Bet small, less than half pot. $80-$100. Get value. He might call with all of his Qx and pairs.

I doubt he's checking back all SDV hands.

If we can't lead turn when our flush hits we shouldn't be playing this hand or calling this flop bet. We are just never going to make money on the hand if we think he is folding almost his entire range on turn.

Lead $130 and expect to get called by Qx and most high club hands.

When we lead turn I agree we mostly have flushes boats and Qx hands but that's also our range when we check turn, he checks back and we bet river. We don't really have any bluffs here once we call flop and the flush completes, best to get value when there are still available draws.

thats what i want to do. why does it matter this guy plays higher? maybe we can take a different line vs him.

Pre, 3betting, calling or folding are all ok IMO vs the described villain. I suppose it depends on how big you think your edge is vs the rest of the table; if its big I generally tend to avoid marginal-ish spots like these.

Flop, as played like a check-call to mix it up against an assumed better player.

Turn I dont like leading at all.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

im all for leading and my main reason is that we are going to be in a bad spot if any broadway comes and or any comes.

are we really check/folding river if turn checks through? whats our plan for the river? We what are good blanks, non non broadways, no Q, also if board pairs are we ever getting anymore value at all form any hand we beat?

Seems like we are assuming if we play this hand passively then Villain will spew off another bet to us. Id rather not chance that and charge himf or any draws he might ahve and/or take the dead money right now

He can't overfold when we have zero bluffs.

Anything around half pot will make for a slightly -EV direct odds call for his 7-10 out hands like AKx, AAx and Qx.

We capture our small +EV edge on the turn and it's up to us to make the disciplined folds on obvious rivers that improve his collective range.

It's going to be incredibly tough for villain to choose when to correctly bluff his worse hands because we can always be nutted and therefore when he bets river scare cards we can safely fold knowing he most likely got there.

^^^
sorry was being snarky.

IDK man, just feels we are ahead so mich and so much of his range will contonue on with a call because they have equity as well.

Cant we make a bet here thats neutral EV while still getting money into the pot?

We're not deep enough for a winning 10/25 villain to make a blatantly -EV call on the turn. Just because his range "has equity" doesn't mean he will call irrespective of the direct + implied odds being offered. The best we can realistically hope for is a very small boost to our overall EV with a near 0EV bet.

We've got 77.3% vs. the following range. This means a $90 bet on the turn will require villain's range to have 22.8% equity to make a break even 0EV call, ignoring future implied odds.

[90 / [90 + (215 + 90)] = 90/395 = 22.8%



So I would likely be betting anywhere from $100-125 here depending on how I think villain views me. If he has no respect for my game and thinks I will pay him off on paired boards then I will bet slightly more. If I think he respects my game then I will bet a little less and closer to a 0EV bet.

I think this is a superior line to betting pot+ or x and being freerolled by his hands with >20% equity. Potting the turn is equivalent to the guys that make obscenely large preflop raises with JJ/TT because they are afraid of playing postflop.

Pre is pretty bad. 109s is somewhere near the bottom of a HJ opening range. Just fold the bottom of your range. You're not even that deep

Flop is std. leading turn is just absolutely terrible. Checking is 100% std.

I feel like our hand is pretty much face up if we lead this turn, and a winning skilled 10/25 player will certainly know this. We make it easy for him to correctly fold huge parts of his range.

The way i see it our best line to win money off this type of player is to keep our own range as wide as possible in order to maximize our chances that villain either:

1) Valueowns himself.

2) Have som bluffs in his 3 betting range (OP also stated that he doesent know what villains 3-bet range really is), and feels compelled to run a multistreet bluff in order to try make us fold whatever we have.

I dont agree that I have zero bluffs. A standard nit probably has zero bluffs, but a good player shouldnt. I also would probably bet something like JcJx here and it wouldnt be a bluff.

I agree with everything else you wrote though and I led $100.

T9s is nowhere near the bottom of my opening range from the HJ.

Can you name any bluffs that you float flop with OOP and lead a club turn? I'm having real trouble identifying those. Something like AcKx? Not really sure that's even a bluff since I doubt he is generally folding better hands.

What hands are your bluffs ott?

Thinking about it more, there really aren't too many if we are calling hands like JJ/TT a value bet and not a bluff. Some small percentage of the time I would lead the turn with small pairs (77 or smaller). I would call that a bluff and would expect it to work a fair amount of the time since he cant call with any non paired non club hand or even something like TT-77 with a club.

Again, I have no idea what his 3 bet range is. Especially this small 3 bet.

I bet ~$195. Villain either 3 bet light and cbet with air or has Qx. If he 3bet light, he's probably giving it up anyway, doubt he barrels again. No reason to give him a free chance at a club. If he calls, our river decision should be straightforward. (Especially when the Jc hits )

How do you know he doesent feel compelled to fire again if he is 3-betting light and sits there empty on the turn when the flush comes in?

What make you think he doesent double barrell if he was C-betting the flop with air and maybe want to outplay hero as a player who usually plays higher stakes?

I think a player of this caliber (regarding to OPs description) is more likely to make an aggressive move mistake, than he is to make a calling mistake against a check-call flop donk the turn when the main draw hits and hero most likely has very few bluffs if any at all.

Why cant villain have AA/KK/JJ/TT? Those aren't lite 3 bets and they aren't a Q.

It is possible he double barrels the turn, but he made a small 3 bet and a small flop lead, which doesn't indicate much aggression on his part in this hand.

I don't think we can x/c on the turn, since villain has decent equity on the river. That means we either lead or x/r. We lose value if he checks it back to us and let him see the river. What if he checks it back to us and a club, A, Q, 8, or 3 hit? He can hit or rep a bigger flush or full house and put us in a tough spot. If we bet the turn, we force villain to pay to see the river and can narrow his range, making our river decision clearer.

Against a tough opponent, I don't like to give them chances to catch up or bluff me, so I bet.

That's true, but I don't mind betting against them either, since I (EDIT)only expect them to call with a club and overpair and don't want to see a club fall on the river for free. I admit my thinking might be flat-out wrong, but against a good opponent I want to take the lead when I believe I have the best hand and not let him catch up or put a move on me.

My experience playing tough opponents has thought me alot, but one thing is a key component regarding all of them: they are more likely to put money into the pot as the aggressor wich means they are doing the betting/raising, than they are to put money into the pot by calling.

Our hand is so faceup and villain can easily fold the majority of his valuehands, no to mention all the bluffs he might have. Why is it faceup? Because population reads is pretty clear that nearly anyone has enough bluffs when they take this line. Its pretty much strictly for value.

If we wanted to take the aggressive line i believe flop was a better time to do it: then our range is totally uncapped and can be everything from Qx, full boat,flushdraw or a pure bluff from villains perspective.

This line is a classic line i see from fish and rec players all the time. They are never raising the flop with a draw due to their passive nature, so they check-call- and when they bink their hand they are donking sort as a desperation move because they know good villains is smart enough to check-back the turn alot cause flushdraws are huge part of a standard continuerange on this flop. And then they get zero value.

I cant remember how many times ive correctly folded a strong hand in similar situations really- i love when villains play their hand faceup like this and makes it easy for me to make an exploitative fold.

I think your thinking is correct. I just think your range for him was wrong. Its not just a lite 3 bet air type hand or a Q.

The reason I initially discounted TT+ was that the 3 bet size was small. I don't rule it out, I'm just used to players in my regular game making bigger 3 bets with TT or JJ and sometimes slow-play KK or AA. My home game doesn't really apply to villain, so I was wrong on that. For the players in my home game, a small 3 bet is usually a light 3 bet or AK/AQ type of hands. AA-QQ is pretty polarized, they go big or slow play. Again, this doesn't apply to villain here, just why I thought this way.

OP,

what do you do with 66 on this flop?