuming how he would play post flop based on his preflop play which I know is dicey and not a slam dunk

I figured it was cheap, I'm not risking too much. River could have been potentially spewy though.

I don't mind repping the T here, but you have to raise an amount that will actually make him fold. Go 85 on the turn and probably give up on the river if called.

The problem w this hand is, like usual, a lack of reads on this villain. You've been playing w him for 2 hours, you haven't seen him raise yet. He opens to a tiny amount here, who knows what to make of that. Does he seem like he has any clue whatsoever? Has he made any big calls, or anything noteworthy in the 2 hours?

Are you a young guy who looks like a grinder? we are missing a lot of info which is pretty necessary here. This could be a spot where it looks like we have Tx do anyone paying attention, but he's just playing his cards and he's not going to fold JJ+. Given only he's 60 w moderate mubs, we might as well be readless.

you are trying to get the guy to fold overpairs and possible trips?
If you do want to bluffraise turn, choose hands with no sdv like gutshots and not your hands with perfect showdownvalue getting decent odds.

call turn, if you really think he´s that nitty to never bet worse here (pretty tough given action and only two hours of play), fold.

The result was villain tanked for a min, asked me if I had a ten, took another 30 seconds and folded. I asked him what he had after the hand and he said jacks for whatever it's worth. For all I know he two barreled with AK

I think it was a good play. Actually I like the play very much. By just calling the flop you setup the bluff for the turn if the top card pairs or you hit trip or two pair. So, you actually have 5 legitimate outs on your own hand plus 3 more Tens that can pair the top flop card. A total of 8 outs. Exactly like a OESD. You also can have all the flush cards for bluffs too. Tons of nasty things to make life miserable for monkeys.
Playing like that you are like with an OESFD. 5 legitimate outs + 3 Tens + 11 = 19 outs.

I think it's a good play as long as you follow through on the river (most rivers).

Edit: Just read results. Well played.

Anything to make of an $8 preflop raise? At my game this is almost always a juicer with a speculative hand, although it typically ain't made by nits. What position are we in? If we're in LP I can't hate on the call simply due to the lol price and a decent chance both blinds will come along + limper and we got ourselves into a nice multiway pot for cheap in position. Lol, the only time an $8 raise ends up 3ways at my table is if we're 3 handed.

I think I just fold the flop. Guy is described as a nit with a tight range and he just raised preflop and continued postflop. Our A outs should carry very little IO against KK- and all our outs have RIO if we're actually crushed. I'm guessing bluffing him off his hand is a large part of our plan? With him keeping the pot *so* small thanks to his betsizing, I'm not convinced that's going to happen enough (especially if he can just go into passive check/call mode).

Either our read is way off or our hand reading is way off on the turn. Nits (or hardly anyone for that matter) with JJ+ don't continue betting when the worst card in the deck falls on the turn. There's a very good chance he has the T himself, or better (and he's hoping we have the T).

ETA: Even though the play ended up working, and Villain obviously didn't have the monster that I though he did, I'm not convinced its good. I think we spent too much time in this hand thinking about what we could rep instead of thinking what this Villain could credibly have at this point (although it does turn out I'm wrong with what I think he has).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think not bluffing would be pretty bad. If you don't bluff this card with the reads you have then fold pre-flop. You have a big range advantage when you have a read that V doesn't have much Tx and should be bluffing (and value raising) this card a lot.

Raise and ask him if you look like a man beaten by jacks.

Obvious fold pre is obvious

There was a limp pre and villain made it < 3 BBs. I think calling with position is pretty standard. Clearly we'd fold to a normal sized raise.

Meh. Good point about the raise size but we're so far behind.

We know we're far behind; we're playing for implied odds.

GcluelessNLnoobG

130BBs deep against a mega nit with a dominated hand doesn't sound so great to me

oh ****. someone gets it.

welcome to the world of the lag. now just carefully pick your spots, and triple your hourly.

The deeper the are the better when it comes to speculative hands, and obviously we're not playing for TP so we're not too concerned about being dominated.

Course, I'm also expecting to go 5ways at my table, which didn't happen here, so not as good a result as it could have been. For a bigger price, I'd also fold this spot, but this price is just so lol I think a call is fine (although I might also be biased due to the typical big preflop raise sizes I see in my game).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Flat turn w A6/78/Tx/whatever fds you have and then make life hell otr if it's better than any other option.

That's a pretty good read. Suggests his pfr is around 2%. Which means he never has Tx.

Of course it might not be that accurate. Maybe he was extremely card dead. Maybe he limps AA and raises AT. But I don't know what better read you are hoping to have here.

I think pre and flop are fine. If you are going to bluff turn it should be larger.

Personally I wouldn't bluff even having a pretty firm idea of his range. In my experience people who are that tight tend to be sticky when they finally do get a hand. I don't think a raise to say 80 works the 55% of the time it needs to. We have almost no equity if called. Plus there's always that small chance he does have tx.

I agree that I think pre is pretty marginal. But I think at this kind of table I have some amount of skill edge and will also be able to realize my equity with speculative hands. I think it's +EV to call but I get your point. The fact that I hit a pair on the flop on a fairly safe board and thought I was behind demonstrates your point.