Originally Posted by quesuerte
this is one of the things I disagree with most strongly. The idea that we have massive RIO and our villains suddenly become post flop geniuses when we have AA. As I said earlier it is quite possible that we make lots of mistakes but the guy calling with J6 makes even more. I also think it would account for some of the online data not reflecting the situation I experience live.
You are simply refusing to acknowledge the math, and you are refusing to recognize that reverse implied odds are not primarily a function of post flop skill (though, of course skill can somewhat limit your exposure).
Reverse implied odds deal with a situation where you can often be value towning yourself with a made hand, because the villain either has a weak hand that is easy to fold or a better hand than yours.
You say that the opponent who calls with unpaired trash will make more mistakes than us, but this is basically impossible, because those opponents will fail to flop a pair 73% of the time.
Your opponents don't have to become post flop geniuses to realize that when they called you with J6s, and the flop comes down QT7, that they missed the flop and should fold.
The probability of hitting a hand dictates that most of your opponents will usually have a very easy decision to fold to the first action. There is only a 27% chance that a villain will flop a pair. If he has a trash hand like K6s or J6s, he's only going to hit his high card half the times he hits the flop; the other half the time has J6s he'll flop a pair of 6s and almost never call a bet. Some fraction of the time he hits his high card, he won't flop top pair. Some fraction of the time he flops top pair the action ahead of him will force him to fold.
So what that means, when you understand the math, is that the vast majority of unpaired hands that called preflop have less of a chance of hitting a hand they can continue with than a pocket pair has of hitting a set. Most of the time, they'll have an easy fold.
But you don't have that luxury, because you have a made hand 100% of the time in a situation where at least 40% of the time someone flopped gin.
I have already said that there will be spots such as king high flops that are good for us, because they will put some villains in a position to make mistakes. But that doesn't take away from the fact that most of the villains missed the flop most of the time, and have a trivially easy fold.
Just looking at the basic math above shows that it is basically impossible for the villains to make more mistakes than we will.
You can't wish away the concept of reverse implied odds by claiming greater post flop skill than your opponents.