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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.67%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 8.00%
5-7.5
7 9.33%
7.5-10
15 20.00%
10+
25 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
17 22.67%

01-25-2016 , 10:02 PM
Accomplished a crazy one on the Poker Bucket List last night

[x] - Win a $2500 pot with Q high
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-25-2016 , 10:23 PM
But how much did you lose?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-25-2016 , 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Accomplished a crazy one on the Poker Bucket List last night

[x] - Win a $2500 pot with Q high
Were you all on with Queen high monster draw versus a weaker draw? Or did you mske a big hero call with Queen high on river?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-26-2016 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai
Were you all on with Queen high monster draw versus a weaker draw? Or did you mske a big hero call with Queen high on river?
I was on a draw. Villain had been straddling and raising every hand since I sat down (about 2-3 orbits) and no one was playing back at him. I also previously 3! bluffed his check raise on the flop with A5o and showed when he folded.

So he straddled in MP, I called OTB with QJo, BB called, V raised straddle to $50, I called and BB folded ($1250 effective). Flop 983r he leads $75, I call. Turn is a brick, he bets $175, I raise to $550, he shoves for whatever is left, like $575 on top and I snap call. River is a 3 and he mucks. Whole table is sitting their speechless and stunned. Guy proceeds to dump his remaining $1500 in short order.

Spewy and lucky? Perhaps. Ill advised? Most likely, but I was tired of the guy playing table captain with ATC and figured all my outs were live if he was even ahead.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-26-2016 , 12:21 AM
But did v try to fish his K out of the muck tho?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-26-2016 , 12:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
But did v try to fish his K out of the muck tho?
That would be precious!
Reminds me of a situation where a non-regular at a poker room bet on the river & a regular [friends with the dealer] folded his hand face down ever so slightly across the betting line, which is not a 'muck line.' The visitor announced "two pair" because there was a 3rd player who was all-in ott.

The dealer then, after seeing the visitors hand & that she is holding a small pair & there is a pair on the board, announces "Two pair. Kings [that were on the board] & fours." and then looks at his friend. The dealer has not touched his friends cards, but starts to reach for them when the player realizes he has the best hand.

He quickly snaps his hand up & says call. Well the floor is called over & the regular is awarded the pot because he never announced fold & everything went down quickly - Regular lays his hand down > visitor announces 2 pair > dealer announces what the 2 pair are > regular snatches up his hand b4 dealer has his cards. All in less than 10-15 seconds.

Now, if this situation had been the reverse & it was the dealer's friend who bet the river & the visitor laid her hand down, he would have quickly snatched it up.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-26-2016 , 01:19 AM
Lame.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-26-2016 , 01:29 AM
Do you think you overestimated your FE on the turn? Seems like calling the turn with a plan to maybe bluff the river would be better.

nh
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-26-2016 , 01:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suited fours
Do you think you overestimated your FE on the turn? Seems like calling the turn with a plan to maybe bluff the river would be better.

nh
I probably overestimated my FE, but V also overestimated his FE. The whole hand was just a massive level going back to the A5o 3! bluff I showed.

I was also kind of drunk (so was villain, a mid 20's guy like myself) which probably led to this thing spiraling out of control. My 2016 goal is basically avoiding these spots but well ... **** happens

Call turn and reassess river was probably the "right" play, but I had no idea how big he would bomb it. Bluff shoving the river if I thought he was light is probably the best move in hindsight.
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01-26-2016 , 02:00 AM
BB&V is probably that way --->, though I have never been there.
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01-26-2016 , 01:41 PM
You play well
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-26-2016 , 02:37 PM
Not sure if serious.

So raise more than half of your stack with 2 over and gutter ON TURN knowing you have to call it off if V shoves, just because you're tired of being pushed around?
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01-26-2016 , 03:00 PM
Guys, not strat thread or BBV. If not related to the subject, please move along.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-27-2016 , 06:45 PM
Holy ****ing ****.

Ever since I posted here about my hot streak, I haven't had a single winning session.

Mother****ing live doomswitched/jinxed.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 01:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardball47
Holy ****ing ****.

Ever since I posted here about my hot streak, I haven't had a single winning session.

Mother****ing live doomswitched/jinxed.
Let that be a lesson to all who might consider using this thread in the future for purposes other than what it is intended to be used for!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardball47
I don't keep track of win rates personally, only whether or not more money comes in than goes out.

Since the start of the new year, I've played 21/23 days and have won 19/21 days for a minimum of $200 at 1/2. At least twice a week for three weeks now I've had cash outs for $1k+. If this keeps up, I'll be on my way to winning the WSOP ME 2016.

For me, "heater" is putting it lightly. I'm running God mode cheat codes right now - wallhacks, aimbots, maphack, the works. Just tonight I flopped a set of fives, went running queens for fives full. Two other guys had the case queens paid off all-in bets OTR. All in the first hour of playing.

Printing money.

Waiting to get my ass kicked due to hubris.
Now that really freakin' sux! To run so good & then get bit in the buttocks for posting results over a small [150hrs?] sample size. May the moon pull the tide back the other way for you asap!

If everyone thinks the 'jinx' is in - Garick just may get his wish!

Although I don't know that posting a ~150 hour 'heater' in this thread is all that much of a 'foul,' or if it even is one....I would like to hear from those who hit a hard foul ball [with their off-topic posts] & cif they're runnin' bad......
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 09:14 PM
Hi. I'm relatively new to 2+2 (which if you say it fast is trip twos😂&#128514

Anyway, I've played poker all my life, but am finally trying to get organized. I wrote my own little poker session tracker, and will start to honestly keep records. Right now, even though I'm pretty certain I'm up at my local poker club, I can only remember my last 3 visits. So I'm 15hr in, with one win of about $350 and 2 losing sessions, where I lost 3 total buy-in. I'm down $40 in 15hr of play.

Yay me.

I have two questions, and they may have been answered, and I'm sorry if they have, but I can't read 896 pages of posts. So...
1. Regarding live play sample size in relation to on-line play. I think its wrong to say someone's 75hr of live play over 2months is too small a sample size because an on-line player could have 10x the number of hands played over the same timeframe. Everyone who is playing live has the same conatraints; one table, fewer hours, have to go somewhere to play. Isn't it more like, your live play is this, and your on-line play is something else? I just think its unfair to say live play sample sizes are too small to be statsically relevant.

2. If $1/2 nl is the smallest live play game outside your buddy's garage, how does bankroll matter? If you have one or two buy-ins, and want to play, you go play. I'm dealing with this now. I have the family and mortgage and job. I can't wait till I have an envelope stuffed with $4k to go play. Obviously, I run into finding myself playing tight because i only have $300 to toss around, but if I waited until I had more (the wife or child would spend it...let this be a lesson to all of you...)I would miss out on the experience of playing and getting better. I keep myself at this limit, and will not play higher or deeper until I do get that envelope stuffed with cash. I'm certain i will if I keep reading the posts here.

Thanks for reading and sharing your game theory. 👍👍👍
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 09:25 PM
If this was 1999, no one would tell you that 200 hours is a small sample size.

Internet poker basically provided statistical proof that 200 hours is a meaningless sample size.

It's not an argument of relative vs absolute.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 09:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockville9
Hi. I'm relatively new to 2+2 (which if you say it fast is trip twos😂&#128514

Anyway, I've played poker all my life, but am finally trying to get organized. I wrote my own little poker session tracker, and will start to honestly keep records. Right now, even though I'm pretty certain I'm up at my local poker club, I can only remember my last 3 visits. So I'm 15hr in, with one win of about $350 and 2 losing sessions, where I lost 3 total buy-in. I'm down $40 in 15hr of play.

Yay me.

I have two questions, and they may have been answered, and I'm sorry if they have, but I can't read 896 pages of posts. So...
1. Regarding live play sample size in relation to on-line play. I think its wrong to say someone's 75hr of live play over 2months is too small a sample size because an on-line player could have 10x the number of hands played over the same timeframe. Everyone who is playing live has the same conatraints; one table, fewer hours, have to go somewhere to play. Isn't it more like, your live play is this, and your on-line play is something else? I just think its unfair to say live play sample sizes are too small to be statsically relevant.

2. If $1/2 nl is the smallest live play game outside your buddy's garage, how does bankroll matter? If you have one or two buy-ins, and want to play, you go play. I'm dealing with this now. I have the family and mortgage and job. I can't wait till I have an envelope stuffed with $4k to go play. Obviously, I run into finding myself playing tight because i only have $300 to toss around, but if I waited until I had more (the wife or child would spend it...let this be a lesson to all of you...)I would miss out on the experience of playing and getting better. I keep myself at this limit, and will not play higher or deeper until I do get that envelope stuffed with cash. I'm certain i will if I keep reading the posts here.

Thanks for reading and sharing your game theory. 👍👍👍
So now 75 hrs is a meaningful sample. No. Why not 50 or 25 or 10.

If you can't understand how insignificant 75 hours is you either have no idea what you are talking about or you are a noob on a heater trying to convince ur self you are better than you really are
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 09:37 PM
For a second I thought I wrote that.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 09:43 PM
Live sample sizes are generally too small to be statistically relevant. 100 or 200 hours is noise. 500-1000 is starting to get close to something meaningful, but then any *larger* sample sizes will takes so long to collect that the underlying conditions will have changed and the data shouldn't be lumped together anyway. It's just math.

I've looked at my full 4000 hours on a 100 hour window basis and the results are all over the place. (Confirming what the math already tells us.)

I do agree with you about just playing if you've got $500 handy. If it works out it works out, if you go bust you have to hit the books and wait a while to get back in the game. The strict BR requirements are for when you don't have any way to replenish if you go bust.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 09:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
For a second I thought I wrote that.
I'm much more gentle and loving
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 09:46 PM
BR requirement is not a requirement, but rather a suggestion.

It's not like a table minimum requirement you need in order to sit down.
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01-28-2016 , 10:13 PM
v well put
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01-28-2016 , 10:41 PM
isn't all this talk about #hours needed for WR to be relevant.. isn't it all arbitrary? don't we need a standard deviation along with the observed WR and the volume/time in order to come up with a confidence interval?

i see all these posts comparing live to online as far as "relevant" number of hands.. ("dude.. 500 hours is only 15,000 hands.. that's a slow week for online, brah").. but WR:STD is a lot higher for live, isnt' it? and so, the volume to be "relevant" will be much less for live than online, right?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
01-28-2016 , 10:52 PM
That's true, and I think that bip! has posted some estimates about it.

I think both WR *and* SD should be higher live, so I don't think it collapses as much as you think.

I can tell from my own data that 100 hours is garbage and 500 hours shows what look like the start of meaningful trends.
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