Relevant players

V (Button, $500) - Mid 30s to early 40s, reg/semi-reg (I play 1 or 2 times/ week (thu, fri or sat) and he's usually there. I've only played with him once before and we didn't have meaningful history. Seemingly TAGish. Limps less than most, opens more. Haven't seen 3bet or do anything out of line. White, ball cap, goatee. Looks like a HS athletic coach of some kind. Just sat down 10 15 minutes before.

Hero (CO, $650) - Late 20s to early 30s, folds a lot, opening frequently when VPIP. Villain has seen me 3bet and double barrel a guy off a hand w/ KJs since sitting down. I showed bluff (I know, I know). Laughing, having good time.

MP - limps
folds around to Hero
Hero (CO) w/ A Q makes it $15 to go.
V (Button) calls
SB - calls
BB - calls
MP - calls

Flop 4x,TdAd ($75)

Checks to Hero who???

Hero waits his turn to act.

What did Sb, Bb, & Mp do?

They just looked at each other blankly as hero acted out of turn

EDIT: Checks to hero...

Do I know this semi-reg? Does he talk a crap load of (somewhat bad) strat at teh table?

Betting this pretty large multi-way for value against FDs and TPmehK. At least $50, more likely $65. Folding to a c/r from most Vs, but not all, as some of these guys understand semi-bluffing somewhat (but tend to do so with bare draws instead of combo draws), and a few droolers (Such as D) will c/r a hand with meh showdown value for some reason.

He wasn't talking strat. Some other guys at the other end of table wouldn't shut up about it. I made a comment to him about it annoying me, so it might have kept him from it, dunno.

BTW, any mods want to edit the OP to include checking to hero?

There you go. Yeah, I table change to get away from a strat guy (own a fast food franchise) on the reg. He kills the table.

If you know V's name, PM me. I might have some reads you either haven't noticed or just don't fit in a post well.

Hero bets $50.

For later streets, do we think V likes to float? Do we think V thinks we cbet a lot?

Not sure on floating, but I perceive him as savvy enough to pull one off from time to time.

Hero does bet $50. V calls. Others fold.

Turn is 7 ($175)

Hero???

He checks to us, yes? I usually b/f about half pot here to charge single diamond hands, and prob still getting value from worse aces, which won't pay us on a lot of rivers unless they bink a flush to beat us.

V is on button.

Hero bets $95 ITT.

V thinks for a bit and calls.

River - 4h (Pot $365)

Hero?? Value spots continue to lessen. Do we c/c, b/f? What about sizing?

I would c/f turn and river in a multiway pot. V probably has you beat on turn after calling flop with three people behind him.

I c/f river. I think we're likely good, but I don't see anything we beat calling a third barrel, and most regish guys just aren't betting river without at least a flush on a board this scary. If he bets, I think we can be confident that we're beat. If he checks back, I don't think we lost value.

On the turn, I think we're behind, but still have equity in the hand we'd like to preserve

I think after the flop action and turn card, V has either an A (say he can flat pre with suited aces and AT+) or a flush (from suited broadways, SCs and S1Gs). I think a set would raise this flop, hoping for action from aces and flush draws. That gives him around 48 aces and only 10 - 15 flushes after removing the diamond A, T, and 7. We're behind about 40% of his aces and ahead of about 60% (counting AQ half in each camp). We're way behind his flushes. Overall, I think we've got about 40% equity, maybe a bit less depending on his preflop flatting range.

If we bet, he'll raise with many of his flushes (since they're not to the nuts and another diamond will either beat him or at least kill any action). He'll fold some of his weaker aces and call with 2P. He might also raise with an A + flush card.

If we check, he'll bet his flushes, probably his 2P and probably check behind his aces (esp with a flush draw).

If that's right, I think checking allows him to help us play correctly. He'll generally bet hands we're ahead of and check ones we're behind. Of course, if he floats frequently, or will bluff into us on this board frequently, checking is terrible.

If he checks behind, I b/f non-diamond rivers relatively small to encourage calls from his losing aces.

As played, I c/f river. I think most hands we beat folded the turn.

I'm good with a turn value bet. I like the 95 sizing very much. I like 95 because I don't want to build a large pot and we are targeting non-monster made hands. With the Ad and Td on board, while a flopped flush draw was possible, it's much less likely. V can't have AdXd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, you get the idea. In fact, there are only 3 Broadway flush draws (KdQd, KdJd, QdJd) and then of course some suited connectors. Though the 7d FURTHER blocks those. No 8d7d, 7d6d, etc. So it's not like there's a 2d and 4d on board, which block almost nothing.

That all said, flushes are possible but heavily blocked.

AT = 6 is possible. It can certainly raise flop, but it can call, too. Can't totally eliminate AK, though it's not very likely at all.

Then there's value from all other Ax (AJ = 8, A9s = 2, A8s = 2, etc).

Air is still possible (ie KQ turned flush draw).

Made hands that peeled flop and turned pair + draws are quite possible. Like JdJx (does QdQx often 3-bet pre?); KdTx, QdTx, JdTx, too. Those could station one more very small river bet.

Don't c/c. That sucks. It should be a bit obvious why.

Any feel for how many Ax he can have? My guess would be that he can have enough. AJ and Axs combos can add up if he would have some Axs.

I think c/f is a bit of a mistake. Thing is, yes, if I check and he bets a reasonable size, I am folding. But it's not impossible for him to bet a worse made hand (ie AJ) or air (ie KdQx). So while I like c/f quite a bit more than c/c, I dislike any line involving a check.

Since I feel there's value from worse Ax especially because the board blocks so many flushes, and there are a relatively large group of other weak hands in villain's range, even if he doesn't get past the flop with all combos, I very much like to bet/fold for value, and my sizing is smallish.

125/fold. Might even go 100/fold as I think more about The possibilities and combos of KdTx, QdTx, JdTx, JdJx, QdQx(3-bet pre?).

I don't want to overstate the amount of value.

Looking at lines relatively, I'm thinking something like

b/f small >> c/f >>>>>>>>>> c/c >>>>>>>>>> b/c

I ended up betting $95 again. I was caught between "don't fail to get river value!" and "There isn't a lot that you beat that will call!" I wasn't too afraid of getting blown off my hand, because I didn't see a raise likely being a bluff.



Thanks for all the feedback.

Yep. Sometimes it's hard to balance thoughts like yours here w/ trying be stubborn for a little value from the river.

You might well be right that a turn c/f is not the best line. My analysis may be faulty or we may be giving different weights to various V tendencies. I'm interested in do some more analysis to see what comes up.

I think flatting with AK is a possibility, though discounted.

I would have expected to almost always fold his air or weak draws on the flop. Hands like KdQx seem pretty weak to call a $50 flop bet with only $485 behind. I'd put those in the float category.

Cold calling a PFR with QTo or KTo seems a pretty bad move to me. I might be wrong about that, or I might be giving V too much credit.

Using Flopzilla, I started with a cold calling range of:
22+
A2s+, A9o+
54s+, 75s+
T9o+
KJo, KTs, K9s

Would he flat pre with KK? Would he call with QQ or JJ on the flop? Let's give him 6 of 15 combos from JJ - KK.

I assumed he raised sets and folded anything else other than TP+, FD, or some PPs. Under these assumptions, after the flop bet/call...

He has 64 total combos: 9 flushes, 9 2P, 40 aces (8 better, 6 chopping, 26 worse), 6 JJ - KK.

We're ahead of 32 combos, tied with 6 combos (two with free-rolls for him), behind 26 combos. Everything we're behind has at least 3 outs to improve and some have about 12.

For the c/c scenario, I assume his betting range is unipolar (he'll bet with all hands of some strength and better, rather than with only the top and bottom of his range). Since his range has very few hands that need to bluff, I think that's reasonable.

If we check turn and he bets, we fold. If he checks turn, we'll b/f river for value. I'm going to assume he always calls the river bet for simplicity.

For the b/f scenario, if he calls, we're going to c/f river, again assuming V will again have a unipolar betting range.


Check/call turn; bet/fold river
Best case: He bets (let's say $50) with all the combos we're losing to and checks behind with the ones we're beating. Our river bet gets called and wins almost every time (except for pushing AQ). Total EV is about $50. 59% to see river, 75% for it to be blank, EV of river bet is $38. Total EV is 59% * 75% * ($75 + $38) = $50.

With some bluffs:
He bets $50 with all that beat us plus about 33% more bluff combos thrown in. For a $50 bet this is slightly less than GTO. That's 26 winners plus 9 bluffs, about 55% of his range.

We reach the river 45%, it's blank 75%. We're always good on the river, so the river bet has 100% EV. EV is 45% * 75% * ($75 + $45) = $41.

Interestingly, if he knew our strategy, he would bet all the hands he's behind and then snap off our river bet with the winners he'd checked. He'd literally win the hand 100% of the time, frequently collecting another bet.



Bet/fold turn; check/fold river

If he'll fold everything but his flush draws, EV is about $57

If he calls with all 2P+, EV is about $40.

If he psychically calls only with what that beats us or chops, EV is about $21

If he calls with half his aces, EV is about $25.

If he calls everything, EV is about $46.


Conclusion
I think the most likely c/c scenario is that he bets all that beats us with some bluffs thrown in. When we get to the river, we're mostly good but he occasionally throws another bluff at us. Let's say EV for that is around $30 - $35, a bit less than the idealized analysis above.


I think the most likely b/f scenario is that he folds most of his hands, calling or raising with the flushes, but folding his aces and even some 2P hands. We've shown a lot of strength and even if we don't have a flush or set, we're likely to have a better ace or 2P. Let's say that ends up being around the $40 scenario above.

They're really close, but b/f is slightly better here.

If V is passive and stationy, c/c is probably better. He's not going to fold as much to a turn bet, and is more likely to play straightforwardly to the check.

If V is bluffy, b/f both strategies suffer, but b/f probably suffers less and so is more betterer.

This is probably all tl;dr. But I find this stuff interesting. I'll buy a virtual beer for anyone that spots a mistake.

Forgive me for late bump, but these have been awesome discussion points. The thought process is a bit over my head. I get the gist of it when really going back over the hand after playing, but how do you reach that level of thinking while in the hand.

I'm talking about different combos, etc. Tbh, when I'm in the hand my thoughts are more basic. Things like "There are a lot of hands that can beat me, and most of the ones I beat have probably folded my now. Should I continue to try and get value? How?"

Understanding complex ranges in detail, combos of hands, etc. on the fly is not somewhere that I'm at. Do you get there eventually, or is it just that your gut instinct and warning bells become subconsciously more refined?

You don't do this math at the table, but you do estimate it. The more you go through the full EV calcs, combo counts, etc. The better and faster your estimates get at the table.

I can't remotely do this type of thinking in the hand. Not even close. I suspect there are few who can.

But tearing apart the problem like this sometimes helps me see underlying themes or principles that I can then apply more generally.

It also helps develop mental "muscle memory" so that I'm more likely to make a better decision when I don't have all the info or the time to go through the whole process.

And the reason I subject others to it, it exposes my thinking to critical review, providing the bracing benefit of having other people point out the flaws. Being less wrong is just like being more right.

Edit: Ninja'd by Garick.

Nice hand, great discussion.

Yeah, with TP2K, I'm leary of building a big pot. I might check the turn, and I think he checks behind (leary of KJdd?). I make/lose less betting the river after he checks behind, but as mentioned, if he calls the turn, we've got to catch up, and checking the river probably means he fires.

If he bets the turn, I'm OK letting this go. If he doesn't float, we are pretty sure to be behind, and may be drawing dead (not just to 3 outs).

You're being results-oriented - you're bummed about the results.

The question we need to ask is: can you bet the river for thin value? Lke I've said, I think you can. Just thinking about Ax, why can't he have and call with AJ? A9s? A8s? A6s? A5s? A3s? A2s?

But hey, let's say I'm wrong... then the question is "how wrong am I?" It's not black and white.

Even if a bet is -EV, it's never going to be *that* bad in this case imo. Just because you lost the hand does not make it 100% bad, you see? Generally you want to win 50% vs. his calling range when you value bet. What if you beat 45% of his calling range? Then it's just slightly -EV.

The point I'm making is that the outcome of this hand is irrelevant (sometimes it is relevant... like V had a hand you never ranged him on but that made sense, and so the outcome is like, ah, ****, this matters). In this case, it doesn't matter at all - we should have known that a hand like AK was possible. It doesn't matter that it's what he had - what matters is what the rest of his range looks like and what he does with those hands. Again, I still contend he has enough Ax (as well as the other possible weaker hands I mentioned before), and that we can get thin value. And I think AK is unlikely and must be discounted.

I think any time the first PF caller is also the first post flop caller in a multiway pot with action behind him on an ace high FD board, you're smoked on the turn the vast majority of the time when diamond comes. That's why I would c/f turn and River. Doubt V bets worse Ax when the diamond hits turn and if he's any good he shouldn't have many AXd hands and even those usually check turn except maybe AxKd or AxQd

Why is that? We're CO vs. V on the BTN pre-flop, which suggests V's range for flatting can be pretty wide and can contain plenty of Ax but generally no / very few combos of AK. While Ax are pretty plentiful, it's hard to have many diamond draws when we can account for the Ad, Td and 7d. Then we get to the turn heads up, which will only loosen V's calling range on future streets vs. our small bets because we're no longer multi-way - he's in position with no one left to act / perfect information on action and what bet /size he needs to call.