100% DIGRESSION - NOT AN ANSWER

I feel duty bound to post in every thread remotely about bankroll a reminder that bankroll depends on winrate.

I don't think it's that relevant to your post about the tools you use, but I'm going to mention it anyway, because this will digress into a thread about "Speaking of bankroll, how many buy-ins do I need to play such-and-such?" And a lot of bad advice will be posted, because we won't know anyone's winrate.

Use a small notebook. Period.

I believe the tax code says you need to use pen and paper anyways for live play. And if you are truly as computer illiterate as you say, it will be the easiest solution.

your "expenses" should be separate from your view on poker and your statistics as far as win rate etc.......

why don't you keep the two separate and keep your expenses receipts--- at the end of the month you make a deduction from your bankroll for the total sum of the expenses

also, i think cardplayer.com's "stat tracker" is a better site for tracking all this stuff

Theres already a big thread on this that I am sure Kurt will move this to.


Kurt- Maybe you can give the winrate, broll, finance thread the ***Official xxx *** label?

I asked for an explanation of this...

$2/$5

7bb per hr
40hrs per wk
5hrs of Study per wk
-$125 expenses per wk (directly related to poker)

...and ur planning to live off ur poker money with no auxiliary income (and not rent free... home, car, food, phone, utilities, insurance, benefits, etc.)

I highly doubt its "easier" or "quicker" to use. They are simple app's designed to do simple calculations. I like PJ just because its tracks actual time (you press start, pause, and end) and filters some good info. It also allows you to deposit and withdrawl without messing with your rates. I cant tell you what Poker Income can do. I have seen screen shots of it though and honestly PJ looks way nicer. Either way you cant go wrong.

Just real quick... Gonna post a relatively small "live" sample. ~250 hours of play of .25/.50,1/2NL, 1/2SL, 2/5NL, and some random smaller HU's matches.







Will discuss and answer ?'s later.

they should if you have your bankroll completely segregated -- which is optimal.


But most people playing lower stakes live professionally or semi-professionally are, to some extent or another, living out of their bankroll.

If you do this, then you definitely have to take your expenses into consideration when determining the nec. bankroll for your stakes and winrate.

Why all these win rate discussions are flawed for live play:

Since I win X dollars per hour, THEN if I play 40 hrs per week, 52 weeks per year ...
Yes, I understand that X dollars per hour figure was compiled over 80 billionty hands using 92.5 millionty hours, and is statistically significent to 5 and a 1/2 decimal places, with a standard deviation of less than .025 nickles per month.

First, that X dollars per hour figure really doesn't mean squat.

That X was derived from past play and in the past you probably played in prime hours. Drunk Friday and Saturday nights are the best and most profitable times to play. That X dollars per hour is probably sqewed with a lot of the most profitable sessions of the week. Those Friday and Saturday nights are going to be represented more normally when moving to a 40 an hour week play mode.

Second, 40 hrs a week, really?

Being a good player, you probably realize when you aren't on top of your game. Keep your sessions short, stay fresh, etc. Yeah, you can compile a X per hour win rate playing short sessions, paying full attention, staying sharp. 40 hrs a week means A LOT of short sessions, several per day, and maybe a long session or two thrown in. Losing in that 7th hour of that long weekly session is something that probably very rarely occured when you compiled your X. Now it happens every week.

Also, the 40 hours a week means you aren't just playing during wild and crowded weekends. Tuesday at 10am plays a lot different and with a different win rate as Saturday 3am. Even Saturday 10am plays different than Saturday 4pm. And don't forget Thursday 2pm, which if you didn't have to get in 40hrs, you probably would rake up at 1pm. Was your X compiled with an equal amount of time played on each day? Or is it weighted with time playing the wild late night drunk fish?

52 weeks in a year, since when?

It is funny when people think for some reason that since they are now playin da poka they do not need anytime off.
School comes with a spring break, summer vacation, Christmas break, and even the easiest job in the world probably gives you two weeks vacation off. Then factor in 4th of July, and Labor Day, and about 6 to 7 other days off. Of course playin da poka, you will probably want to be 'working' on those days and three day weekends, so you will have to create your own Mondays off. In order to maintain the 52x40 hours per year, those days off and two week vacations will have to be made up by playing even longer on other days. See 40 hrs a week, really - above.

Also, Bob the super fish and Joe dead money are probably quite happy to lose a stack to you a couple of times a week. Start grinding Bob and Joe 40 hours a week, 30 days a month, and you might not be able to find them after a couple of months. Gee, your X dollars per hour was compiled with Bob and Joe donations in it, and now they never come around to the card room anymore.

OH, NOES!!! I HAVE THE ULTIMATE X DOLLARS PER HOUR CALCULATION YOU NON-MATH DONK!

Okay, let's assume you have compiled an hourly win rate that takes into consideration disappearing fish, fish replenishment rates, and properly weights all types of game conditions, game times, and even accounts for the time you don't feel good and play lousy because 'you gotta get your hours in'. The ultimate smoothed deviation proof dollar per hour win rate.

Still no good. The games aren't as juicy now as they were. The economy stinks right now. People aren't rich with home-price inflated net worths. A lot of people don't have jobs that they had a year ago. They just aren't throwing money into games like they used too.

So unless your dollar per hour win rate also accounts for a 30 year business cycle (or maybe adjusts itself to GDP and T-Bill Interest rates) it's going to be further and further off the mark when you try to use it to project the future.

Did you have a better idea?

For live play if you keep good records you can come up with a good monthly win number.

Then you can say things like this:
If I play about the same amount of time this month as last month I will win X.

Or If I play a little Y hours more/less this month as last month I will win X +/- y% (where Y is a reasonable number).

Of course your monthly win number is constantly adjusted by:
Am I on a heater? If you can't remember the last big suck out or huge bad beat you got hit with, or you think DA POKA IZ EZ, I always hit my draws ...
You are on a heater, your monthly win number needs a big discounting.

And you keep things like the following in the back of your head as the next month comes along:
Am I practicing my good table selection like always?
Are the same fish and big donators still showing up?
Am I playing in good spirits, good mood, keeping the same good game as last month?
ETC, etc.

One would surmise that this is not ur first account on 2p2 as for someone that has been a member for about a week u sure know a lot about everything.

Winrates are real, 40 hour work weeks are real (some of us are working a lot more) and a big bankroll for a 'potential' professional is a must (anything else is just gambling.)

Please show me where I said winrates were not real.
Or show me where I said 40hour work weeks are not real.
Or where I said a big bankroll is NOT a must?

In fact, my post discusses the REALITY of winrates and what they can REALISTICALLY be used for.
IT also discusses the REALITY of 40 hour work weeks, and why you won't REALISTICALLY work 52 of them a year.

Oh and a 'potential' professional with a big bankroll is STILL gambling.

I disagree, the 'marks' I play everyday are the ones that are 'gambling.' Poker might be classified as gambling but it's no coincidence that, over an extended period of time, I make money while 95% of cardroom patrons don't.

The fact that you make money, over an extended period of time, or over a short period of time, or the fact that others do not make money, is irrelevant.

Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods. Typically, the outcome of the wager is evident within a short period.

There is a reason that Poker is classified as gambling. Because it is. Unless you are using marked cards or something, you are wagering on an uncertain outcome. The fact that you are paid more on favorable outcomes, and lose less on unfavorable outcomes (ie: the odds are in your favor), doesn't mean it is still not gambling. Or that fact that others are not so good at determining these favorable wagers, doesn't mean you aren't gambling. They are just gambling more poorly than you.

A casino has every game with the odds stacked in their favor. In even the realitively short run, not one single table or game in the casino ever loses money ... But that casino is GAMBLING, they are not baking bread, or picking flowers.

I suggest you find some fool in BBV or something to stalk in the future.