I think there are 2 ways to go here:

1) We read V1's bet as a blocking bet with 2 overs and a heart draw. I still don't know what V2 can have here. If he had a set, I think he would have raised by now. Also, the fact that the T came means that we don't have good implied odds on a 7 anymore (since it puts 4 to a straight on board), but the fact that no one seems too happy to put money in on the turn means we have a chance to raise them out. The T does put a straight and an overcard on board, and if we get called by backdoor hearts, that's fine because we're ahead of that hand right now.

So I think one option here is to raise to the same amount I would raise to if I had 87--probably around 185.

2) I am getting over 4.5:1 on a call in a situation where it is likely that either I am ahead or I am way more likely than 4.5:1 to improve to the best hand. So I can call in position, and if I have the best hand on the river it'll check down, and if I improve I can go for more value on the river.

I don't think either of these options is bad and I would probably decide between them in-game based on reads.

The "interesting card" talk from both V1 and V2 are verbal tells designed to slow others down because they have mediocre holdings - if they held a monster, they would not give you any impediment to betting/raising.

Given that and our equity, I raise this turn big. Make it $175 to go.

I'm not sure what V1 has but it doesn't seem strong. V2 has AQ for sure.

I would try to get it heads up and all-in vs V2 by raising to $150.

I like turn raise here as it gives us control of the pot. If we miss our draw we can check back for SD value and if we bink we can go to value town. Lets raise to 175 and ship all clubs/straights on river and bet thinly with two pair/trips check back all blanks

No reason to bluff here on river if we get called on turn, obviously them folding on turn is not a bad result here

I agree with Koko and would like to see the river heads up with V2's flush draw.

Before calling here, you have to decide whether you're going to stack off OTR if the flush hits.

Because you have to give V1 credit for bluffing at the river. So, IMO, you can't just fold if the flush hits and V1 goes crazy. V2's stack is small enough that we have to double him up, so its really no question.

I think I'm stacking off if the flush hits, so I probably make a move here since I can represent a set or Tc9c (top2p+FD). Love me some FE, so I like the idea of a raise here. But I think you need to scare V1 to make sure he gives up whatever equity he has.

I make it $200 and stack off if raised.

Could make an argument for all three, but 3-betting seems like the least appealing option. Hand has good implied odds pre-flop if it hits, validating a call. Fold is fine too, and is probably the play that has the highest book EV.

This is the beauty of two plus two. I really enjoy the various points given by different posters, so thank you all.

Lets get down to the end of this one.


Game is 1/2$ THNL

Hero. BU[550$] 20-ish white boy. Table is aware that I generally play tight but am capable of bluffing/semi-bluffing.

V1. UTG[covers] Is a MAWG, playing aggressive. He works on his game, likes to discuss hands a lot. He has his leaks but is really capable of wide range of plays.

He is definitely the most dangerous Villian post-flop and he is also very confident in his post-flop skills.

We have a lot of history and over the past few weeks he was getting the better end when we two clashed in hands. He has moved off from better hands and made me pay him off with an overbet ship turn with a mediocre made hand on a wet board that I called down light etc. This particular session we have only played a single meaningful hand where he opened UTG+1, got called by two fishy Vs, I 3-bet/called 100BB ship from him. My AKo > his AJs.

V2. MP[200$] Is a very tight Venerable gentleman, who I haven't seen bluff or get into a big pot without a good hand in months ...

V3,4. SB BB[250$]Are more or less generic players in our room - loose pre, will chase most draws for cheap (money wise, not about good odds), will stack off with TPTK most of the time.

Pre-flop

UTG raises 10$ Sizing is standard minimal raise at the table. You probably won't see anyone but me raise less. Villian was trying to table-captain recently, raising close to 30% of the hands at a full table. Raising almost every hand IP. He doesn't limp at all.

MP calls 10$ He is definitely mucking AJo/A9s, non suited connectors and one-gappers.

Hero-BU looks down at T8 and calls.

V3,4 - blinds fold to the great surprise of all participants. Not completing blinds for a MW - they must have been dealt real garbage.

Three to the flop:963
Pot: 33$

V1. UTG[covers] bets 25$. Which is nothing surprising, given how tight V2 is post flop, we are most likely already heads-up on this board.


V2. MP[175$] however, calls 25$. And this is wort a great deal of notice.

Hero-BU [525$] calls 25$ despite the itch to try to get aggressive in good place to do so.


Three to the turn :963T
Pot: 108$

V1. UTG[covers] he says 'interesting card', thinks for a while and bets 40$. He is aware of pot size and bet sizes. This ridiculously small bet is telling us something. Also I'm pretty sure this card changed something for him in this hand. He is not acting for the public when he talks like this, every I saw something like this it was genuine.

V2. MP[175$] comments something like "truth is, really interesting". And when thinks. And thinks. And when calls 40$.

Hero-BU [525$] Doesn't find guts to raise and just calls 40$ after rattling his chips for a minute.



Three to the river :963T8
Pot: 228$

V1. UTG[covers] Looks at V2s stack and counts out 135$. Exactly the amount to put the old gentleman all-in. He then adds 25$ more and bets 160$. 7/10 PSB.

V2. MP[135$] Enters his hero fold mode. I've played with him fir a while and I know that he is folding the second the action is on him, but because he has a strong hand this will take him awhile to talk himself into the fact that the board is so dangerous he can't put in all of his monies. After someone at the tables threatens to put a clock on him, he says "That won't be necessary" and finally discards.

Hero-BU [485$] is genuinely unsure on how to proceed. Again, three options cross my mind.

Wonder why V1 doesn't seem concerned about you? And what in the world does he put V2 on? Sadly, I think I fold here based on table talk and V1's betting into two people. Raising might be the next best option, but not sure he folds anything that beats us or calls with worse. (I hate two pair!)

That's such a hard fold. But I can put him on 9s or 10s. You have a blocker for that 10 though. It would be a tough call but I would succumb to calling.

Unfortunately, I would probably end up calling, too.

Fold. Looks like he backed into the ace-high heart flush. There's basically no other hand he should be happy leading into 2 people with when the backdoor flush, 87, and 75 have all got there by the river.

What if he had QJ?

What hands do you expect him to fold that are ahead of you? (I can only assume this is a bluff.)
Fwiw: I think that raising here is pretty much the nut worst option and if likely akin to burning money.

What is the range of hands that you expect him to show up with on the river given the action so far?
How many of those hands do we beat?

I think he also leads the river with that hand too.

But I think cmv is pretty spot on the this is a nutted type hand with QJhh, QJcc, AXhh, and KXhh all taking about the same line.

I agree it looks like a strong range that we should fold to, I just like being accurate with my ranges.

How do you think he plays 7x hands like 77 or A7?

This is a spot where, unless I can find anything in his range that I can beat, I don't feel a need to be totally accurate.

And I can't find anything I beat here. This should never be a bluff out of position against 2 people, and he should never be value betting worse.

(However, for the sake of accuracy, I'm ruling out any hands with clubs because of the speech on the turn. It makes me think that he was planning to give up until he saw that card, and with clubs I don't think that would have been the case. I might be wrong, but I actually think this is always hearts.)

+1

I think his sizing makes this a fold. He has to be bluffing a pretty high % of the time for the EV to be +.

At the table, maybe. Online, it's just good practice to think things through as much as possible.

One time when it helps to be accurate is if we think there's anything in his range that we can bluff out.

I don't think that's the case here either--I don't think he's betting anything that he intends to fold to a raise.

I think the flop is a pretty clear raise to $100ish. You put both of their ranges in tough spots.

Against 2 tight players, V1 is likely c-betting this flop with a lot of hands that can't continue against a raise. He also has V2 behind to worry about. V2 has committed 17.5% of his stack already, and has a range that probably bottoms out at TT and high flush draws... V1 is going to have to fold a lot.

V2's range has a few sets, zero 2 pairs and 1 big draw at best (45cc... Blocking both 89cc and 9Tcc is pretty sweet.) It's mostly overpairs and a few naked FDs. I tend to think he's not getting it in with those based on his description, so I expect him to fold a lot here too.

If called by V1, over-bet shoving is a big part of my turn plan (all flush cards, and a few others too.) Your hand will be somewhat disguised and I'd expect him to level himself into more than a few bad decisions with his bluff catchers. If called by V2 or both the rest of the hand will pretty much play itself. It only really sucks when V1 shoves... But I don't think he does that often enough for calling to be better than raising. Good luck.

EDIT: As played turn is good, and I think river is pretty close, but a fold.

Do you think he never bets 7x (I suggested 77 and A7 as possible hands in his range, although you don't think he has clubs) or that he never bet/folds 7x?

If you think he has 7x hands in his range (maybe he has 75 or 87) and bet/folds them, is there enough of a possibility there that you can't dismiss a bluff-raise outright and should crunch the numbers if you have time? I'd probably frame that question as how many hands better than 7x are in his range (assuming he calls a raise with all of them...if it's close, I might analyze a second case where he folds all non-flushes) so that I can figure out how many 7x combinations he has to have for a bluff-raise to be +EV.

I think he never gets to the river this way with any 7x.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me that the described Villain would make a "standard" bet on the flop with a flush draw, get called in 2 spots, then change tack and throw out a blocking bet when his draw improves. That's why I think QJ and A7 are unlikely. I think 77 is unlikely because I don't really think he bets the turn at all with that--I think it's a "give up" hand for him on the turn, even though he picked up the gutshot.

I could be wrong about any or all of that, but to me it just comes back to this: what did the T help that significantly changed V1's approach to the hand? And the only thing I can think of is backdoor hearts. Actually, maybe he could also have had QJ with no flush draw. But I don't think he bet/folds that, because he specifically sized his bet to get V2 all in, and seemingly not to leave himself room to fold to a raise.

I'm calling the river. I would have really liked a big turn raise. There's about 190 in there when it gets to us, I'm just gonna blast that 40 to like 200+ almost every time .

We can comfortably call preflop this deep. If we couldn't (if, say, we had T7s instead), we should 3b. Our 3b/continue range should be very wide for value, and should include a few combos of Axo just for the very occasional bluff, and our 3b/folding range should be the best of the hands we can't call with. We shouldn't never 3b/fold simply because once upon a time he 4b AJo. That's silly. That's like never b/f'ing the flop because you're playing someone who's capable for c/r'ing as a bluff.

I'm fine with Flop and Turn. OTR: it's very very hard for me to put him on JJ+ given his bet sizing and verbal tell. I have no idea why he would make a bet he knows is small on that brutal draw-heavy turn and then go big when many of those draws completed. The line and verbal tell looks exactly like a busted club draw, but based on your reads, he might be purposefully making his sizing look like that. 98 also fits the bill, though there are only 2 combos.

XYhh makes a lot of sense here (especially 76hh), as does QJ. I don't expect T9, 87 and sets to play turn/river quite like he did, but they're at least as likely as overpairs. Random 7x isn't completely impossible, but he would have to be trying to level us (repping a busted draw) by betting this hard with it into two players.

Put all that into stove, and I'm guessing you have a fold. I think this particular type of player shows up with something completely weird here some %age of the time too. That combined with the fact that he might not be capable of value betting anything worse than QJ makes me think that call and fold probably aren't that far apart.