While it is great that we now have a set, the reality is that we're going to make very little more or potentially lose a lot of money. Outside of the UTG+1 possibly, anyone raising our bet is going to be ahead of us. A call at best is going to be a FD. At worst, it will be a hand that beats us and can't lay down to a bet.

A bet of $75 is fine but I'm making it hoping for folds.

5/5 $1285 eff.

UTG + 2 = Middle aged Asian guy, covers hero. I 3bet his UTG open from SB before. From $30 to $135 after 1 caller. Flop was T95 FD. I lead ~$175, he called. Turn was a 6x. I lead for $375, he folded and looked upset.

LJ = Random older Asian dude. Not a nit pre, but fairly fit/fold post.

Hero raises 22 UTG to LOL $15. Small, but not uncommon in these games. I've yet to do it at this table, but I've been experimenting with small opens from EP over the past month.

UTG + 2 3bets to $45, folds to LJ who flats, folds to hero who calls.

Flop $139

468

checked through

Turn $139

2

Hero fires $80, UTG +2 $200, fold, Hero calls.... only option, no? We're ~ breakeven to pair the board.

River $518

6

Hero...? Lead again, or go for a c/r? $1040 left in stacks.

Can't lead

Yes you can. B/f 225. Who cares if it's obvious. The times people call it off with a small flush are greater than the times they will value bet a small flush here. Curiosity > greed typically.

I care if it's obvious because most of my opponents won't payoff such a line with anything that would not have at least considered value betting when ckd to.

I also think this Vs line of 3b pre. Check. Raise turn is a reliably polarized range. I mean he has some "raise turn to get a showdown" JJc stuff, but those hands still could bet river in addition to some checked NF, AcKx, etc.

Are we willing to stack off with this boat here? I would be and think the best play to that end is a small weak looking blocker sized bet. I think villain has flushes or missed flush draws here and I want to add a little money to the pot and induce a bluff at the same time. I bet $150.

You can get called by worse but only better is going to raise. I like $200 for both value and as a blocking bet. If you get raised it's probably 46/68 and you can safely fold.

For those still interested,

Hero checks, V fires $225. $815 left in stacks. Hero..?

If v never has any bluffs donking river could be fine but I would rather check jam. Let the tilted v continue bluffing or going for value with worse so we can shove and he'll call because he'll have a harder time folding after putting in that last bet.

Obv river call

Stuffing river.

Yes, we will get called by worse. Yes, we will get called by 88 (once in blue moon)


But jamming will guarantee we tilt him. Unless he has exactly. 88, or 44 (which neither hand is likely in 3bet range, from mp)

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I cant see how you don't have the best hand otr, so probably jamming but pretty certain villian isn't calling anyway, think he often has bluffs here Ackx, kcxx or other spew.

Jamming river 100% of the time. I expect villain to hero call with an overpair a good portion of the time here, also I expect him to get sticky with a nut flush.

88 could be in his range, he 3bet pre, then slow played the flop hoping the LJ will bet, now he raises 200 ott. Or he has AKcc KQcc QJcc AQcc AJcc

I would hate for the river to go c/c so a bet is mandatory. The only likely combo that beats us is 88.

However, he throws out 225 into 515 I think he would value more with 88 so put the rest of it in. I'm not going to flat because of one combo that would have likely cbet the flop. if he has quads, good for him but he played it horribly otf.

coming in late but AP jamming river

I would be shocked if ANY flush is checking back the river. Besides, small flushes make up a near non existent portion of v's range here.

Results please