I play pre and flop the same.

Lead turn for $150. We're obviously targeting JJ+ and Qx. If we check, I don't think Villain is double barreling with much here.

I expect a good player as described to find folds with most of his PP that don't contain a club, and call with like AAc, KKc and all Qx. If we check to him we allow him to check back all PP and maybe even some of his weaker Qx hands.

Jam non club, non paint/A rivers.

I don't know why you think a Hero's bet OTT is face-up, unless you believe Villain regards Hero as a fish. There are several Qx,Acx, or Kcx hands hero can hold, as well as a made flush. Villain can call with overpairs, Qx, and flush draws. If Villain has air, then Hero can slow-play this and maybe get a bet from villain if he barrels the turn. But hero might not get value if villain doesn't barrel and could lose outright to another club on the river.

If a good villain has Qx or a hand with value, is he really folding ott to a bet? By betting, we only lose value from the time villain would have barreled the turn (which isn't even a guarantee.) Granted, if we never bluff here without a flush, our hand is face-up. But we need to give Hero a little more credit here.

If you are folding Qx, AA, KK, JJ, TT, or even Acx here then you are exploitable.

So it seems like the consensus is that this 10-25 god will make a sick hero fold of AcAx if we lead turn large but that if we check he's going to go for super thin value rather than take a free card and realize all his equity for free?

Story checks out.

I mean, the posts directly above you don't support that, so no, I would say that is not the "consensus".

I dont know what consensus is ITT: but i have never stated what youre saying. "Consensus" is that when we donk this turn in a 3 bet pot OOP our hand is incredibly faceup, unless OP have a really balanced bluff frequenzy in these kind of spots. If that is the truth- then sure go ahead and donk the turn with a made flush.

If thats not the case though (for most of the population at these stakes), they pretty much have zero bluffingrange in this spot in a 3 bet pot, and then its easy peasy for villain to fold huge parts of his valuerange. Whenever you face a skilled player you are often better off trying to take lines that keep your range as wide as possible, worst thing is to take obvious lines that define your own range.

There are quite a few people here that are advocating a bet on the turn.

If villain is going to treat us like the population and assume that any donk bet is a made flush, then we should be betting the turn with atc, since villain will be folding huge parts of his value range and is easily exploited.

I would venture that the worst thing is actually to put money into a pot when you have the worst of it and then not put any money into the pot when you get the best of it. Pretty clear recipe for not winning at LLSNL.

Im pretty torn now. Def think leading is best, but we need to bluff sometimes too. I think AcKx would work well as a bluff ott. Floating oop otf might seem optimistic, except that everyone clearly thinks ott this is a phenomenal bluffing opportunity. So 18% of the time we have a great bluffing opportunity with lots of equity, and the rest of the time we check fold turn, but id guess that we have the best hand or same hand as villain occasionally, plus we have 6 outs vs TT, JJ. We cant bluff small pairs ott because that would be a horendous call preflop vs the 3bet oop

I like the turn bet. What happened next Mike?

Why can't we have AdJd/AcKx/JdTd/7c7x type hands as bluffs? Are those too light to float the flop with?

Why would this hand be a fold pre? I have plenty of offsuit broadways, lower suited gappers and small pairs that I am folding before I fold this hand.

Because we are OOP against the toughest player at the table with a hand that plays poorly against a 3bet range. And when we call, we frequently will be forced to check/fold most flops or level ourselves into shoveling more money in the pot OOP with one pair or a draw.

It's nice when we bink a flush, as we did here, but more often than not this results in a mediocre spot OOP vs a solid player we have zero read on.

I concur.

Grunching. Flop is a cbet.

Maybe you should un-grunch and read the whole first post

fml 3b pre ty

4b pre or fold... 600 eff just fold.

AP Ck call flop. Ck call turn. Ck fold river.

I hate the flat pre OOP (ESPECIALLY against a better player when we only have a $600 stack). It's basically forcing us to play fit or fold (I don't think hero is calling for any other reason).

Leading the turn is going to turn out hand face up for sure and help him to fold correctly. I would rather risk it getting checked through and lead the turn that has a better chance of being called than to fold him out now.

I don't think it's horrible, but hero *has* to be x/r bluffing a bit. I'd think gut-shots + BDFD would be a good option, or maybe second pair hands (good villains will tend to double barrel a good amount, and so I don't like x/c second pair that much).

Obviously we can do this with monster draws as well, for our raw equity in the hand... But we don't want to do it with 8-9 out draws or we'll have too much equity to fold to a 3bet, essentially value-owning ourselves against the top of villain's range.

If we never plan to take an aggressive action post-flop except when we make a strong (2pair+) hand, we will lose money calling pre. And if we're only doing this with monster draws, that won't be enough.

We should be 4! AKo pre, especially the crowd that thinks this villain has tons of spazz that is just going to spew off on the turn.

So we are back to the original problem of not having any bluffs OTT.

We have all pocket-pairs though. If villain decides our donk lead ott is more pocket-pairs than hands with a queen or flushes or boats, he might be induced here.

Personally, I somewhat prefer checking turn, but I don't think betting is terrible.

Why would we lead turn with PP's if we think villain is wide?

Either this good winning 10/25 villain has a linear 3! range here vs. a complete unknown who has been at the table for a whopping 20min (more likely) or villain is spewing with a polarized range without any idea how hero will respond (less likely).

I'm going to go with the exploitative population read that villain is 3! a linear value range here which could be as wide as 99+/AQ+/KQ+ and plan my hand accordingly around that assumption. So rather than hope and pray that villain is just clicking buttons and is going to continue spewing OTT with air, I'm going to target his value range that has 23% equity with a near 0EV bet.

This guy can't be simultaneously "playing perfectly" and folding his 0EV value range (which is a mistake due to the possibility of implied odds) while also spewing off with his air/zero equity hands. And if he is the spew monkey that you think he is (not you pocketzero's, the thread collectively) then why can't he also spew jam over our weak looking 1/2 PSB with that same range, especially when holding the A blocker?

Because it's so hard for us not to have a hand that I expect villain to check back turn a lot with his air. So why let him realize his equity for free?

Not sure this helps at all but about 5 mins earlier, this same villain straddled UTG. It folded to the SB who called. I called the BB with KQs (being 90% sure he would raise with us looking weak and him having position).. Villain raised to $50. SB called and I 3 bet to $200. They both folded.

He said "Wow, Nice move. Im not used to having to deal with that".

My only point is that even though we've only been playing 20 mins together I doubt he thinks Im your standard 2/5 donk.

I'm not the one that is trying to let him realize his equity for free but people here are convinced he's spewing air OTT hence why leading a PP wouldn't make sense (under that assumption which I don't agree with).

Yea. He thinks you're a fish Mike. I'm serious. Not used to dealin with the ol' limp backraise from the bb at T25. The info is important.