Hero is always betting in the vicinity of $50. I can't see V2 doing anything but folding, calling or shoving. Of course, the last of these---shoving---is the most problematic. If he does shove, we're getting only 2:1, so it's generally a fold, since his range will be mostly 55, 45, 56, and 75, maybe 44 and 33. Obviously, if he just calls, we need to value bet most rivers, since his continuation range on the turn should include 88-JJ. The fact the flop was a rainbow is significant because it means we can cut combo hands like 89s, A2s, and, perhaps, even A5s.

Slow pony to the race.

Not seeing a lot of poker stove work going on in the analysis (kudos to rusty). A 2.5% range pf is roughly JJ+, AKs. On this flop, we're still behind his range. Weighing positively is that he checked. There's lots of room for worse hands that he beats that will call so he should bet. Weighing negatively is that he's an idiot and could think he's trapping with the nuts.

Now we have to put the other villain on a range. If he's competent, he realizes the same thing that you did that the UTG is super-strong pf. He's not calling with connectors that match up with broadway, but rather with pp (QQ-) and SC from T9 to maybe 65.

Before any betting, we actually have the smallest equity against the ranges, with only 23%. Even V2 has more. If we are confident the UTG has AK, we're still behind V2 in equity. Other than 55, he doesn't have any draws of over 2 outs. Other than catching a seven (and am done listening to mpethy saying he runs bad), I think I'm happy seeing what happens on the turn. It is a check for me on the flop.

On the turn, it is an easy bet. Against his calling range on the flop, we're a 4:1 favorite. Even if he folds TP, we're still a huge favorite if he calls. If he can raise with 2pr+, we're still ahead. Only if he raises with just the straight are we behind and we have outs. I'm raising and getting it in without hesitation.

Results, please.

i agree with venice. if someone is raising that tight we have to check the flop most times, cause we're just burning money to check raises too much especially if he thinks we're aggressive enough to bet if checked to. ott, i might honestly check for pot control because i think alot of times we're getting called by 55 on the flop, so i wanna utilitize some pot control here. i know it sounds nitty, but i don't think we're getting 2 more streets of value from worse, and i'd rather extract that bet on the river if i see fit

Bet the flop to try to push out V2 and value town V1 probable AK. We have so little equity on the flop, folding to a check/raise is not a big loss (we only have a gutty).
On the turn, I would bet/call-off. V2 seems like a guy who would peel turns with weaker hands.
Our preflop range is the same as V2, which means 5x makes a small portion of our range.

I don't see a lot of 1/2 players raising pre then CR this flop. Most of them are terrified about getting setmined. Obviously they fear low cards less than higher cards, but I think they're more likely to bomb the flop with AA than to CR big. They also fear giving a free card that can beat them as well.

I would c/c the turn. When we bet/check, I can see villain betting hands we beat like 2 pair, smaller sets etc some of the time because they might figure we were bluffing, or had an overpair etc. Even if they check those hands back it's still ok, because I'm bombing the river if he checks and probably folding to a raise if he snap shoves and I don't fill up.

If he has a straight and the board pairs he's calling a big bet. If he has a set/2 pair and fills up, he's going broke. So I don't think a free card hurts us too much. Villains also often bet way too small with made hands, so I could see him like 1/3 potting it with a straight.

Even if villain bets the turn, I think we should bet/fold most rivers evne if we don't fill up.

When a situation like this come up. We have to go off of body language you can always tell or at least when someone is being sneaky. You can't go off pokerstove. Most of the time they check I'm betting. But he folded anyway. Ott no obvious draw came in. Bet half pot ott. You can't take control of the betting and check now. That's the worse betting flop and checking turn. I'm not saying bet river we will decide what to do after the turn action.

Wow how did I leave out pocket 3s. How retarded

Board: 6h 4d 3c 7s

Hand 0: 47.348% { 77 }
Hand 1: 52.652% { 6c6s, 6d6s, 55, 4c4h, 4c4s, 3d3s, 3h3s, 65s, 54s }

That's assuming he flats sets 1/3 of the time. Since we can raise/get it in with almost even equity I think betting this turn is the better line to eliminate the possibility of it going check/check when he has an overpair and goes gun shy

Have to bet this turn

Fair enough, reads in OP wasn't that specific about hands he had played previous. Luckbox can mean he raises big when behind but hits his hand!

YOU should "read the read, haha" because we are against TWO V's good sir. Second V often has hands like Ax and Tx when he calls after we call. Also, the original raiser could be stepping out of the box and raise with a less than premium hand UTG for any reason.

I see it all the time, you peg a guy as a nit, then he raises like this and raises the flop with Q high to try and prove he isn't a nit.

Or he is just tired of folding and QTs is the best hand he's seen, and since he isn't really positionally aware anyway, he raises. I could go on and on as to why the V cannot be GUARANTEED to have a premium hand, unless we have a lot more reads/history with V than provided. I asked OP this in my first reply.

THIS, betting like $40-60, depending on how V will interpret sizing.

We want him to call with worse, which is MOST of his range. I also think that we get more information AND more money in the pot by doing the betting ourselves on both streets than checking and seeing what he does. When OOP with a hand like this, checking leaves you in the dark... V checks back overpairs, and sometimes straights trying to be tricky.

If I bet and he has the straight and wants to be tricky by just calling, I get his stack when I shove on a paired river. My main reason for betting is that nearly ALL his hands we crush now will check back since we could have a 5...

P.S. - Rusty you left 88-JJ and AK out of his range.

I would bet for value here. There aren't a lot of 5s in his range, and he probably thinks there aren't a lot of 5s in yours, and few 7s in yours. Your bet reps mostly 77-JJ and he prob flats it with a similar range and most of his 2p hands, raising with his sets and straights. If he raises, we likely have to call, since we beat all of his sets and have outs against his straights.

I go 50-55 here and plan to b/f blank rivers most of the time.

I'm not b/f any river. If the guy has 85s or 3 combos of A5s so be it.

Originally Posted by mpethybridge
Reads:

Villain 1: Idiot luck box, loose passive, wysiwyg player. he folds on the flop; I mainly included the read so I could insult him because he was so bad and so lucky and 3 of his absurd suck outs came against me.

Villain 2: Seems competent. Hasn't been active at the table. I have only noticed 2 hands he has played: AIPF with KK v. AA for 70BB (utterly standard) and a button v. SB hand we played:

Effective stacks in this hand are $300

Idiot luck box is UTG and raises to $12 with a guaranteed top 2.5% hand.

I am CO with 77, folds to me, and I call with the easiest set mine in the world, so we'll just skip preflop. Villain 2 calls on the button.

Flop ($36): 643

UTG checks, I bet $23, V2 calls, UTG folds

Turn $82: 7s

Hero checks, V2 bets $50, hero calls.

River ($182): Jc

Hero...

Check