Re-read what I wrote, please

del

Preflop: I would probably raise a small amount, something like $10. This way, we give ourselves an outside chance at winning the blinds for little risk. If someone calls (which is very likely given our image) then, fine, we build a pot that we can often steal postflop (vs Ax hands for example) in position (never a bad thing). Both these guys seem fairly ABC, I don't think they're going to play back at us preflop or postflop. The small raise also creates a larger SPR, where we will have more room for poker postflop and not get into sticky commitment decisions with TP.

ETA: I've thought about this lots the last year or so, but my standard raise here used to be my more "standard" raise (so in the past I would have often done $15 - $20). Part of my reasoning at the time is that there's simply more money in the pot for us to steal postflop. However, I've been reconsidering this as (a) I think we're risking too much to steal the blinds and (b) we setup smaller SPR spots (which means we approach commitment decisions sooner, which we don't really want with these dominated type hands).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Flop: I like that we've ended up with a big SPR pot where we shouldn't ever be facing a commitment decision. I think the flop is an easy call. It's unlikely a raise is going to fold out better hands (QJ is the minimum better hand, is it really going to fold?), unlike if we flopped bottom pair + flush draw (where a raise has a good chance at folding out better hands since there are so many better but very weak hands). We're in position so we can build the pot as big as we want on later streets when we want (such as if we hit), but I don't think we want to here with just TPmK (especially if it remains UI, where honestly we'll have to consider folding on later streets).

GcluelessNLnoobG

We are ahead of the NFD and we block top set, so all we are worrying about is 77/44. Against a range of QT+, sets, NFD, KJ, KT we are 50/50. Meanwhile he can't have top set or AA/KK so we are at a range advantage.

Raise to $70 and be prepared to empty the clip.

Would love to see how we are doing against this Villains range when he decides he wants to get in 200+bbs on the flop.

G2:1dogatbest?G

+1, this sums up how I would think about the flop.

GimoG

Your theory is that if you have QTs, then there's far less odds of villain 3 betting with a draw. Problem is that the odds aren't really that lower. If you assume that he does it with all the possible draws he's donking with, AA/KK is a favorite, but QTs has great equity, something like 45%.

if villain is only 3betting with A high flush draws + 56s and may be something like 68s (plus sets of 7s and 4s), then QTs has 50% equity. All AA/KK combos are decently favorite against said range except for AA combos containing a spade.

So you holding a QTs doesn't make that much difference in terms of whether villain holding draws or not.

What makes a difference is whether villain is shoving draws to begin with A high flush draws in particular. If he doesn't, then the overpairs are SOL, but QTs still has 35% equity which might be good enough for a call.

I don't have any specific reads on opponents but in my experience it is very rare for a random player to donk into PFR with a set. I think we can almost eliminate sets from his range due to this tendency. Most donk bets imo are medium strength hands - straight draws, flush draws, single pair hands. Maybe two pair just because people get nervous with those. So I think the odds of a flop three bet are very low and I think we are more favored against his range than we might think.

So I decided to raise. I think this works as a value raise against draws and potentially a bluff against better Qx. I don't expect him to fold Qx very often to one bet but he might. He almost certainly will to two bets.

Flop: ($31)
Qh7s4s
V donks $25, hero raises to $65, V calls.

Turn: ($161)
2s

V donks $35, hero?

My point was that if he 3 bets, he most likely has AA/KK/AQ , a set or the nut flush draw.

If I have QTs, I am way behind right now every time. Sure I gave up some equity I had if I had just called the flop bet, but I think that is equaled out by the times he folds a better hand....at least they fold a better hand to me. Not sure what other people see overall.

If I have AA/KK and raise the flop and he 3 bets, Im folding and will be folding the best hand a decent portion of the time when he has the nut flush draw AA/KK/AQ.

Having said that, I dont think hes 3 betting very often with this action.

Raise to $135

You think the villain is jamming $600 when we make it $70? I don't.

When I say "empty the clip", I mean that if the villain calls, we're going to barrel most turns and rivers to maximize fold equity against better queens.

Raise to $140 to get value from A Qx and sets.

I thought that is what you meant by "prepare to empty the clip"?

ETA: "Emptying the clip" with a showdownable TP hand attempting to fold out a very tiny range of better TP hands is a terrible plan, imo; leave barrelling for air / very weak hands that can't win at showdown versus anything, imo.

GcluelessclipemptyingnoobG

Yeah, I realized after the fact I wasn't clear. I'm raising flop to barrel turn & river.

AP to the turn, I don't like where we're at. Hero's hand does not look like a flush, but Qx or an OP that wanted to protect. When V bets small like this on the turn, I think it removes some of his baby flush combos. He doesn't expect us to have a flush, but he would be betting a lot more if he wanted to "protect" against the fourth flush card hitting. The only reason why he wouldn't fear that and bet so small...is if he doesn't fear the 4th spade.

I might be missing out on some value, but I think a value raise is pretty thin here. I think I'm in call down mode at this point. Bet if checked to on the river.

Turn: I'd just call. Preflop set us up perfectly for not facing pot commitment decisions, and yet for some reason we seem hell bent on playing for 200+bb stacks with a mediocre hand. At this point it seems most likely he has a flush, but I'd rather not stack off postflop to find out if it's a bigger one than mine. We're in position, so we can always make sure a bet goes in on the river (and perhaps even raise a bet if we think the sizing is too lol).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Maybe not jamming, but a stack committing raise still puts us in a bad spot. If he makes it $220 for instance we are basically priced out to hit our draw.

I see this sort of line all the time from people that I play against.
They donk/call the flop then donk the turn when the scare card gets there.
I raise almost always (because I've got a spewbox image and assume I'll get paid) and am far too often disappointed when they fold to the large raise on the turn.

While they might not really know why they are doing it, they still often come to the right answer (that they are beat) and they fold when we raise the turn large so I'd make it $80-$90 here.

I mean where we are at is heads up in position with a reasonable sized pot and the third nuts. We really don't like that as a general spot? Seems kinda crazy.

Raise to $110, probably folding to a shove. Really like getting value from the spade K or A. b/f all rivers if checked to.

The defiant and small turn bet indicates a range of TPGK (probably with a J/K/A) or a small flush. Wouldn't a set be likely to reraise the flop? Would a larger flush bet bigger or delay aggression for a c/r or river bet? I guess these are questions the OP can address based on feel for villain's play.

We're probably ahead, but still we have this problem of deep stacks. Villain should recognize it as well; it's a fundamental concept. With position and the river yet to come, I think we can delay further value extraction and see what happens. I guess the painful alternative is to raise/fold.

I like this hand as played.

I think the $15 pre at 1/3 is a little bit high, considering that it was folded to you on the button. If you are not seeing a lot of 3-betting out of the blinds, then it's not too bad.

As played on the flop, OP mentions they rarely see people donking out at them with a set, I disagree, I would definitely not take sets out of the opponents range here. He also bet $25 into 31 ? That is a pretty large bet for a live game.

Some posters were mentioning to raise to $75, I think this is a bit too high because in this spot I would be folding if he comes in for a re-raise over top. The $65 you choose seems perfect. Charges draws and puts his QJ/QK type hands into a difficult spot for later streets.

I think the opponents most likely hand given the action is high spades or a strong queen, AQ,KQ,JQ.

Now to the current street, we hit our flush and the villain is leading into us with a very small sizing.... $35 into a pot of $161, so if we call here we will be looking at a pot of $231 on the river.

I think we might be a bit too deep to raise here, and raising might get him to fold his queens, I guess we have to worry about hands with the As, such as As/Qx or Ks/Qx...

But given we have position, for the river, I would flat his turn bet. Hopefully we do not see the board pair or another spade and we can either flat his river bet or place a nice value bet out there.

If we get to showdown and don't improve we're not winning the hand unless we're only up against the NFD.

Even the most dense players are going to find it difficult to call down with TP while OOP in a 200bb pot.

If we barrel to the river we don't have to be up against just the nut flush draw (keeping in mind there are a bunch of nut flush draw combos), we can be up against other draws; this widens his range enough to easily check back the river UI.

GimoG