Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > No Limit Hold'em > Live Low-stakes NL

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-19-2012, 12:13 PM   #1926
Pooh-Bah
 
masaraksh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: beantown
Posts: 5,252
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

^ 10 BI losses def happen. not catastrophic.

As for you shot taking.... if you go to a 5/10 with 500 bucks you might as well play table games to run it up. You'll essentially be playing short-stack poker. Which is going to be a lot of folding, squeezing to steal dead money, and getting it in flipping. Essentially you'll be playing tournament poker while the rest deep players play cash. The great thing is that if you run well and the players give you lots of action with junky hands you can win a nice bit and then play deep (and evaluate how the game plays).

I think buying in short when shot taking is a great strategy because it allows you to observe the game and play with a smaller amount of money which is good for your comfort level.
masaraksh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 12:15 PM   #1927
Pooh-Bah
 
masaraksh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: beantown
Posts: 5,252
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
Well the difference between a 6BI downswing and 10 BI "downswing" is substantial.. that's 67% bigger........... and once you get 16 BIs, that just definitely is not all because of the cards..
stop blabbering without giving ANY concrete evidence. did you write a book about variance in poker...? thought so.

I have seen a winning player lose 12k in a 400-2k 5/10 game over the course of 8 hours. he ran real bad.... like unbelievable, but i witnessed it.
masaraksh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 12:23 PM   #1928
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 26,407
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

It doesn't even take running real bad, a few coolers (in an aggro game QQ v KK is a definite cooler) and a few lost flips and its gone.

When you first move up I'd always suggest short stacking the game and nitting it up until you get the feel for it.
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 12:42 PM   #1929
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
10-16BIs?! That's not a downswing man, you should really be re-evaluating your game.

Assuming that 20 BIs are a "base" bankroll, if you have lost 50-75% of it in a given stretch, then it means you have serious leaks...
Doubt it. My WR will make some of you puke.

Let me give you an example of what I went through yesterday.

I was up a BI right off the bat, got money in against an overpair with pair + 1 over + flush draw AI on the flop (49.8 vs 50.2), if won, 3BI up, but instead I lost. That's 4 BI swings right there.

Yes, it's not quite the same as losing 10BI's in 4 sessions, but the point is that if you can't win those flips and your over's are constantly cracked by draws, 10 or even 16BI's are not that hard to lose.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 12:55 PM   #1930
old hand
 
PokerIsFrustrating's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Borgata, Trying Parx (ugh)
Posts: 1,757
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by masaraksh View Post
^ 10 BI losses def happen. not catastrophic.

As for you shot taking.... if you go to a 5/10 with 500 bucks you might as well play table games to run it up. You'll essentially be playing short-stack poker. Which is going to be a lot of folding, squeezing to steal dead money, and getting it in flipping. Essentially you'll be playing tournament poker while the rest deep players play cash. The great thing is that if you run well and the players give you lots of action with junky hands you can win a nice bit and then play deep (and evaluate how the game plays).

I think buying in short when shot taking is a great strategy because it allows you to observe the game and play with a smaller amount of money which is good for your comfort level.
Shortstacks usually suck because no one actually knows how to shortstack properly, but that doesn't mean you can't win. Obviously my win rate would be less than if I full stacked, but it shouldn't be zero.

I played 1.5-2 million shortstack hands on Stars back in the day which I think should help me shortstack, especially if guys are buying in 200bb deep.
PokerIsFrustrating is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 12:56 PM   #1931
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
Doubt it. My WR will make some of you puke.

Let me give you an example of what I went through yesterday.

I was up a BI right off the bat, got money in against an overpair with pair + 1 over + flush draw AI on the flop (49.8 vs 50.2), if won, 3BI up, but instead I lost. That's 4 BI swings right there.

Yes, it's not quite the same as losing 10BI's in 4 sessions, but the point is that if you can't win those flips and your over's are constantly cracked by draws, 10 or even 16BI's are not that hard to lose.
Wow that is such a cooler... can't believe you lost when you were .4% favorite!

How many hours have you played at your current stake (what stake btw) and what is your win rate?
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:00 PM   #1932
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

You're missing the point that it is quite easy to lose several BI's, especially if your game builds around scaring people with stacks.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:03 PM   #1933
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
You're missing the point that it is quite easy to lose several BI's, especially if your game builds around scaring people with stacks.
But you're not taking into consideration the flip side of things- when you do win those flips.

It sounds like when you are winning hands like that, you'll just say "oh I made a good play, I deserved to win that hand, this isn't a 4BI upswing" but when you do lose, you're saying . "it's just part of variance, this is a 4BI downswing".
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:07 PM   #1934
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

What are you talking about? That's exactly the point. We are not talking about upswings and the fact that I come out way ahead obviously, but rather down swings and that they could happen very easily.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:11 PM   #1935
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
What are you talking about? That's exactly the point. We are not talking about upswings and the fact that I come out way ahead obviously, but rather down swings and that they could happen very easily.
You're EV in those hands are breakeven.. which means that if you keep making those moves you shouldn't be winning large sums of money. Of course with fold equity you'll gain some additional equity, but when you do cause the other person to fold, those pots tend to much smaller.

By your logic, since you're saying it is so easy for you to have 10-16 buyin downswings, then you also should be able to win 10-16 buyins in very short periods of time
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:21 PM   #1936
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
By your logic, since you're saying it is so easy for you to have 10-16 buyin downswings, then you also should be able to win 10-16 buyins in very short periods of time
Uhhh yes.

Winning 10 - 16 BIs in 4 sessions is not hard at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
You're EV in those hands are breakeven.. which means that if you keep making those moves you shouldn't be winning large sums of money. Of course with fold equity you'll gain some additional equity, but when you do cause the other person to fold, those pots tend to much smaller.
Except the difference is that I only need to win 1 out of 4 such pots to break even. Combining fold equity and other factors, I don't see how it isn't way +EV.

Plus what are we talking about anyway? Are you derailing your own point by discussing whether my plays are +EV?
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:37 PM   #1937
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
Uhhh yes.

Winning 10 - 16 BIs in 4 sessions is not hard at all.



Except the difference is that I only need to win 1 out of 4 such pots to break even. Combining fold equity and other factors, I don't see how it isn't way +EV.

Plus what are we talking about anyway? Are you derailing your own point by discussing whether my plays are +EV?
lol I don't see how you're calculating your math

Sequence:
1) You lose 1 buy in
2) You lose 1 buy in
3) You lose 1 buy in
4) You win 1 buy in
Net you have lost 2 buy ins..... As implied by the fact "breakeven" you would need 2 out 4 to break even. hahaha.

Again I ask how big is your sample size because winning 10-16 buyins over 4 sessions multiple times is tough. lol.
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:47 PM   #1938
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Umm...

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post

Let me give you an example of what I went through yesterday.

I was up a BI right off the bat, got money in against an overpair with pair + 1 over + flush draw AI on the flop (49.8 vs 50.2), if won, 3BI up, but instead I lost. That's 4 BI swings right there.
Anyway, what's your point in this whole thing anyway? Losing 10 - 16BI's in a streak means I am a horrible player with big leaks?
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:49 PM   #1939
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
Umm...



Anyway, what's your point in this whole thing anyway? Losing 10 - 16BI's in a streak means I am a horrible player with big leaks?
Lol @ you trying to argue that when you get all your money in 50-50 situation you only to need to win 1-4 times to breakeven.

I'll give you a chance to realize what you're doing wrong if you want.

No the point was that 10-16 BI losing streaks are fairly rare, so you might want to look at your game if they keep happening.
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:52 PM   #1940
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
Lol @ you trying to argue that when you get all your money in 50-50 situation you only to need to win 1-4 times to breakeven.

I'll give you a chance to realize what you're doing wrong if you want.

No the point was that 10-16 BI losing streaks are fairly rare, so you might want to look at your game if they keep happening.
Read it in context...I give up.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 01:55 PM   #1941
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I really hope you figured out the mathematics behind 50-50 situations.
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:00 PM   #1942
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: SI, NY
Posts: 14,638
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
Well the difference between a 6BI downswing and 10 BI "downswing" is substantial.. that's 67% bigger........... and once you get 16 BIs, that just definitely is not all because of the cards..
I agree, if you lose 16 buy ins at low stakes live poker, something is wrong. I've only APPROACHED this once in my entire life. If someone is down $3000+ over a period of reasonable time in 1/2 NL, there's a problem.
2OutsNoProb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:01 PM   #1943
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
I really hope you figured out the mathematics behind 50-50 situations.
I really hope you figured out how to read.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:05 PM   #1944
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
I really hope you figured out how to read.
Wow I guess I'm going to have to write this out for you.


You're not taking into account that you will need to control the variables every time you're calculating a break even strategy.


If you think you only need to win 1-4 of time to break even, then in one of trials you must be winning 3 times the amount you lose in every other trial. THIS IS SIMPLE MATH.

Thus if in the first 3 trial you lost 1 Buy-in each, then in the fourth trial you would need to win 3 buy ins. However since you only have 1 BI in front of you (due to you rebuying) you can only win 1 buy in in that fourth trial.

Last edited by chaser3; 07-19-2012 at 02:10 PM.
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:15 PM   #1945
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3 View Post
Wow I guess I'm going to have to write this out for you.


You're not taking into account that you will need to control the variables every time you're calculating a break even strategy.


If you think you only need to win 1-4 of time to break even, then in one of trials you must be winning 3 times the amount you lose in every other trial. THIS IS SIMPLE MATH.

Thus if in the first 3 trial you lost 1 Buy-in each, then in the fourth trial you would need to win 3 buy ins. However since you only have 1 BI in front of you (due to you rebuying) you can only win 1 buy in in that fourth trial.
And I asked you to read it in context of the entire discussion, and I even quoted it.

I didn't think you were that thick, but I guess I will have to break it down for you with maybe smaller words:

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
Doubt it. My WR will make some of you puke.

Let me give you an example of what I went through yesterday.

I was up a BI right off the bat, got money in against an overpair with pair + 1 over + flush draw AI on the flop (49.8 vs 50.2), if won, 3BI up, but instead I lost. That's 4 BI swings right there.

Yes, it's not quite the same as losing 10BI's in 4 sessions, but the point is that if you can't win those flips and your over's are constantly cracked by draws, 10 or even 16BI's are not that hard to lose.
Here, so I started with 1 BI, and I was up 1, 1 + 1 = 2.

Using your breakdown, which I never disputed:

Sequence:
1) You lose 1 buy in
2) You lose 1 buy in
3) You lose 1 buy in
4) You win 3 buy ins.

Get what I meant by reading in context?

So anything else you would like to discuss, or get back to the main point that 4BI swing is quite easy and if that happens few times in short time span = 16 BIs swing.
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:24 PM   #1946
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,200
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime View Post
And I asked you to read it in context of the entire discussion, and I even quoted it.

I didn't think you were that thick, but I guess I will have to break it down for you with maybe smaller words:



Here, so I started with 1 BI, and I was up 1, 1 + 1 = 2.

Using your breakdown, which I never disputed:

Sequence:
1) You lose 1 buy in
2) You lose 1 buy in
3) You lose 1 buy in
4) You win 3 buy ins.

Get what I meant by reading in context?

So anything else you would like to discuss, or get back to the main point that 4BI swing is quite easy and if that happens few times in short time span = 16 BIs swing.
Dude, you're not getting it. You're talking about one specific situation. i was referring to your general strategy which you implied was always pushing draws aggresively so that you end up in a coin flip, and you're not always going to be already up one BI (which means oyu're not controlling for the variables). And even if we did use your example, ok let's say you stack V for a 4BI pot. Since you were both all in, your stack is now 4 BIs. the V rebuys, you do this again, you lose the pot. Now you have 3 BIs. You do this again to another V who has 1 BI stack, you lose. Now you have 2 BIs. You do this again with a third V who has a 1 BI stack, you lose. Now you have 1 BI left. Thus, if you only won 1 out of the 4 hands, then you would be down 1 BI since you got into these 4 flips. But this isn't applicable because you gave you and the V an extra buyin that's irrelevant to figuring out the break even strategy of a long term move.


Second, that 4BI swing is different than a 4 BI downswing. We're talking about 16BI downswings, i.e. you're roll has 16 less BIs than it did before the session(s) began.
chaser3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:28 PM   #1947
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 510
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

.
Ssslipnssslide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:33 PM   #1948
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

No shiet about the coin flip situation with 1 BI. You must think I am an idiot, and I guess it's the norm for some posters to think others are idiots until proven otherwise.

As for the swing and downswing, I have already said that it isn't quite the same, but there's an implication that players play differently when up and when down. I won't dispute such implication because I am a believer of difference in winning and losing psyche, but for the sake of the argument, assuming I play perfectly winning and losing, getting in those spots and lose could easily result in 4 BI downswings.

Example: I lost 1 BI, re-bought another and has just broken even. 2 BI's in front of me, get in a situation with a loose whale who I happened to run into top of his range and lost a 50/50 situation (but I was probably way higher against his range), and now I am down 2 BI's instead of up 2.

Yet another example: I am sitting on 4 BI's (lost 3 and rebuilt it back up to even), and same situation, and now instead of even, I am down 4 again (8 BI swing).

I could go on and on, but assuming I play perfectly, I will not hesitate in getting in such situation and be affected by whether I am up or down, as in not getting in possible flip situation with bunch of dead money in the middle when I am down.

Then it goes into difference in approach. Should I play tighter and forgo coin flip situation when I am running bad?
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:38 PM   #1949
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 510
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***





Uploaded with ImageShack.us

my combined $1/2 & $1/3 play from Jan2012 through mid July2012 screnshots from pokerjournal
Ssslipnssslide is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2012, 02:40 PM   #1950
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,271
Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Uncapped game? $962 average BI and almost 0 rebuy?
AmazonPrime is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off




All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:44 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Copyright 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online