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| Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies. |
01-09-2011, 08:09 PM
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#406
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: SI, NY
Posts: 11,260
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda
How many hours do you guys think is a large enough sample size to determine if your winrate is close to what your long-term winrate will be?
So far I'm at about $10.50/hr at 1/2, playing at a fairly tough poker room w/ a pretty low rake. Sample size is about 85 hours, suffered one horrible beat for half a buyin. Never won a pot through a bad beat.
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In 85 hours, which would be 11 long sessions, you've only suffered ONE bad beat for half a buy in? I'd say you're running pretty well at the moment.
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01-09-2011, 08:39 PM
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#407
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veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: LV, UT, $$
Posts: 3,064
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
It doesnt really matter what your winrate is, as long as you make the correct decsions every hand the "winrate" just affects the variance associated with the game.
Obviously some people make better decisions than others.
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01-09-2011, 08:49 PM
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#408
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: California
Posts: 10,026
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda
How many hours do you guys think is a large enough sample size to determine if your winrate is close to what your long-term winrate will be?
So far I'm at about $10.50/hr at 1/2, playing at a fairly tough poker room w/ a pretty low rake. Sample size is about 85 hours, suffered one horrible beat for half a buyin. Never won a pot through a bad beat.
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I hope you mean the poker room is tough as in the whole room. 1/2 tables are never tough. What poker room you play at?
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01-09-2011, 09:40 PM
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#409
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,501
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
lol
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01-09-2011, 11:05 PM
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#410
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grinder
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 649
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Re: The truth on 1/2 and 2/5 winrates.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serio
Holy god I've seen so many of these threads, the general consensus IMO is this
1/2 avg is $15-$25, doesn't mean there aren't people doing $35-$40
2/5 avg is $30-$45, doesn't mean there aren't people doing $50-$60
At one point I was at $48 an hour playing 1/3, then a little thing called variance hit me and now I'm at $25.
This is what I think, obviously there is a reason there have been a million threads on this...
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FWIW the thread I posted this in was moved to here.. I should have probably just linked OP to this thread.
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01-10-2011, 08:07 AM
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#411
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journeyman
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 371
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
This thread isn't actually linked to from the FAQ - it really needs to be.
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01-10-2011, 08:21 AM
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#412
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Referee
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Living on the air in 3 forums
Posts: 15,556
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgeorg
This thread isn't actually linked to from the FAQ - it really needs to be.
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Actually, it is. But I'll make it clearer.
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01-10-2011, 12:14 PM
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#413
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journeyman
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 371
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
Thanks - the last time a winrate thread was created, I went to the FAQ to grab the link, and couldn't find it.
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01-10-2011, 10:19 PM
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#414
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grinder
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 448
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
I just started grinding 1/2 seriously last week. Ive played around 25 hours and am averaging around $80/hr hopefully can maintain this long term or increase my win rate a little bit.
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01-10-2011, 11:58 PM
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#415
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grinder
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Niagara
Posts: 478
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zampono
I just started grinding 1/2 seriously last week. Ive played around 25 hours and am averaging around $80/hr hopefully can maintain this long term or increase my win rate a little bit.
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Should be no problem, that's about standard.
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01-11-2011, 03:28 AM
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#416
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veteran
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,483
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
People post these hourly ranges like $15-$25 at 1/2 as though if youre a winning player your winrate will start at $15/hr. Like that is the entry-level salary or something. Honestly, if youre making $1/hr at 1/2 youre probably doing better than 95%+ of the players in your playerpool.
For those who havent been playing live a lot, do not expect to be automatically making the top end of the hourly ranges posters are suggesting here. Most winning players in these games proabably don't even approach the bottom of these ranges.
Oh, and I refuse to believe its possible to achieve $30+/hr at 1/2 $200-max-buy $4-rake over a significant sample. There may be people who have done it over 10 or 15k hands, but I have to believe they were running way above ev.
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01-16-2011, 02:08 PM
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#417
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veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: LV, UT, $$
Posts: 3,064
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
Is losing 3.5 buyins at 1-2 terrible? i had a few coolers like i turned the nut flush on 3 fvlush board bet, bet river guy shoved i insta called he showed str8 flush. i also had AA cracked, all in on flop i shoulda folded? This isnt a HH review just a general idea on how i kept losing.
last hand i shoved over a $45 raise from an UTG tighhht player for $220, i had AKcc he had KK and called.
i dont even know if i want to go back there, is stuff like this standard or should i quit?
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01-16-2011, 03:12 PM
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#418
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veteran
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Playing Recreationally
Posts: 2,207
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
Losing 3.5 buyins is nothing. The AK hand sounds like a spew against a nit. You will get coolered in NL. If you aren't losing stacks when coolered, you probably aren't maximizing your wins when ahead. Look at the graphs from some of the online guys. It's like the rocky freaking mountains. Just hang in there. If you play solid poker, you're probably a decent winner.
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01-16-2011, 03:48 PM
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#419
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adept
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Flipping AA vs. 63o and losing
Posts: 1,022
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
I think it would be helpful to unpack what goes into a win rate understand better the variation. Ie what percentage is just winning with the best hand, and what percentage is huge bluffs what percentage is cbetting and taking down pots.
I'm curious if the 15 dollar an hour win rate is possible displaying straightforward tag game or whether a lot of the winning actually comes from forcing folds.
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01-20-2011, 09:53 PM
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#420
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veteran
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,501
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Re: *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***
anyone ever post any live graphs in this thread? that would be neat to see, from a player with 500+ hours at one level
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