Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
You don't seem to understand the concept of risk of ruin. If you have no capital, you can't play poker and you can't win money, so your winrate is meaningless. And I'll try to make this simple for you:
In my example, queens are roughly a 53/47 favorite against AK, so your call will net you around +$60. However, it's a high variance call because you are risking $1000 to win $60.
That's not the way it works. You are not risking 1k to win $60.
If you are going to work with percentages, then you have to look at 100 instances of the same scenario & assume variance evens out over 100 hands, which is laughable. But anyways.
53 times you'll win 1k = $53,000 & 47 times you'll lose 1k =$47,000, so you net $6000.00.
Now, if your average all-in hand preflop takes 2 minutes to complete [from the time of the deal, to the winner being shoved the pot & the next hand dealt out], you will complete those 100 hands in 3hrs & 20 minutes, or ~3.3 hours.
$6000/3.3hrs = $1818.18 per hour win rate for those 100 hands.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
You could easily lose 3 or 4 of these flips in a row.
Laughable.
You could lose 12 in a row.
I believe it was the 2nd time Johnny Chan won the WSOP Main Event, that when it was down to 2 tables, he won 12 all-in coin-flips in a row. Either him or his opponent had a PP & the other AK. Chan won all 12.
If you confirm this on the internet, please give me the link, because I have searched to no avail. But I swear I remember hearing it on t.v. during a poker show.
That is why he had such a huge chip lead going into the final table.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
So even though you are making the correct play by calling from an EV standpoint you are making a serious error from a risk of ruin standpoint if your bankroll is only $2000.
When mine was only 2k, I wouldn't even consider calling 1k with QQ, even if my opponent showed me AKo. I played every hand as if my life depended on it.
It severely hampers your win rate. Today I would snap call despite how bad I'd been running.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
Obviously, as I stated before if you can replenish your bankroll then your risk of ruin is essentially zero, so you can go ahead and maximize your winrate. But for the average joe, his risk of ruin is not zero. And I'm not sure why you think trying to avoid the risk of ruin makes someone an awful play poker player.
I will give you an example, however, I'm sure you're going to think I'm making this up, because I'm going to tell you it happened yesterday.
Flop comes K
J
6
A deep pocketed retiree, who loves to gamble bets ~1/3rd the pot. The 2nd player flats. I have A
A
I 'pot it.' ~$80. Deep Pockets, who I've played with for over a decade in home games & who has me pegged as a NIT, thinks he can blow me off of my hand & nervously announces all-in & then pushes all $800 of his chips into the center.
The 2nd player tanks. He wants a chip count, because he has ~$750 in front of him. [turns out he had started with $200] and finally folds. I collect my ~$250 and call.
Dealer runs them out & Deep Pocket turns over his KTo that didn't improve.
2nd player had mucked a set of 6s! Claims he had worked too hard to build up that $500+ profit to risk it on one hand. He felt strongly that it had to be set over set.
Now I don't blame him. If I had been him, back when my roll was thin & knowing Deep Pockets as I do, I would have already cashed out, waited an hour & bought back in for $300.00. That way, I avoid situations like the one he found himself in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmuff
As for being properly rolled for their game, most people aren't. A 10 BB/100 ($10/hr in 2/3) winner with a standard deviation of 100 needs a bankroll of 1498 BB to reduce his risk of ruin to 5%. And most people aren't anywhere close to being 10 BB/100 winners, despite some of the winrates being posted in here.
You're saying 3k is a sufficient bankroll for 1/2. I do not believe that. For me, personally, to be able to play poker the way it's suppose to be played, I keep my bankroll over 9k. I know a guy who is a grinder in a 2/5 game, rarely suffers a really hard hit, averages 1k profit per week & has only a 6k bankroll. I couldn't do it.......too much stress.
He's a pro at selectively pickin' his spots.