Hi guys I played an interesting hand at a 1/2 NL table and would like some feedback on the way I approached the hand.

Stating stacks:

Hero: $206
Villain: $700

UTG, UTG +1, MP1, and MP2 all limp. Hero in the CO opens to $20 holding QQ. The SB completes and Villain in the BB 3 bets to $50. It gets folded around to Hero???

Villain is pretty loose. He calls raises with suited gapers and limps quite a ton. He plays fairly aggressive post flop: leading into the pre-flop raiser with draws and other marginal holdings. However, I have yet to see him 3 bet a hand at the table.

Against an assumed tight 3 bet range of AKo, AKs, QQ+ (since I haven't observed him previously 3 bet a hand), I have about 40% equity which means that I would eventually be priced in to commit my stack on most flops.

With that being said, would you just 4 bet shove in this spot or flat and possibly get away from an A or K high flop? Could we possibly ever get away from say a T or J high flop 100 BB deep against such a villain especially given that we are unaware of his 3 bet range?

Thanks for the feedback in advance guys!!!

How did the SB complete after you raised?

Anyway, so far this guy's bluffs have come after the flop, when there is money in the pot, and a realistic chance you'll fold. I'd say you can be pretty sure this is a value raise this time. That doesn't mean he's got you beat though. 99-JJ definitely doesn't want to flat and see 4 guys behind him call

You've already got 10% of your stack in. If you put more, you're committing. So it's shove or fold. He's probably got enough smaller pairs in his range that I'd shove. He WILL convince himself you have AK and call with JJ

There is a bet sizing tell here. He 3-bets to 2.5x hero's raise. That's kinda small / PAHWM. JJ and smaller would try harder to end the hand, being OOP, unless hero's image is very bad or opening very wide in CO.

A fold here is super nitty, but not out of order.

Why would JJ try to end the hand? Everyone else limped, they aren't gonna cold call 3-bets. And if they do, they have a pair smaller than jacks and they're playing it with a no-set-no-bet mentality.

JJ wants a call because it thinks it is the best hand.

Betting to end a hand when you have the best of it is -EV and even the fish know that.

Fold.

Big difference between not seeing him 3-bet in 1 hour vs 6 hours, this is relevant. Based on info given he seems passive pre, which is what I based my response off of.

Raising more than normal with JJ pre-flop is one of the most reliable bet-sizing tells at this level. Saw it again last night, a raise to 8 BB's after a couple of limpers by a guy whose standard raise there with AA or KK would be 5-6BB's.

While you are correct that JJ a 'should' want a call, way too many players at this level would rather take a small win than play JJ post-flop.

99- JJ would just flat before they would 3-bet to $50. If they did 3-bet, it would be $70. Not part of his range.

I read the OP like six times, and I didn't see this mentioned. How can it be relevant if you made it up?

How do you know his 3-bet % isn't so low because he always slow plays AA and KK? That would follow with his tendency to get splashy with marginal holdings.

Even if his range is only AK, AA, and KK, we have like 38% equity against that range. If we shove, and get called every single time, we would be betting 180 to win about $405, so we would need about 44% to break even.

That's a 6% gap that can easily be covered if.....

He folds sometimes
He is bluffing sometimes
He has JJ, TT, 99, AQ, or worse sometimes.

Even if you discount these possibilities significntly, you'll still get more than the 6% you need.

When you tell me that you can put a guy, whom you've never met, on exactly 3 hands based on one pre-flop action, it tells me that your poker experience probably comes from books, and not actual play. Keep reading Super System buddy, you'll be a pro someday.

Late position player makes it $20 after 4 players limp and the small blind calls. BB can be squeezing a wide range here and I don't think I would consider $50 a "small three bet." At a $1/2 game, that's a big bet. But not a huge bet. Hard to know if he's trying to end hand or get action bc $50 can look huge in some games, be standard in others.

I don't think that there's enough info to say the BB has only KK+, exactly KK, or is squeezing with something else.

I with position and some dead money in there, I'd like to see a flop. Flat, keep Vs range wide. If we raise, he can only call with AA, KK and possibly AK. If we flat, we can play poker post flop, with position and QQ.

So I haven't met the guy, but somehow you have? If I can't know that his range is KK+, how can you know that his range is 99+, AQ+?

Also, how can you know that I crap in my pants with JJ?

Respectfully Spex, why the animosity? Can't we just agree to disagree? Isn't the purpose of 2+2 to explore alternative lines and experiences? Most of your posts in live NL threads are excellent -- both thoughtful and analytical. On this thread your comments are highly analytical, and spot on with one exception. The exception is in profiling THIS villain (confession: I have not met him) based on the info given by OP.

IMO a combination of facts points to big pairs here - no prior 3-bets, his position, and his bet size.

Hopefully after some more enlightened discussion, Paul Harvey will tells us 'the rest of the story.' If I am right, then you can also claim to be right, as AA and KK and in your range too.

Have a nice day, sir.

Dude, you're missing the point. YOU are the one making definitive statements about villain's potential holdings. You have a few shreds of evidence that you are using to narrow the guy's range down to like 3% of hands.

Sure you must see how unrealistic that kind of thinking must be.

I'm not trying to start a pissing contest about who knows the villain more intimately. Neither of us have met him, which means there is no force on earth that should convince you to make such a narrow read.

However, because of my thoughtful, and "spot-on", analysis you should already realize that even if we are against just AA, KK, and AK we are already pretty close to having enough equity to shove.

If it's at all possible that he has JJ, then it's a clear shove. If it's even remotely possible he has TT, then it's a clear shove. If there is even an outside long-shot possibility that he has 99, or AQ, or will possibly fold AK leaving dead money, then the odds are on our side if we put the money in now.

I don't see anything in the OP that would rule any of that out, and you're anonymous long-distance soul-read isn't going to convince me.

Agreeing to disagree isn't an option here. Folding is a mistake, and the math supports that conclusion definitively. But you're right, the purpose of 2+2 is to explore different lines of thinking. Consider yourself enlightened.

This is really bad thinking imo. Flatting the raise is bad in and of itself, but if you flat, it should be with the intention of getting the money in on pretty much all flops. It seems a little crazy, but V is absolutely going to bet an A or K hi flop with his whole range (at least he should be) and folding when the flop is J hi or lower is criminal.

This spot is probably negligible as far as getting it in is concerned if you spot him QQ+, AK. You'll have 40% against that range and you'll be able to ascertain some information at showdown. I'd get it in and be satisfied no matter what. Sometimes he'll have AA, but he could very possibly have 99 in a spot like this because he doesn't A) want to play a multiway pot OOP with a mid pair nor B) have to c/f a ton of flops when heads up against you.

So, imo, if you spot him QQ+, AK then getting it in isn't a big mistake plus you can potentially learn something about his range. If you spot him anything wider than that, then high five the dealer as you groove your disks in the middle.

OP: " However, I have yet to see him 3 bet a hand at the table."

Now, if I've been sitting at this table for 3 hours with this guy, and when I'm seeing him raise a lotta' limpers from the blind + I think [for whatever reason] that he thinks that he can push me around & I think, because he's up so much, that he can wants to "press it" - well, I will call.

$50 is not a large bet in my room when there is already ~$48 in the pot. So often, people get KK, see all those limpers & fear 2/3 callers & seeing an A on the flop. When I run across those kinda' players with KK, they'll raise even more to ensure those fish with A9s don't call. JJ would definitely raise more, or just flat & fold if they don't hit the flop.

We must remember that this guy is totally OOP [other than the SB] & has never 3-bet before. The fact that he hasn't 3-bet & is now doing it OOP, is a HUGE sign.

Also: Has the guy made a move to obtain rack[s] prior to the hand, or in any other way made an indication that his session will be short lived? Because often "big winners" will try one last "In Your Face" play & either donk off a chunk, or rub it in your face before exiting. I'm assuming he is your common 1/2 player who buys in for $200 & is up $500.

IMO, this is one of those situations where you had to be there.

This is all-in or fold, and based on description, I fold unless Hero has been raising a lot in position. So, what is Hero's image?

I appreciate KKingDavid's analysis however I must agree with this as well. At the time, there was definitely a possibility (even though a very small one) that villain could have had TT-JJ so therefore given stack sizes a shove appeared to be the best play. Villain showed down AA but in the long run I believe the play is slightly +EV (break even at worst).

GoGrind... How long were you playing with Villain without him making a single 3-bet?

This villain profile -- limping and calling a ton, but VERY narrow 3-bet range (probably excludes AK when OOP) -- is common enough at low stakes that we must learn to recognize what is happening, and not use ranges that do not match the villain to justify making a costly mistake.

The question is not "what would my own range be if I were the villain?" It is "what is this villain's range?" QQ is a monster hand, but this V's range is KK+ and his bet sizing is designed to keep you in or get the stronger part of your range to spazzing out and shove.

Sorry Spex, I no longer want to agree to disagree on this one.

I understand your reasoning as well. I was seated at the table for about 8 hours and not once did Villain 3 bet (other than the hand mentioned above). I can see why Villain would be assigned such a tight range but against such a loose villain it is hard and super nitty to lay down QQ. Would you find a fold in this spot 100BB deep?

One situation where you could be willing to say a villain doesn't 3bet QQ preflop is if you have seen him show down with QQ in a hand where he had an opportunity to 3bet and didn't.

What are the best hands you saw him flat-call a raise with? If you've been playing for several hours with a loose player and can't answer this question, you may not be paying attention to the right things.

If I call pre, it's only for set mining value, which is admittedly -EV, but almost guaranteed to stack him if I hit.

Folding pre seems too nitty, but with this villain as described is the best play. Save your chips.

Now ask yourself: was there really any surprise when you saw his cards?

Grunch- it is 1/2 but shove and you get AK to fold some times...u could also peel it in position and GII on non A it K flops....

Actually I wasn't surprised at all when he showed down AA. I had a feeling I was beat pre-flop but because of his loose image I just couldn't get away despite the fact that he had such a narrow 3 bet range

+1 Agreed. I read OP and thought "Call or fold, hope SB comes along for some extra money". Then I scrolled down and everyone was saying ship it... I 100% don't ship here, I've seen way too many people get stacked for 2-400 at 1/2 by committing with their TT-QQ pre. The 3-bet for 2.5x at 1/2 from BB is super strong in my mind. AA-QQ, and maybe JJ or AK.

Call pre and push any non A or K flop would be my standard line here unless I know I'm up against a total NIT.

Is this considered a bad line to take?

My range for a typical villian would be JJ-AA, AK, AQ.

If your plan is to ship it on any non A or K flop then why not just ship it pre? If you are willing to commit post flop then just commit pre-flop especially 100 BB deep.

call and play poker IP. think shoving just pushes out all worse hands. just let him see a flop and make mistakes by barreling off and catching worst hands post flop

Just a random thought. V thinks he is a tricky player and his 3 bet could be some kind of squeeze play. Just a thought.

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