what makes you think he's one of the best players in the room? fold now or call and reeval and most likely fold later. It's difficult to have a plan when villain is best in the room and also loose/passive pre and aggressive on later streets, we need more than just the label. Our sizing is pretty inducing but #1 regs in the room probably aren't going to spazz here or run some bluff vs an unknown seemingly tight person. They will play their hand face up and straight forward.

3bet to 180.

Countering a near min-raise with a min-raise back makes players spazz some of the time.

If V had a J I feel he'd tend to slowplay/rep a missed FD if a brick came off on the turn and try to get value that way.

$55 preflop

I'm in the B/C/B camp, as that will have the best chance at extracting 2 bets from PP's while also not giving infinite odds to Ax.

As played, I call flop c/r and soul read him on the turn. If he's the type of player who is incapable of slowing down once he starts bluffing then I call it off on turn/river.

I thought this worth highlighting. I couldn't disagree more.

Very good V's aren't playing GTO poker. They're making mistakes to induce larger mistakes from V's -- or, put another way, they're exploiting the mistakes V's make. Every time we adjust our play to exploit V's mistakes, we are making a mistake that might be exploited in turn.

If most of the field isn't noticing or exploiting a bet sizing tell, and I can use it to manipulate pot sizes to my liking, I'll do it all day long. If I don't do that, I'm not that good.

Of course, if I find someone that is exploiting this *enough to make a difference* I'll stop doing it. But the blanket statement that "'very good villains' don't have sizing tells" is, I believe, objectively wrong.

I'd love to hear who this villain is exploiting by telegraphing his hand strength/range preflop and then calling 3!'s OOP 100 BB's deep where he is forced to play fit-or-fold. All we have to do is c-bet our entire value range here (18 combos of AA-QQ + 16 combos of AK) and we will run him over. If he wants to hero call the flop with 66, even better. We can barrel so many turns that he will be forced to give up. And if he wants to continue opening a weak range/calling 3!'s OOP then we simply widen our value range and continue exploiting him.

i'm calling

Have you ever seen him do a WTF bluff, or try and value worse? Any ways, we have position, we are defiantly calling flop. We could get very lucky and turn a K but most likely we won't.

Turn can be tricky, but with 100bb I don't think I can find a fold. Considering this is a 3bet pot, we have a very strong hand, I would say it's a border line cooler if he has a J. It's kind of a silly spot.

I may fold turn if an A or diamond comes and he puts in a huge bet if I haven't seen him bluff.

Varying bet size based on hand composition is exploitive of those V's that don't notice the information, or don't realize its implications, or don't adjust to exploit it.

I have no opinion on whether this particular V is good or not. Nor am I saying that the other particulars of V's play were either good or bad.

All I'm saying is that varying the size of one's raise based on one's hand does not automatically make someone a bad poker player. Indeed, if you're against V's that don't notice, understand, or adjust, not varying one's raise size is leaving value on the table.

As you say, his exploit is in turn exploitable. If he is actually getting exploited, he may have to stop varying his raise size. Or he may have to vary his play enough that it's not a reliable tell, while still allowing him to usually vary his raise size as he likes. Or he could exploit his exploiter by intentionally doing this opposite of what he normally does.

LLSNL V's share a common trait that they are usually not paying sufficient attention, may not even realize what mistake is being made, and often won't properly exploit mistakes even if they do see them. That's an advantage we can use, by exposing exploits that they won't generally make. Obviously, if we're against V's we believe good enough to notice and exploit such mistakes, we close the weakness while those V's are around.

I was gonna skip this step because I think checking back is standard but I changed my mind and decided to include this step in case anyone thinks a bet is in order.

Checking turn might be standard but not necessarily best. Your hand is good 90+% of the time and the pot is large enough to not want to give a free card to any draw or Ax and a PP can easily get stubborn and call. Also there is some value in balancing your floats IMO (I'm calling flop c/r pretty wide btw). I'm sure I'll get flamed for this, but I kind of think 120/fold is sexy here and checking back river obv.

checking back seems fine.

You are talking about the odds of villain having certain cards that will continue or cards that beat us. None of these percentages mean anything once the villain calls and/or check raises this flop. At that point odds are very high that one of them has the other one crushed with a small chance villain has a flush draw.

From that point the hand is all about hero's read and what villains image of hero is. The math goes out the window.

So you're agreeing with me. Cool.

Actually turn is the most interesting street. Seems that cca potsize is AI.
Why the best player in room tries tricky check? He should know that diamond on the river killes action and sometimes even brings you flush.
He either has FD/gives up some bluffs or must believe that OP is more willing to bet than call (which apparently was wrong read, OP did not think about bet).
I would check turn too, but it is cos my plan otf is potcontrol and now would fold to turn bet. If OP planned call turn should bet now.

Well, sort of....but if it would be "lol-tastically bad" for villain to try to float this flop given heros image, and not only did he not float it, but he check raised the flop. And given that he is the best player in the room, we are back to a read.

Did he check raise the flop as a bluff because he knows hero has a nitty image and a check raise will make hero fold anything that doesnt include a J?

Or did he check raise the flop because he has a J and doesnt want hero checking behind if he happens to have something like AdKd?

The point is that the math means nothing here and it all comes back to a read. I guess my point is that you cant just say that based on the preflop odds you listed "theres only 14% chance Im beat and SPR is high, Im never folding"....and then call it a cooler when he has a J.

Don't see the V having a J here often. I'm betting to protect against his handful of outs. The only way we're getting more action is if V hits his pps for a FH or some turned gutshot/SD that was air on the flop.

Checking back is ok too, but we should assume that V has some outs against us. Possible FD or pps.

"The point is that the math means nothing here and it all comes back to a read."

Ofc his action changes his range, that changes the math but still we can think about the spot in terms of GTO or math. Villain surelly wants to raise Jx and balance with bluffs. FDs are first hands to use, besides he might go for several worse hands, e.g. AdX to achieve right ratio.
Lets say that V plays balanced range, it is possible. Now Kd is horrible blocker, does not block his valuerange and blocks some bluffs. Thats one of the reasons why it should be played by check flop and as played not calling down.

All true, but "best player in the room" can mean different things to different people. It could mean he never bluffs but also never makes mistakes so he wins a ton. It could mean he knows exactly who and when when to bluff and when not to.

Does the best player in the room call a 3 bet OOP with AdX? Unlikely, unless its AdQd. Pretty low odds of that I think.
So what you call GTO or math, I call a live read.

Yes likely both math, live read or experience leads to the same conclusion.

Avarita and Lapidator win the thread.

Check back flop>bet entire range small (around 1/3 pot)>>>>bet flop for greater than half pot.

When you get c/r on this flop by described V when you have ~5:1 spr and a snug looking 3b range, you just tend to be toast.

The prob with these spots in LLSNL is that V's notoriously have ranges that are way skewed toward value, i.e. not enough bluffs, yet H's all over the 2+2 world get pwned by self-leveling and station off in unfavorable spots. I'd give considerable thought to folding flop to the c/r in nearly all circumstances. That's why check back flop seems so nice. It's just so thin to think you are getting your stack in against an inferior range on this texture. You're pretty much targeting QQ with a flop bet. Smaller pairs are way more likely to call on the turn than the flop.

Mike,

Stop and take a deep breath.

At the point where V checks first to act on the flop: What range should we put him on?

This is before Hero acts...

(ETA: The only interesting decision so far in this hand is for Hero after V checks the flop. After this decision, the hand plays itself.)

I dont think that villains checking of the flop narrows his range much if at all. Most people check to the last aggressor.

Also, I dont think the hand plays itself after the check raise at all. Villain might check raise this flop and then decide to surrender if called.
He might pound away on the turn with a J or continue to bluff/semi bluff
He might get tricky and try to check raise the turn again if he thinks hero is aggro enough to bet his whole range on the turn if checked to.

Its easier to say this after seeing the flop check raise but I would normally check behind on this flop due to the fact the paired board card is a J. If it was a non broadway card I would be alot more inclined to bet and go to the felt.

That is exactly the point.

At the time Hero acts, V's range is quite wide, and the majority of it should not call a bet.

(Maybe he does anyway, but I think it's unlikely.)

Also, V's range has very little chance of catching up enough to beat H.

Finally, H should be willing to stack off in this hand if we can create a good circumstance to do it.

So we should check this flop to give V a chance to put $ in the pot.

I disagree with this, but w/e, IMO it's a small part of the hand.

Again, same question: What us V's range after that x/r?

The answer to this question will be math that tells you how to play out the hand.

I agree 100% that we should check the flop which is what I said one post above yours.

Great discussion. I'm curious if the check flop crowd would do the same with AK/AQ? Arguably, hero's CO 3! range should contain mostly missed AK/AQ (32 combos) and only 18 QQ+.

I would be more likely to bet with AK/AQ/AJ but not every time.