3bb/hr was kind of just a number I did a quick glance and composed. 2009 (20/hr), 2010 (15/hr), 2011 (20/hr). I assumed that because of my lack of variance and general lack of losing streaks - that I am running well, running very well, in fact over a 2.5k hours sample. So I assumed 3bb/hr is a more accurate estimate then 4bb-5bb/hr.
However, as I said when I posted my results in both post I have made in this thread, I round everything - so the one year that is 15/hr is actually closer to 17, the year that is 20/hr is actually closer to 19/hr, this year is actually closer to 22/hr. Just to make it easy for the sake of posting on a forum, I rounded everything basically to a 0 or a 5 last number. I'm aware of the impact this makes on estimating WR accuracy. I simply, don't care that much, I find it easier for people on the forum to process things like 20 vs 19.7, etc.
I try and separate promotions and comps from calculating my hourly. I understand it is essentially "rakeback" - despite that I try and keep that tabulated separate from my table winnings. Just the way I do things.
I wasn't trying to complain about my WR, I was mainly asking how come a player with a small win-rate such a mine - hasn't experienced many large swings. My standard deviation should be high, since my skill level is low - However, it seems to be low as I experience little variance. I am drawing that conclusion as my results seem to conform to my previous years results so far.
I guess I am curious what type of variance a 5-7bb/hr player is experiencing vs. myself? Considering I feel I am consistently running well at the tables, what do my current results say about my potential earnings?
I am mainly just shocked at how little variance I seem to have encountered over 2.5k hours.
To put into perspective, I also from 2009 til black friday I had played over 2million hands of online poker. Almost all SSPLO and some SSNL. I was essentially a break even poker player at the tables. All of my profits came from rakeback. But I was still significantly profitable. So I am well aware of what is within the scope of variance and I am capable of objectively analyzing my own skill level.
I understand I have only played 60kish hands of live poker over 3 years and that in it-self is a very small sample size. Maybe I have answered my own question 2.5k hours is still a small sampling of actual hands played. So maybe the variance will come?
I don't know - I guess I am just a little miffed at my lack of quality results. I feel I should be crushing the games, but I know that I am probably exceeding my expectation and it is very frustrating....
So I ramble and second guess everything haha.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AEPpoker
Note that i am deficient at detecting sarcasm, so im assuming this post is mostly serious.
First of all, you count promotions in your hourly. Because you pay for them out of the rake/promotional drop.
second your Q and ytd seem to be 5bb/hr and 4bb/hr respectively even without counting promotions. where are you getting 3?
third: what do you think you should be making? Im not saying that what youre reporting should be considered a ceiling, but "im bad at poker because i 'only' make 5bb/hr" seems a bit glass is half empty.
fourth: where are you playing? How are the games? is there any place that offers or might offer better ones? 3/5 games are not universally v. soft. I mean theyre soft, but youre not entitled to walk into a random 2/5 game and expect to be a 10bb/hr winner even if youre quite good. If youre in Sheboigan montana or something and you 2/3 of your hours playing with 7 WT fossils you just have to grind out what you can. Could you time/game select better?
Last edited by Bo Goldman; 05-17-2011 at 11:23 PM.