Hello 2+2,

Local Casino.

Hero (30yo clever looking white guy) Has been at the table for about half an hour due to table brake up. Hero has been fairly active preflop taking down pots W/O showdown, haven't played any big pots, haven't shown down any hands. Hero is a regular at local casino and has never seen villain before (45yo fat unhealthy looking male). Hero and Villain played one pot before 15 minutes which is illustrated below:

9 handed table.
Villain utg+1 opens to 14
Hero looks down at A Q and 3bets to 54
Cutoff and SB both call and so does villain.

4 players, Flop (216) K Q 7

checks to hero, who bets 62. All villains calls.

Pot (464) 9

All checks,

River (464) 3

All checks, Villain shows Q J

Hero wins pot.

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OTTH

Villain plays, 850 hero covers (~220 BB)

Hero is in MP2 and finds K K and opens to 20.
V 3bets to 50 from cut off. Folds around to hero who makes 140.
Villain thinks for a few seconds and 5bets to 450. Hero?

Hero in this case is a friend of mine, and we disagree on what to do. I know our action in this particular situation is very villain depending. Unfortunately the given info is the only info we have. Hero and I have a bet on the line on what option is best. We let 2+2 decide.. call fold or shove?

Could be a cooler .... but. I'm never folding KK to a guy that called a 3bet with QJo. Shove.

Thread title Grunch

5bets in LLSNL are basically the nuts. You're smoked. Fold and be proud you saved however much you saved.

*i would call if <100bb deep only because any 4! basically pot committed you anyway

Edit: read OP

220 bb deep, even though V called a 3! loose and have seen Hero 3! looser than an average LLSNL player, still, a 5! is pretty solidly AA. We block AK, so unless V is going to start 5! AQ or QQ, were not really in great shape GII here

Fold.
Easy fold.

Calling with crap hands is SO much different than 5betting with crap hands.

When H wants to fold to 5b then only call his 3b.

You are too deep to be 4betting this hand unless you have some sick meta game.

I would just call his 3bet and see how the hand progresses. Once he 5bets i'm pretty much done with the hand.

Getting 6-1. His calling QJ for 3 bet is fine.

Have hard time folding KK ever pre. But you found the spot.

I much prefer to flat his 3 bet, 220 BB deep. Postflop play is rather easy, with KK vs a standard 3 bet range.

I can see either argument to shove or fold. Since your villian 3bet QJo he could be overvaluing AKs in this situation. Because of that read before I'm never folding this...

If you didn't have that read on him I would instantly fold this hand bc 5bets are only polarized to AA.

his 5bet is massive though - Scared money with AA or he wants a fold?

Villain did not 3bet QJo. Villain raised QJo in early position, was 3bet by Hero, there were two other callers and then Villain also called. Now, I don't like raising in early position with QJo, and I think it's a pretty obvious fold to the 3bet OOP even with two other callers, so both of those bad plays should be noted.

Also worth noting that Hero 3bet Villain with AQo which is a pretty light 3bet. Villain seems like a fish but we can assume even he also noticed this...

I'm shipping it here. That's an aggressive move and I don't think folding is terrible. But Villain is a fish and just saw us 3bet him fairly light. He could easily be doing this with QQ, AKs, or even JJ ("i'm not going to let this guy push me around!"). At this point it's around 700 more to win a pot of 1700. Never folding KK here.

Calling QJ with 2 over callers is very +EV. Although the open in live game is generally pretty bad given most live dynamics

Even if we only continue with 2 pair +, and our open ended straight draws. It is plus EV call.

He has to be raising larger range than 1 you provided to be be a profitable call. Assuming he isn't always 5 betting QQ.

He can have only 2 combos of AK suited as we block 2.

Do you really believe that calling a nearly 4x 3bet with QJoff out of position with two other cold callers is "very +EV"?

It's not very +EV or marginally +EV, it's an absolute disaster and recipe to burn money (note Villain dumped an extra $100 when he did it in the hand we are referencing). With all due respect, posters come on here seeking reputable advice, and suggesting such a play is "very +EV" is remarkable.

In early position, I'm never even limping QJoff. I'm definitely never raising, but if I did - and Villain did - I'm absolutely insta-folding to a nearly 4x 3bet and two cold callers. His entire pre flop play is a series of mistakes, each one compounding the others.

As for the rest of your post, I don't understand what you mean when you reference a profitable call. I never suggested the OP make a call. I suggested they shove.

Yes calling 6-1 is profitable preflop. His PFR is bad. But after that mistake. Call is fine.

His call on flop is bad.

Me saying call preflop. I meant call his 3 bet. Instead of 4 betting.

I do not want him to ever fold pre. Flatting his 3 bet is very +EV . 4 betting this deep is trouble. Easy to play hand 200BB deep by flatting 3 bet with KK

Because this time he decided to 5b it?



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Et même si ce n'est pas vrai. Il faut croire à l'histoire ancienne.

QJ hand doesn't help the decision much.

Vast majority of villains are only gonna call the raise to 140 here with qq- or ak. Only a live read/profile can tell you if you're facing one of the exceptions to that rule.

EV of a shove against range
KK+ (326)
QQ+ 140
JJ+ 310

Fun part of poker is that you can correctly evaluate that this villain would donkey 5b with jacks and when he shows up with aces you kick yourself for being an idiot

Fun part about poker is also that we could see this scenario 4 or 5 times, think that he 5bet QQ+, have him show AA all 5 times and still be withing a normal tolerance of running into the top of his range if he was shoving QQ+.

And then we could get there and just forget that we got it in bad repeatedly, and just keep playing bad poker.

Or we could just realize that most villains aren't 5betting (with money behind!) with much less than .5x all KK combos and AA.

Yeah, villains exist that would go weeeeee with JJ, but without evidence or experience that this is one of them, it's a fold obv

Before you fire shots. You should learn few basics of playing deep poker. 200BB deep his QJ is a +EV call (although I will admit, I thought he was calling 30 instead of 40).

The 4 bet is very likely +EV in this game. Since we are likely getting called by alot of worse hands.

But calling off 220BB without a decent idea of what his 5 bet range is. Is awful.

Game seems super soft. Easily find alot better spots. Where you can print money.

Then that one time you fold KK feeling like a genius until they table A3ss.

In all seriousness, I'm not against calling the 3 bet pre keeping the pot small. AP, if I'm ever 4 betting pre, my plan isn't to fold to a 5 bet. Shove.

We will just have to respectfully agree to disagree on this. I'm well aware of the basics of playing deep poker, and calling here with QJo is disastrous.

You're putting another $40 in the pot out of position to a 3bet and two cold callers. QJoff plays awful OOP against 3 opponents who are showing strength. You said you will only continue on the flop if you hit 2 pair+ or OESD, but you only have about a 2% chance of flopping two pair with this hand. Out of position. I can't see how that's possibly "very +EV".

As for the OESD, if you hit this, you're on a draw and a big dog to win the pot, and will bleed money to see the turn and river. Also, the two combos of OESD on the flop are 109 and K10. With a 3bet and two cold callers, both of those flops are squarely within our opponents range to hit a set and have us crushed and drawing very thin (as would have happened in this case, OP would have hit top set with his KK).

Again, we will have to agree to disagree on this.

As for the second and more important hand, I would probably also just call with KK, but as played with the re-raise I'm just going to get it in. I don't think folding is wrong here either, but I go with the shove because OP recently 3bet Villain light and I think the 5bet from the Villain in this hand seems large and he might be wanting a fold here. Of course AA is a good part of his range but I also think QQ and AK are showing up here a decent amount of time.

Results?

Folding KK pre is blahhhhh. But I just can't justify a call here, with these stack sizes. 4 betting is fine. Those that say flat the 3 bet are incorrect. But that huge 5 bet can't be JJ, QQ or AK. It's either the nuts (99.999999% of the time), or it's some random ******ed ego driven bluff. Either way, just fold.

well, since a thread was made about this hand, it is an obvious fold since V has AA.

But assuming that this hand came up, using only the information that we know from the previous hand, it is really close.

yes, V called a 3 bet with QJ off and then called a fishy bet on the flop with 4 opponents, so V definately has some station tendencies and does not understand the relative value of his hand.

But here he is five betting pre. this type of aggression is much different that the station tendencies that he showed in the previous hand.

Is he leveling us because we 3 bet him light in the other hand? or does he have the one hand that he is repping?

ugh. it is hard to tell how far the game has degenerated to where players are overvaluing their hands because everyone has been showing down a bunch of cheese.

I would shove, because I think we are still a little bit underrepped when we four bet so weak. And, I think that he will still call with any pocket pair that is 99+. But his five bet aggression still sets off many alarm bells.