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Old 05-10-2010, 04:10 PM   #101
EightFoldPath
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by jt0 View Post
Did you have a better idea?
For live play if you keep good records you can come up with a good monthly win number.

Then you can say things like this:
If I play about the same amount of time this month as last month I will win X.

Or If I play a little Y hours more/less this month as last month I will win X +/- y% (where Y is a reasonable number).

Of course your monthly win number is constantly adjusted by:
Am I on a heater? If you can't remember the last big suck out or huge bad beat you got hit with, or you think DA POKA IZ EZ, I always hit my draws ...
You are on a heater, your monthly win number needs a big discounting.

And you keep things like the following in the back of your head as the next month comes along:
Am I practicing my good table selection like always?
Are the same fish and big donators still showing up?
Am I playing in good spirits, good mood, keeping the same good game as last month?
ETC, etc.
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Old 05-10-2010, 04:25 PM   #102
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One would surmise that this is not ur first account on 2p2 as for someone that has been a member for about a week u sure know a lot about everything.

Winrates are real, 40 hour work weeks are real (some of us are working a lot more) and a big bankroll for a 'potential' professional is a must (anything else is just gambling.)

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Old 05-10-2010, 04:42 PM   #103
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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One would surmise that this is not ur first account on 2p2 as for someone that has been a member for about a week u sure know a lot about everything.

Winrates are real, 40 hour work weeks are real (some of us are working a lot more) and a big bankroll for a 'potential' professional is a must (anything else is just gambling.)
Please show me where I said winrates were not real.
Or show me where I said 40hour work weeks are not real.
Or where I said a big bankroll is NOT a must?

In fact, my post discusses the REALITY of winrates and what they can REALISTICALLY be used for.
IT also discusses the REALITY of 40 hour work weeks, and why you won't REALISTICALLY work 52 of them a year.

Oh and a 'potential' professional with a big bankroll is STILL gambling.
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:16 PM   #104
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Originally Posted by EightFoldPath View Post
Oh and a 'potential' professional with a big bankroll is STILL gambling.
I disagree, the 'marks' I play everyday are the ones that are 'gambling.' Poker might be classified as gambling but it's no coincidence that, over an extended period of time, I make money while 95% of cardroom patrons don't.
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:24 PM   #105
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I disagree, the 'marks' I play everyday are the ones that are 'gambling.' Poker might be classified as gambling but it's no coincidence that, over an extended period of time, I make money while 95% of cardroom patrons don't.
The fact that you make money, over an extended period of time, or over a short period of time, or the fact that others do not make money, is irrelevant.

Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods. Typically, the outcome of the wager is evident within a short period.

There is a reason that Poker is classified as gambling. Because it is. Unless you are using marked cards or something, you are wagering on an uncertain outcome. The fact that you are paid more on favorable outcomes, and lose less on unfavorable outcomes (ie: the odds are in your favor), doesn't mean it is still not gambling. Or that fact that others are not so good at determining these favorable wagers, doesn't mean you aren't gambling. They are just gambling more poorly than you.

A casino has every game with the odds stacked in their favor. In even the realitively short run, not one single table or game in the casino ever loses money ... But that casino is GAMBLING, they are not baking bread, or picking flowers.

I suggest you find some fool in BBV or something to stalk in the future.
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:49 PM   #106
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Re: Bankroll Management For The Live Low Stakes Player

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they should if you have your bankroll completely segregated -- which is optimal.


But most people playing lower stakes live professionally or semi-professionally are, to some extent or another, living out of their bankroll.



If you do this, then you definitely have to take your expenses into consideration when determining the nec. bankroll for your stakes and winrate.
Only reason I want to take my expenses into account is to simply be honest with myself. Yea if I buyin for $100 and cash out for $500, I made $400. But if I got gas, food, and some drinks and paid out of my pocket (and not from my chip stack which I think should be taken into account, even w/e you tip the dealers) I really didn't make $400, I won $400, and only made $400-expenses. Imo, its not just a matter of how much you win or make, but how much you KEEP. I think monitoring your expenses (on top of your losses) gives you a more realistic and raw number. Just wanted to get some feedback on it, and the best way to keep track of it. I'm probably gonna make a spreadsheet to keep track of everything and just fill in the blanks after every game. A sheet for buy ins, cash outs, profits, hours, game type, etc for cash and tournaments and a separate sheet for expenses.

I am trying to keep my poker bankroll separate from what I make at my day job, eventually I know I'll end up "withdrawing" something for personal expenses or w/e. But like a business expense, if I was on a business trip and went out to dinner with client or co worker or meeting w/e, that dinner is a write off and an expense - the same as eating at the casino right? Whether I'm a pro or casual player?

MOD: Thanks for moving my post, a lot more info and action in here!
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Old 05-10-2010, 05:50 PM   #107
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm not stalking u (don't flatter urself.) U'll disappear in another 70 or 80 posts with all ur deep wisdom. It's attitudes like urs that helped support the 'Safe Ports' poker legislation. Poker is a 'skill' game and that's why cardrooms are legal in California. Ur actually grouping table games with poker? Along with sports betting, poker is the only other advantage game in the casino. The house holds no 'edge,' they merely take a percentage of each transaction. I'm not going to argue that poker is not 'technically' gambling but for me it isn't. Just like a stock trader makes percentage plays, so do I, yet he isn't considered a 'gambler.'

Anyway, good luck, god bless, I'll never comment on another post of urs.

Unrelated:

What was ur $4/$8 LHE winrate again?
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:02 PM   #108
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When I track my winrate(s) I have two categories:

Table Winrate: That only includes my time spent at the table (obv.)

Actual Winrate: It includes drive time, waiting time, study time, etc. and my poker related expenses are deleted from that number as well (fuel being the biggest one)
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:07 PM   #109
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Do you use spreadsheets to keep track of this info or something similar to pokercharts.com? I didn't even think about calculating drive time/waiting time/study time etc... When I mark my hours played, its usually from when I sat at the table to when I cashed out, which would included bathroom/smoke/food breaks etc - sometimes 5-10 mins per hour.
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:13 PM   #110
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by EightFoldPath View Post
For live play if you keep good records you can come up with a good monthly win number.
It seems to be that whether you calculate your profit on a hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly basis that it is still a "win rate." We're splitting hairs here. BB/hr is just a measurement like miles per gallon is a measure of fuel economy. The reason that BB/hr is used is explained rather well in The Theory of Poker.

Just so you know where I'm coming from here: I personally haven't done the math on my play to be able to claim any kind of BB/hr win rate or figured my std dev. I'm just happy knowing I'm a winning player because I book more winning sessions than losing ones and watch my BR steadily increase. I've even always hated having to do profit projections in the various businesses I've owned.

Some people prefer to closely measure their performance based on metrics that they can compare to other players. They are not wrong for doing so.
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:16 PM   #111
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If u look earlier in this thread I posted a link to a thread that began in uNL. In it I posted the 'sheets' I fill out after every session I play, every time I study or do bookkeeping and whenever I make a withdrawal from my poker profits. I should have someone build me a spreadsheet (as I'm Excel challenged) but I have been doing it this way for quite awhile. I could build my own database but I would like one with a good GUI. A lot of these apps look pretty impressive though (I just haven't really delved into them.)

Last edited by KneedUrDough; 05-10-2010 at 06:28 PM.
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:32 PM   #112
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just read that thread KneedUrDough. Glad to see I'm not only one still keeping manual records. Scary how similar ours are. I haven't tracked tips before(Uh,duh/me) Are you keeping a running total or just estimating post session?
Also,I break down my sessions into time intervals. First 2 hours=early,next 2-3 hrs=mid,last 2-?=late. It gives me a better idea of when I typically have most sucess,playing my best,and when I should cut short or extend a session.
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Old 05-10-2010, 07:00 PM   #113
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That's a good idea (time intervals.) I often comment on that very thing when I summarize my session but that's not the same thing as tracking.

The 'tips' are easy for me to track because I tip so little. I know this sounds like a scumbag thing to do but I play a lot of hours, tips add up and where I play most of my poker the dealers pool their tips (across both casinos and all the games.) I tend to write down who deserves a tip, not because I won money but because of how they deal (speed being most important) and I leave small gifts with security for them (gas cards, gift certificates, w/e.) This method of gratuity saves me $2K+ a year. I always tip when I win a rather large pot so that the table doesn't pick up on my cheapness but it's still always relatively small. Lots of tourists (and regulars) over-tip so that's how I justify my actions.
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Old 05-11-2010, 04:09 PM   #114
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Re: Bankroll Management For The Live Low Stakes Player

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100% DIGRESSION - NOT AN ANSWER

I feel duty bound to post in every thread remotely about bankroll a reminder that bankroll depends on winrate.

I don't think it's that relevant to your post about the tools you use, but I'm going to mention it anyway, because this will digress into a thread about "Speaking of bankroll, how many buy-ins do I need to play such-and-such?" And a lot of bad advice will be posted, because we won't know anyone's winrate.
The problem is that at the end of the day we have to guess about winrates anyway, so if someone is a winning player, its not atrociously horrible to give 'em a generic winrate.

Here's some of my good posts on the subject:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...gement-509726/
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/96...7/#post2813899
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Old 05-11-2010, 04:30 PM   #115
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Re: Bankroll Management For The Live Low Stakes Player

NOTE: My post above with a digression is probably redundant now that the threads got merged. Oh well.

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The problem is that at the end of the day we have to guess about winrates anyway, so if someone is a winning player, its not atrociously horrible to give 'em a generic winrate.
Fair enough, but you're thinking broadly about the question. You're also presupposing that someone's a winning player, which is an assumption that I'd like to see explicitly stated.

My problem is, people fire their "standard bankroll advice" without even considering whether there's evidence that the person asking for advice is a winner.

And of course, there are modest winners and crushing winners, the former more than the latter because we're on the tail of the bell curve*. You, Kurt, acknowledge this and accept a simplifying assumption, but most people giving the advice have never even considered it.

(Off to read the linked threads....)


----
*Kurt, you might find it interesting that I adapted this concept from the Bill James I read growing up. I never really learned to appreciate baseball, but I always appreciated his methodology in its quantitative rigor.
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Old 05-11-2010, 09:04 PM   #116
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I just recently got a bankroll tracking program for my phone. I downloaded Poker Income for Android. My first session was at 5/10 which I do not play regularly, just kinda sat down because it was open. But I won $4k in 4 hours and picked up, so as of now with my extremely limited sample i have a winrate of $1000/hour. lol.
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Old 05-14-2010, 02:15 PM   #117
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

I just picked up Poker Journal for my iPhone.

WTF is this ****!!!!



Seriously, WTF?!?
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Old 05-14-2010, 02:37 PM   #118
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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I just picked up Poker Journal for my iPhone.

WTF is this ****!!!!



Seriously, WTF?!?

WTF did you do KURT!!!!!!! LOL... I have my version, and have two buddies who have a version and I have never seen anything like this!!! I would write down the couple sessions you have on there do a clean erase and log them back in. If that dont work email Michael Golden and he'll fix it right up. That dont even make sense.

Oh and how the hell do you have 2 sessions at 51 hours??
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Old 05-14-2010, 03:58 PM   #119
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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WTF is this ****!!!!

Time warp. You hit 10k hours and got transported back to the start of your poker career, ldo.
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Old 05-14-2010, 06:44 PM   #120
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Whatever mysteriously went wrong, it just as mysteriously righted itself. Graphs are working now. Odd.

Entering time and date seems a bit awkward, but I'm really looking forward to giving this program a good spin.
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Old 05-14-2010, 07:13 PM   #121
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Whatever mysteriously went wrong, it just as mysteriously righted itself. Graphs are working now. Odd.

Entering time and date seems a bit awkward, but I'm really looking forward to giving this program a good spin.
Go to your phone settings and scroll to the bottom. Select PJ and you can change the way you enter some things. Like on my numbers I type them in not scroll select.
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Old 07-07-2010, 04:49 PM   #122
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Does anyone know of a decent Palm (Pre/Pixi) app for this, or better yet a mobile-friendly website? Does 3G usually work in casinos? I would be willing to develop either a site or WebOS app if there isn't a good one.

Also, being able to quickly enter HH for later review/posting would be fantastic.
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Old 07-07-2010, 05:18 PM   #123
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Also, being able to quickly enter HH for later review/posting would be fantastic.
Not sure about the plam app... as far as the HH thing goes... I thought it would be a good idea also. I found an app (which will remain nameless) that does just that. I though cool, finally! OMG what a PITA. It takes way too long to enter the hand and all the info that goes with it. There was probably about 3 hands that passed before I was done... and its not like this thing was badly built!

If I have an important hand I just write it in my phone notes or keep it logged in the memory file. I still remember hands that happened last year.
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Old 07-07-2010, 08:41 PM   #124
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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Not sure about the plam app... as far as the HH thing goes... I thought it would be a good idea also. I found an app (which will remain nameless) that does just that. I though cool, finally! OMG what a PITA. It takes way too long to enter the hand and all the info that goes with it. There was probably about 3 hands that passed before I was done... and its not like this thing was badly built!

If I have an important hand I just write it in my phone notes or keep it logged in the memory file. I still remember hands that happened last year.
For HH I love to use an app on the iPhone called dragon dictation. It allows you to speak into the phone and it writes everything down. Then I just copy and paste to my notes app. Less than 30 seconds and I have the complete HH.
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Old 07-07-2010, 09:24 PM   #125
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

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For HH I love to use an app on the iPhone called dragon dictation. It allows you to speak into the phone and it writes everything down. Then I just copy and paste to my notes app. Less than 30 seconds and I have the complete HH.
I actually have that app. Didnt even think of that, UH DUHHHHH. Of corse using the voice recorder does the same thing, another one i havent thought of. Some times its the mother effin simple things!
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