On the river I'd make a big bet. Methinks sets just play the turn a lot more straightforward since this board is drawy (a set has to be scared about KQ or hearts or whatever sucking out on them). I'd probably go 3/4 PSB. If raised, life sucks, but I think I'd have to consider a call since he probably thinks we don't have a 9.

I guess the alternative is to check/call and hope villain bluffs with a busted draw, but I'm not sure that works enough.

I'm also pretty much ignoring reads regarding him have a monster; I think his play overrides our gut feelings.

I think everyone agrees this is a bet here OTR.

Hero: (Covers)1/3NL on a Saturday night @ around 1am. Hero is playing well, mixing it up in different spots, almost always raising preflop, taking most pots down after a c-bet or a well-timed double barrel. Was up two BI until got overflushed playing suited connectors by a villain not involved in this hand. Q4cc > 98cc. This was about 20 hands ago. No signs of tilt apparent.

Villain: ($450) ~40 yo white guy. He plays rather straight forward. Only 1 hand notable between hero and villain. Hero raised AQ and villain called in position. Flop was K74cc. I c-bet he called. Turn was a K. I double-barreled, he min-raised, I obviously folded. I haven't seen him bluff or get out of line. A different hand when he flopped 2 pair against a different villain, he raised the flop on a coordinated board.

Limper: ($200) Scared money & terrible. Hadn't seen him raise preflop once. ~21 yo. Did a lot of l/c. Just rebought after l/c, c/c, c/c, c/c 2 pair vs better 2 pair. My target in this hand.

The hand:

Hero is in CO with K9

Pre-flop:

(Villain is on button. SB & BB are LP and have been folding to my button & CO raises a ton.)

Limper limps from MP2, Hero raises to $15 (my standard raise), Villain OTB calls. Blinds fold. Limper calls.

No reads from either. Looked casual. Villain's range is 22+,AT+,sc. Limper could have anything

Flop: ($49) T93

limper checks, hero c-bets $30, villain thinks maybe 5 seconds before calling, limper folds

Turn: ($109) 5

hero leads $60. Villain tanks after I bet. I take a look at him, and I get the distinct feeling he's hollywooding and has a monster. He looks supremely comfortable and confident and looks like he's contemplating a raise. He very smoothly calls. Internal monologue tells me I need to hit my flush here.

River: ($229) 9
Effective stacks: $345

Hero bets $115, villain thinks for maybe 3 seconds, then shoves.

It's $230 more to call a pot of $689.
Hero?

Call and give him your money and take a note in case he is/becomes a regular. The problem is he might have a hand he THINKS is a monster (AA/KK) but is not.

Nah..He's polarized here to a nutty hand (I agree villain played turn like crap f he has 9-10, TT, or 33) or a missed combo draw (something like 78, 8J, or JQ)
I doubt he has an overpair at all or even A-9 for that matter

I agree it's a call cause his turn action makes no sense to me...

I feel like a straight forward player would raise the flop with any larger pocket pair, and maybe even A10 to "see where he is at and get draws to fold because an ace on the turn scares them". Also I do not see a set or two pair not raising the turn.

Seems to me he has A9 since he took a while to call on the turn. I wanna know the results!

Yes, and at least where I play people play back at c-bets (and that's 1/2) by calling and betting the turn.

We pick up so much equity ott it's a great card to barrel and get him to fold all the random Tx and draws he might have.

Honestly I'm c/c river here.
When he calls the turn he either has A) strong hand (2p, set) B) A mediocre hand Tx or and overpair(they consider this a strong hand) B) a missed draw.

I feel like we can discount 2p and sets just a bit as he might be raising them at some point in the hand?

When we c/c here we give him a chance to bet with all his overpairs thinking it's the nuts, bet his missed draws, and even bet his weaker 9x.

This eliminates us betting and him shipping and giving us great odds to call >.< and also lets him value own himself as we're only beat here by a few hands. (TT 33 9T.)

b/f $120

If he raises you, you're beat. If you check, he'll probably bet more than 120.

That was awfully quick to post the river action.

grunched it anyway...

Based on your assessment, I c/c this thing. But, without that "tell" you are confident in, I'm leading again but don't know what I'll do when/if he raises. I just don't see the point in c/c'ing when we have been leading the whole way...without knowledge that he fires at weakness. Without your tell, I am not thinking he's ever raising other than boats, unless he's crazy enough to raise TP that just two paired up.

At this level live, where players routinely over value their hands, I just don't know if I can fold the river. As already mentioned, the turn action as borderline retarded if villain has T9/33/TT - IMO I think it's very feasible for villain to show up with a worse 9 or a poorly played overpair. It's by no means a fist-pump snap call, but I think we have to pay off here and expect to be good a decent amount of the time. If not - take notes and store it in the memory bank.

Can't think of a hand we beat here. He can't have 9X of hearts as we have 9h. I doubt he is calling two barrels with Q9. I don't see straightforward shwoing overa third barrel with busted flushdraws.

Uh oh mby overplayed JJ? But so unlikely ...

Yeah this is kind of a clear bet/fold the river but the absolute strength of our hand is so strong I just have a real hard time folding here since it looks like he just spazzed out due to the fact that a set/two pair really needs to raise the turn.

Why does he? Our line can't make him worrying. If he has TT we are drawing for two outs in his eyes. 5 if he has T9. It is almost impossible for him to put us on a FD ott.

I think I'm leaning this way now too; I forgot he probably also bets his overpairs. My guess is the only hand we might miss value from is Tx (but he might even bet that).

Because we could have a lot of straight draws that are stacking him on the river if we hit (I'm assuming he is shoving the river here 100% of the time if he is smooth calling the turn) but not giving him any action if we miss.