Guy who used to be my friend owed me $300 (security deposit) and after 3 months of not getting my money I texted him "You ain't no Lanister, bro." Not sure if he watches the show...

If I were him, I'll be like "damn right! We do not sow."

I'm looking for some feedback on my earnings over the last 10 months and advice on what my expectations should be for them over the remainder of this year and into next year.

Up until August 2011, I was a serious recreational player (meaning I was a bit of a fish at some tables, due to a lack of experience, knowledge of strategy and some tilt issues). After experiencing a nasty downswing in June and July of 15BIs in 2011, which brought me to a little under break-even for the year, I decided to seriously assess my financial viability as a player .

It became clear that if I wanted to be a long-term winner, I needed to improve my game in respect of some fundamentals, specifically the areas of strategy and execution. I also realized that I needed a proper bankroll for someone of my relative inexperience, who had a few tilt issues.

So, I got a decent roll together, 60 BI for 2/5, and set to work. Since then I have played 1335 hours (80% at 2/5, the remaining 20% mostly at 2/3, a little shot-taking at 5/10).

Some key statistics:

• Win rate $21.98 per hour
• Average/Session $80.83
• Standard Deviation: $788.58/Session
• Winning Sessions: 50.08%

I should add that I buy-in for maximum ($500 at 2/5, $300 at 2/3, $1500 at 5/10) and chip-up when my stack drops below 10% of maximum.

Where I play we also have a high-rake structure that includes a $10 time charge at 2/5, plus rake of 10% on every pot, which is capped at $10. So, on average, I'm giving between 3-4 bb per hour to the Casino. Fortunately, there are no tips allowed to dealers and players don't have to pay tax to the government on their winnings.

This 10 month period has also included a major downswing. In the month of January I lost 66.7% of sessions and nearly 20 BIs! This was my first losing month since I started playing semi-professionally in July 2011. May 2012 has been my second worst month with an hourly $10.83 (a key reason for this post). So, 8 out of 10 months I have had an hourly of between $30 and $40.

I should also mention that I still work a part-time job and am only dependent on poker for 30% of my income.

My questions are:

• What can I expect my optimum hourly rate to be? Is it between $30 and $40 (6-8bb) or is $20-$30 closer to the mark (4-6bb)?
  
• How should I treat my two major downswings, of 15BI and 20BI, respectively, since it is unusual for a winning player to experience downswings of this magnitude, six months apart?
  
• Do these downswings indicate that I have tilt issues which I can never completely overcome, especially as I have researched tilt a decent amount (by reading Tommy Angelo, Jared Tendler, Alan Schoonmaker as well as Taylor and Hilger)?
  
• How damaging is the rake/time-charge structure where I play, especially as there is not a regular 5/10 game (which I'm not even certain I can beat at the moment)?

Thanks for taking the time to read this long post.

That rake is gruesome. Idk how its beatable. Recognizing tilt should be your main focus. You have to make sure your growing as a player.

Its hard to even talk about winrates with a ****ed up structure like that. You really need to break down the math of regular rake to your rake. Then you will have your answer.

Yep, the rake is very steep (I've actually written to a state-gaming regulation authority about it). But, the game is very soft at times, and the very best pros were in the $40-50 range (guys, to be honest, with an edge over me). In the USA (I'm playing in Australia), I figure you pay 2bb per hour at 2/5 with rake and tips. But what about tax? Does that mean you're effectively giving another 2bb to the government? In which case, USA rake is nearly equivalent to ours (4bb), although tax is definitely a variable that's harder to quantify.

Tilt is definitely a focus, but it's frustrating when I'm too tilted to play (like at the moment). I'm grinding 140-150 hours a month---but wondering whether it's always going to be like this. If I could raise my hourly into the mid $30s, then I could play less. Of course, if I tilted less, I'd be less stressed too. But easier said than done

But maybe with the rake structure, I just have to play elsewhere.

Bartenders make the same rate in australia. If you want to make your winrate higher, you can do that. Nobody here is going to do that, add 5 hours a week to pure studying, buy a pen and pad. Start taking notes specifically from twoplustwo. Study them quickly when you wake up and before you go to bed.

Great thread. I've read a good number of the posts.

Without getting into a long story about life crucmstances, I have $4k in my BR, have been playing low stakes HU online for years at high volume.

My wife got a great job in N.O., we're moving, and now I might have to play live because US-facing sites might not allow play there (waiting on an answer from them).

Because of moving expenses and what not, my BR will be down $2k. I'm solid and have millions of hands of FR, 6M, and HU (mostly HU). And I've played live a few times, so I have a reasonable feel for the dynamics and multiplayer pots.

Question: given my background, is my $2k BR laughable for 1/2 (the smallest game at Harrahs)? Any advice?

You're fine.

I would recommend avoiding a few coin flip situation until you get comfortable.

Yep, just back off the high varience small +ev spots.

Hey DrTJO!

From what I've heard the best $2/5 reg at the crown makes $54/hr. Anything more than 10BB/hr is exceptional imo..

After bragging about running hot in this thread, I am compelled to post that I may never win again.

Jinxed.

Update: I now have $1600 to my name. I need a poker fix, bad. I am job searching, hopefully will find a job. I'd say there's roughly a 80% chance I'll find one starting soon.

Is $1600 enough to play $1/2 with a $100 buying? I know the standard min bankroll size for $1/2 with $200 buying in $4000. But by cutting the buyin, and hence risk, in half, does min bankroll size decrease by half as well?

Yes and no. Answer is dependent on your ability.

I have seen players that lose 4-5 BIs all the time. Do that 3x and you're broke.

I have hundreds of hours of live play experience at these stakes. Marginal winner (~$10/hour). However, the room I play at is known to be tough...and for the second half of my sample size, my win rate was more like $18/hour.

Isn't shortstacking a higher variance play, thus even greater chance of going busto? I could be out to lunch, but I think it would be since we're just looking for spots to get the chips in preflop / flop, so a lottsa flipping situations or either WA or WB (pair over pair). Whereas I'd think playing deeper we can just patiently wait for our moments to get chips in when we are a huge favourite (less variance). No?

$1600 isn't enough to be your bankroll AND life roll, which is what it sounds like you'd be using the money for. Doesn't matter what you buy in for imo. Also, the fact that you "need a poker fix, bad" is a sign of a mental game problem that will cause you trouble down the road.

I don't think it's any higher or lower variance. The only difference is I will almost never be able to play suited connectors or speculative hands. I will stick to big pairs and AK, and A10o+ or KJo+ in the right situations.

I play an extremely high variance game, meaning I always look for +EV spots. If I'm getting 2:1 on a huge all-in bet and I have 36% equity, I will always call and I'm totally indifferent to the result because I know over time, I'll win a couple of bucks on average doing the play.

So I'll be playing high variance whether shortstacked or deepstacked...

I guess my question comes down simply to this: Is it OK logic to say, "since I will buy in for half the normal amount, half of a normal bankroll is sufficient"? I plan to bring only $100 in my pocket and leave if I lose.

Shortstacking is higher variance in terms of buy-ins but not in terms of absolute dollars. Variance is largely function of the amount you can lose/win at any one time.

If maximizing winrate is the main concern, play with deepest stack possible. If going busto is the main concern, shortstacking is where it's at. Theoretically, there is a minimum threshold that must be met to still be profitable since we have to deal with rake + paying blinds (for example, we can't short stack for $20 and expect to win) but $100 is more than enough to still have a positive winrate.

qft

The Star, Sydney Australia

Sessions
Count: 85
Profit $14,724
Hourly Profit: $42.98/hr
Std Dev: $248.4/hr
Total Time: 342.5hr
Winning Sessions: 57/85
74 @ $1/2
5 @ $3/3
6 @ $5/5

Yes, the best would be around $50 hr, which, IMO, is crushing. The player I know who's been around this mark, consistently, for a number of years, is a very strong player. What sets the "crushing" type apart from "grinders" like myself is their ability to beat all the regulars as well as the fish; in other words, these guys aren't just picking the low hanging fruit (although they do excel at that part of their game, too).

I know guys who've done 100K on 2/5 over a 12 month period. But we're talking 2-3 years ago, when the daytime games were quite juicy. I can't really see this happening at the moment. It's interesting that a number of winning regs have moved interstate and O/S in the last few months.

Anyhow, I'm just trying to push through to a 6-8bb win rate by constantly plugging leaks (many of which are still tilt-related) as well as making subtle adjustments to my playing style.

What's 2/5 game like where you play? Is the rake structure better than Crown's? What sort of hourly you hoping to achieve? From the hand analysis posts of yours I've read, it sounds like you've got more than a decent handle on your room

How deep are these games in discussion? If they're not on average 100bb stack, it would be awfully hard, especially with the rake structure.

These 2/5 games are $200-500 Buy-In. At a guess, I would say 80% of players would start with 100bb.

When I see a reg-infested game with no players more than 200bb deep, I often don't play; during weekdays there will only be a few 2/5 tables running, so it's tough to transfer.

Late-night and weekend games can still be juicy. Often, semi-regulars will play until they drop with 400-600bb stacks---these games often become loose preflop and can be very profitable. I mean, I had a guy call my 4bet preflop for a 100BB with 104o the other day, just because he had a 5k stack, and wanted to bust my balls. So, these semi-regs don't lock-up when on heaters, which is great. And they often return, a number of days after, expecting the same "positive" variance; traditionally, this is the sort of action that made 2/5 at Crown very beatable, irrespective of the rake.

But, overall, these "deep" games are more late-night than day, so that's why I believe many decent regulars are playing elsewhere. Previously, non-regulars would bring 3-4 BIs to a 2/5 during the daytime; now it's more like they're only willing to spew 1-2, so there's less money around.

Sometimes, I wonder whether my goal of a 6-8bb win-rate is realistic

Anytime anyone can get up to 1000bb in a 100bb capped game means the game is really juicy.

Ya, 10bb/hr is possible, but probably not for a full time player that grinds daily. Although it is entirely plausible to hit 20BI or so in winning a month by putting in volume.