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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

08-08-2017 , 12:53 AM
I think it's funny that I used to read that stuff, get extremely confused, and believe I never had a shot at being good at poker.

Nowadays I read it, get confused, and give up trying to comprehend it because I don't need to.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-08-2017 , 12:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp
I think it's funny that I used to read that stuff, get extremely confused, and believe I never had a shot at being good at poker.

Nowadays I read it, get confused, and give up trying to comprehend it because I don't need to.
lol yeah, but you can use it on the backend for things like game selection, i.e. time of day/day of week/location to get the most out of your time

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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-08-2017 , 04:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains
Hey calm down, just being critical as I think this is interesting and can be improved. Consider a linear fit looks like:

$/hr = a*t + b

If you multiply by t, you get:

$/session = a*t^2 + b*t (or better yet fit sessions to this formula)

Taking derivative you can find the session length optimizing your session earnings, which satisfies:

0 = 2*a*t + b
or
t = -b / 2 /a (a should be negative)



Certainly, there are issues associated to variance but a large enough sample should address it. If you record how well you run on a numeric scale, you should be able to reduce noise in your sampling. Could also record how well you think you played which gives you an extra set of info. Can think of some very interesting applications for this info. Just need to be careful with measuring error of these two.


And for whatever reason, when the post shows up it's had this pic the last 30 times...no clue why.

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This should be an integration not multiplication to get $/session, so you should fit $/hr = 2*a*t + b or just fit the quadratic. Does anyone do stats on their sessions? Most trackers seem to have sd/hr built in.

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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-08-2017 , 06:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains
And for whatever reason, when the post shows up it's had this pic the last 30 times...no clue why.


Tapatalk shows the 1st picture in the last post with a picture in it. There is a setting to turn this off.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-08-2017 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains
This should be an integration not multiplication to get $/session, so you should fit $/hr = 2*a*t + b or just fit the quadratic. Does anyone do stats on their sessions? Most trackers seem to have sd/hr built in.

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What is a, what is t and what is b?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-08-2017 , 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual
What is a, what is t and what is b?
t is time (guessing you used hours)...a & b are whatever fit shows. a represents decrease in winrate per hour played while b is winrate at the start of a session.

This should have been clear, but your session wins are maxed when your hourly winrate goes to zero. Probably more useful then is how much more do you get on your last hours in a session? Does playing 12 vs. 8 hours only add 5% (or whatever it is). You get the idea, you can use to get the most of your time. Could you play more sessions for the same hours and make more (there's transit time/costs ofc too)?

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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-08-2017 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yummyhumanbrains
I keep seeing this pic come up on live low stakes. No offense, but your fifth (or sixth whatever) degree polynomial fit is bad in so many ways.

What does a linear fit or power fit plus intercept (exponential plus intercept applies) look like? R^2 is useless here FYI (it's always gonna be super low unless you fit in a quantifiable measure of run good (gl with that)). What you care about are standard errors of the estimated parameters.

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Giraffe Police itt


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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-08-2017 , 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
Giraffe Police itt


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lol i wanna be the anti-outdonked

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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-22-2017 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
Giraffe Police itt


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2nd this
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-22-2017 , 10:04 PM
Can someone please point me in the direction of some solid 1/2-1/3-2/5 strategy/game theory threads on here. I believe there is one or two solely written by one player as his game develops and he writes a guide of sorts. I am looking for this in particular as well as others that I can use for serious study.

Thank you in advance.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-23-2017 , 12:19 AM
Just check the "best of" thread stickied on the front page.

It'd be a benefit to check the COTW in the micro full ring forum.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-23-2017 , 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer
Just check the "best of" thread stickied on the front page.

It'd be a benefit to check the COTW in the micro full ring forum.
COTW? Thank you.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
08-23-2017 , 09:05 PM
Concept of the Week. OK, that's enough strategy derail in this thread. Back to its main purpose now, please.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-03-2017 , 02:51 PM


Pic shows results, all at $1/$2. In 2017, winrate is $31.72/hr over 504 hours. Overall, Im at $23.94/hr over 790 hrs for a $18,915 total profit.

I think my game format is good, (buyin up to $400, utg straddle allowed for $4 to $10) and $6 taken for rake. But I think I made some large strides this year compared to last. I feel like at the beginning of 2016, I saw maybe 60% of what was going on at a table, and now I think I'm closer to 80%, if that makes any sense. That being said, im sure im on the better side of variance overall so luck is playing its part.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-03-2017 , 09:07 PM
Your photobucket range is too tight.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-03-2017 , 11:20 PM
I tried my best. I give up
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-04-2017 , 12:09 AM
Just don't use photobucket anymore. There are other photo hosting websites. I generally use tinypic and it doesn't even require an account.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-09-2017 , 03:39 PM
Question about winrates in different structure games...

I split my time between 120bb cap and 200bb cap games. In the 120 cap, most players have little clue and there's a good amount of spazztards at the table. At worst, there's 3 other players that have some sort of an idea of what they're doing, but still make huge errors, mostly in bet sizing. The 200bb cap attracts a much higher caliber of player. I'll often be sitting with one or two people near my current skill level, and perhaps a few players I deem better than me. However, there will always be one or two complete marks that don't know how to wield their large stack.

So far, my winrate in the 200bb cap is much higher than the 120, but the sample size is pretty small, maybe 200 hrs in the 120 cap and 300 hrs in the 200bb cap. Would it make more sense to play deeper, but in a tougher pool, or play mid stacked vs bad players?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-09-2017 , 06:38 PM
In general I'd play the mid stacked game with worse players. The deeper game you described doesn't sound like a great game but it's passable. However, look for when the big game looks better and fire away.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-09-2017 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuantumSurfer
Question about winrates in different structure games...

I split my time between 120bb cap and 200bb cap games. In the 120 cap, most players have little clue and there's a good amount of spazztards at the table. At worst, there's 3 other players that have some sort of an idea of what they're doing, but still make huge errors, mostly in bet sizing. The 200bb cap attracts a much higher caliber of player. I'll often be sitting with one or two people near my current skill level, and perhaps a few players I deem better than me. However, there will always be one or two complete marks that don't know how to wield their large stack.

So far, my winrate in the 200bb cap is much higher than the 120, but the sample size is pretty small, maybe 200 hrs in the 120 cap and 300 hrs in the 200bb cap. Would it make more sense to play deeper, but in a tougher pool, or play mid stacked vs bad players?
Play the shorter game.

Also #lolsamplesize when it comes to making decisions
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-10-2017 , 12:39 PM
I'm having a slight downswing right now (5 losing sessions in a row, -$2800 at 2/5) and it is definitely hurting my game. I'm playing scared in spots where I used to just fire, and I'm calling down in spots where my A game folds.

Poker variance is impacted by so many factors, it is ridiculous.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-10-2017 , 01:44 PM
Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-10-2017 , 01:58 PM
In my last 500 hrs, I've had a 1200bb downswing, one 600bb, and am currently down 400bb from my last peak. Still very much trending upwards overall. I'm 6hrs away from my first 1k hrs of live no-limit. Will be making a post with graphs and **** most likely tomorrow after I do my 6hrs today.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-10-2017 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
Especially in a 200 BB cap straddle from anywhere game
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
09-10-2017 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Id consider 5 losing sessions in a row and only being down 2800 as a brag
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Especially in a 200 BB cap straddle from anywhere game
this & this
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