For those good players that understand ranges and other concepts well, I'd love to know what you think the right play is on the river.

the main villain is a good thinking player at the table that beats this limit with ease. If anything, he proly bluffs too much for the optimal play at this limit, but he value bets well in spots as well.

Hero has been playing straight forward and aggressive for the session, won a big pot with QQ against AA and KK, so sitting deep. Villain starts with about 500 and hero covers, 1/2 game.

Pre flop:

MP limps, villain OTB limps, SB limps, hero in the BB raises to 15 with TT, everyone calls. Good games. pretty standard raise size at 1/2 and also bigger to compensate our lack of position as well.

Flop: (60)

2 3 9 r

SB (weak passive player) checks, hero bets 40, MP folds, villain calls OTB, SB over calls.

Turn: (180)

7 r

SB checks, hero bets 110, villains calls OTB, SB says "oh you called, so I fold then" and folds.

River: (400)

8 r

villain has about 335ish left, what do we do?

Option 1: Shove the river.

I think it's the worst option since we are never getting called by worse from this particular thinking player. I would say that he doesn't even have any 9 in his range after his turn call. Before you say that he might, just ask yourself, do you ever call with A9 against a straight forward good villain when he bets into 3 people for 110 on a 9 high board on the turn in a 1/2 game? I didn't think so.

Option 2: Check call the river.

Option 3: Check fold the river.

If we think villain's calling range is rarely 9X on the turn, then it's almost entirely made up of draws and slow played sets.

Option 4: Bet small and call off.

Option 5: Bet small and fold.

5 is proly the best line in most cases if we think there's some 9x in his range but a bit awkward given villan's SPR. but if we don't, then option 3, exploitable but it's live poker where most players don't want to bluff off 150bb on the river.

What do you think?

Would help if we knew ur hand

sorry, TT, but it's not really different than AA except we block T9 now which is a part of his limp call range OTB.

Based on everything he said my reading abilities. Tell me he has TT.

Wow I was right. Damn those pesky reading skills.

I mean you seem to be worried of sets only so check call river, but I do like betting small and calling a shove best. Since someomtimes he just pays off small bet and that was max value.


Meh check turn lol.

Check try to get a read, make new decision.

Or bet small. He has 45 or a set. Limping button makes 45 more likely, also more combos. Unless he would dump 45 on turn. Could have two pair as well. Set plays same way.

If he bluffs too much, may want to check and call his bluff and pay him off. Not a fun spot

You lost the hand didnt you? Hence your explanation of villian... It seems like a pretty straight forward spot for good players that understand ranges and other concepts well...

hard to play over pairs oop 250bb deep against good thinking players.. it's like a guessing game, he knows that I have an over pair and he bets big.. so is he making me fold an over pair or is he getting max value from my over pair?

Didn't read the end but turnbet is way to thin here. As played c/f river... lol at doing everything else.

It's hard to get 3 streets of value vs this opponent on this board. I love checking back turn and then bluff catching or value-betting river, think that's much more profitable vs this villain here on this board.

How is the turn bet SO thin? SB and villain could both have 9x and 45 after calling the flop. Do we just check and give free cards to draws, and lose value from 9x? I think you could argue that since it's thin on the turn then the sizing could've been smaller, like around 80 (less than half pot)

I'd be very suspicious of V having a set after he calls the turn bet. Prob c/f, he's not double floating you to make you fold and he should check back a 9 if he has one. Turn bet is way too big on the dryest board in the world. Do you expect him to call with 9x when you bomb flop and turn?

$25 flop $40 turn IMO

we are in the BB and there's no option to check back turn. Also, what's our plan if we check there and villain bets the turn? c/c or c/f the turn? if we c/c, what rivers do we c/c and what rivers do we c/f? It's basically a guessing game.

This all day....thinking or not thinking player, it's a call against a known and shown maniac but otherwise nothing is calling turn that big that isn't already beating you, and if he's stuffing river it's like 3 combos of missed draw and 20 combos of 2pair + sets. I am just not putting my stack in this thin ever unless it's a maniac/leveling war. If he can float to river and stuff a missed draw good for him, keep in mind though ur range a like A9s to AA so it's not easy for him either.

After the pf action i think v's range can include 22 - 66 (feels like higher pp's would raise button with better). Also any number of decent suited or connectors.

After flop betting... i think we can eliminate all pp save 22 and 33. Some 9x and 45 might still be around. So only 6 combos ahead of us and about 25 behind.

We make a big barrel on the turn and he sticks.... so all the combos of 45 go (unless he's really running a deep long-game float). Probably the only 9's left at A9s and 97s. And since you've discounted A9 (I wouldnt be able to with my typical opps)... you are only left with hands that beat you. So check fold.

Of course, if V. knows that you are capable of assigning him nothing but hands that beat you based on him continuing to call...

I don't understand why you and other people think 45 wouldn't stick around on the turn facing 110 into 180 with 330 something behind...

We have demonstrated that we have a very strong range by betting the turn, over pairs and possible sets (99), I would think it's a dream for 45 with the current pot odds plus the huge implied odds with a deep stack.

Hand is fine assuming you check/fold river for reasons given.

Your sizing choice+general cappedness creates such a thin value betting range for yourself that you are nearly obligated to ck-f the riv once a semi-capable player calls this turn. You need to find sizings that will keep you both wide enough for IP riv range to include some reasonable bluff catchers. Unless V is a station, you blew that portion out of there when you went 110 ott.

Fwiw TT doesn't always = AA here... It's conceivable that with 1 limper and only the blinds behind, that a 1-2 player would mix in limps with TT+ otb every once in a while. Whether or not you include that in his range, it's still going to call almost any bet sizing you make given the underrep with an occassional fold from the 7 TT/JJ combos facing a large third barrel.

You're posting this hand apparently because, now that you've been called on the turn, the river is also a guessing game, but it's a guessing game for more money where Villain has an extra street to gather information on what he thinks you have.

When a player I have labeled as a smart thinking player calls me with position, I am usually trying to think ahead early in the hand to bad spots that I want to try to avoid later in the hand. It seems like your decision to bet the turn didn't really take into account how you were going to react on the river if various different calling/folding scenarios occurred. Did you expect to just take the pot down on the turn?

Pretty much what I was gonna say.


Preflop- I wasn't there so I don't know but I will usually go bigger.
Flop- fine.
Turn- mistake. At least it was a mistake because you apparently put no thought into your plan going forward. Think ahead. It will help your actions in the present.

I guess I'm projecting a little. Up to the turn - the V has committed about $50. Calling the $110 turn bet on an OESD gives you less than 3:1 odds when you need about 5:1. Yes - if V can hit and stack - his odds are there. But that's by no means certain and the turn seems to be the point where many/most players on draws give it up.

I did mention a 'deep long-game float'. If villain correctly put hero on an OP - then he's sized nicely to shove on any river card - and most thinking hero's are going to go thru the analysis we did and give credit for at set/2p hand. If that's in the back of his mind all the time, and hitting the OESD is just plan B.... then it's a very cool play.

Results?

start by checking turn imo

As played, check/fold river

GRUNCH:

I'm checking the turn. The turn bet messed things up for you pretty bad. You got yourself into a tough spot, and don't really see what worse hands are calling you there. 45 is possible, but just not THAT likely -- it's not that big a part of his button limping/calling flop AND turn range. It looks like a set -- there's not much else he could have (if he really is a very good player, it seems to me).

Cannot agree with checking turn. Ott are many hands like 9x, SD, Ax+gutshot with at least 5outs, with check we are giving free more than 20% equity. Too much.

Guessing otr is not so horrible. We just check our entire range and then call KK+ 99 and may add several QQ. Check river does not loose value when we expect that the player does not pay 3 streets with 9x.

TT=AA/KK in this spot fyi. I just dont see much value in betting turn. We essentially have a bluff catcher now at this point as the board is soooo dry there are not many draws.