Quote:
Originally Posted by chaser3
Wow I guess I'm going to have to write this out for you.
You're not taking into account that you will need to control the variables every time you're calculating a break even strategy.
If you think you only need to win 1-4 of time to break even, then in one of trials you must be winning 3 times the amount you lose in every other trial. THIS IS SIMPLE MATH.
Thus if in the first 3 trial you lost 1 Buy-in each, then in the fourth trial you would need to win 3 buy ins. However since you only have 1 BI in front of you (due to you rebuying) you can only win 1 buy in in that fourth trial.
And I asked you to read it in context of the entire discussion, and I even quoted it.
I didn't think you were that thick, but I guess I will have to break it down for you with maybe smaller words:
Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazonPrime
Doubt it. My WR will make some of you puke.
Let me give you an example of what I went through yesterday.
I was up a BI right off the bat, got money in against an overpair with pair + 1 over + flush draw AI on the flop (49.8 vs 50.2), if won, 3BI up, but instead I lost. That's 4 BI swings right there.
Yes, it's not quite the same as losing 10BI's in 4 sessions, but the point is that if you can't win those flips and your over's are constantly cracked by draws, 10 or even 16BI's are not that hard to lose.
Here, so I started with 1 BI, and I was up 1, 1 + 1 = 2.
Using your breakdown, which I never disputed:
Sequence:
1) You lose 1 buy in
2) You lose 1 buy in
3) You lose 1 buy in
4) You win 3 buy ins.
Get what I meant by reading in context?
So anything else you would like to discuss, or get back to the main point that 4BI swing is quite easy and if that happens few times in short time span = 16 BIs swing.