I think what venice said is especially important in today's LLSNL.

Most villains are especially careful with naked pairs than ever before.

Saw a guy flop top set over set over set twice in ~2 weeks. Needless to say he cleaned up both times.

The 2nd time was the sickest:
- EP opens for 3BB (15) with QQ, called by HJ with 33, Button with 77, and BB with 22.
- Flop 732 rainbow.
- BB checks, EP leads with his overpair, 333 flats, 777 flats, 222 check raises. QQ folds. 33 calls, 777 calls.
- Turn is a blank. 222 bets, 333 raises big, 777 flats, 222 goes all in for just a bit more, 333 calls, 777 calls.
- River is a Q (of course!). 333 checks, 777 goes all in for 100, 333 sigh calls the remaining 100. Pot was ~1500-1700.

K hand from today:

Going up against a big stack. Younger guy, has gotten the stack in some weird pots where some shania was most definitely involved. He's clearly aggressive and tricky, but open limps this hand.

I should have a fairly taggy image, haven't done much. Have been cbetting a bit and had to fold to a raise to another guy, his friend.

I pop AJ to 20 OTB (in general I open pretty small). Villain calls.

Pot: 45
Flop: A 4 3

Villain checks, I bet 25, Villain pauses for a few secs and raises to 100.

For reference, this is pretty much the tightest range I can come up with:
Board: Ah 4c 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.346% 45.44% 00.90% 8998 178.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 53.654% 52.75% 00.90% 10445 178.50 { 44-33, A4s-A3s, 7c5c, 6c5c, A4o-A3o }

Question is to shove with a merged range, hopefully folding AQ/AK (seems unlikely he has that tbqh) or to call and hope to hit in position.

Way to establish your old-time cred!

I like a shove here. Get some FE vs better aces and huge odds against FDs...

He has to fold, what, ~5% for me to be profitable here? Question is what is most profitable.

ETA: We're ~500 deep.

I think shoving is best. It will indeed get him off AQ, and I can't see him folding the combo SD FD after making a large overraise. If he bricks OTT the bottom of his range may give up since his equity is cut in half. Run it twice if you dont like variance

lol wish I could run it twice.

My thought processes were pretty similar, just doing a sanity check because my past 7 sessions have been negative.

I think being IP makes this pretty close though. If I knew villain better and knew he'd be the type of player to make hilariously small turn bets (fairly common in live, no pot button next to raise, but he made a man sized raise on the flop), I think calling is 100% correct.

OOP it's a shove AINEC.

The boarded teased me because I thought I would be good when I hit a J, villain had 44 though, no dice.

I don't think you have a lot of FE in this spot.

In a HU situation like this one, I think villain is much more likely to be sitting on PP than suited connectors and suited aces.

I'll call in this spot for implied value and position.

I've seen him limp with A4o already. Definitely a big chunk of his range. Question is AQ-AT KQcc etc.

You have to take it in context, I don't think he would limp with A4o in most instances.

Anyhow, A4 is not much different than 44 in this spot.

From my POV it is. I'm actually ahead of A4-A3 on the flop, and a proper calculation of a bluff's value = Fold equity + hand equity. I have little of the former and a ton of the prior. If you think I have to severely discount the combos of two pair, the question of folding comes up rather quickly.

I was referring to FE from villain's perspective, not our hand equity.

Hero's FE against villain on this board is pretty much the same whether villain is sitting on 44 or A4.

If there isn't much FE, I don't think shove is profitable.

No, only if there is absolutely no FE is a shove not profitable. Just a bit and we're home easy. Not sure if that's the case here.

If you only keep A3s - A4s, 33, and 44 in villain's range, then hero has roughly 38%.

Villain has to fold about 20% of the time for the shove to be +EV, and I don't think you have 20% here.

Which is why I made sure to tell you why A4 is most definitely in his range?

What was the previous context that he open limped UTG with A4o?

I just don't see any decent player limping UTG with A4o.

Villain wasn't UTG. He limped in late MP. Think HJ or the one before HJ.

still limping A4o from any position is pretty bad (excluding the sb if there is a ton of limpers)

That's not in dispute?

Not sure where I read UTG, lol.

Anyhow, I just don't think any decent villain would limp/call with A4o in a HU situation against another decent opponent.

So if we remove A4o from his range, you will need 20% FE to make the shove EV+.

Once we settle the range, then I guess we can argue whether there is 20% FE in this spot.

I think some of you are looking at this wrong. The pot is $165. Hero has $455 left. The question is not just the odds, but what Hero can earn going forward. The pot has dead money in it to make up for the slightly underdog status

Option 1: Shove
Assuming an automatic call, Hero needs 46% equity to make this neutral. Hero has 46% equity. Therefore shoving is neutral (well, slightly positive due to rounding).

Option 2: Call
Hero gets 2:1 to call. The problem is that on the turn, Hero's equity turns to mush and can't get odds at that point to call if he misses. If he hits, he can't get paid off. Not a good option.

Option 3: Fold
OK, just covering the bases. Folding would be terri-bad.

Result: This is a shove even if there is no FE of better hands. If there is air in the villain's range, he's not putting more money in anyway, so Hero doesn't lose anything. A call allows the villain to collect money while ahead and escape if he becomes behind.

I'd disagree with the first bolded assumptions. Villains don't play perfectly. You then contradict these assumptions in the second bolded part.
He is barreling with air to make us incorrectly fold AJ in your first paragraph and c/f in the second.

Game got crazy last night... 1/2nl bar game, no rake no drop, just tipping. One hand of Omaha hi-lo, with the dealer paying $3 in blinds, when the button came by him. Straddles up to $50 from anywhere, with the standard straddle of $16.

Pots were up to $800 at times, a few were down 1k+. I walked away down $40. One tilted "reg" was shipping 200BB's with 75ss because "I know I have live cards" and turning trips. Another older woman "reg" open bet called the 3b and went runners for a gutter straight and said, "well I turned the flush and straight draw what else could I have done" when she check-called a large flop bet on a dry A rainbow board.

Most hands were raised to 50BB's before the action got to the button ended up multi-way AIPF or on the flop drawing. The hands I saw most of the night were J4, T3, Q6 type of stuff... :/

I was 200BB's deep (normal BI) and managed to play a few small pp's and a QJss before I left for home. The game starts out pretty normal at 5 handed then just goes crazy sometimes depending on who shows up to play. I was waiting for something like AK, JJ+ preflop and had the mid to make my normal raise $12, and just shove or go with it when 3b.

All but two others were just getting it in pre most of the time and then the comments started, "Yeah he's gonna wait for aces and win $18 when he comes in LOL"... No way I'm being dragged into their game of shipping and flipping.

Last Tuesdays game stayed fairly normal with some straddles of $16, but you were able to play some poker, play for draws, bluff a bit and I walked off with 250BB profit.

Am I wrong here? Do most of you ship KQss, ATss, AJ against 3-4 others pre?

If it dominates their ranges, sure. That rarely happens, but if they are really shoving 75s type hands, I'd get it in and embrace the variance.

I guess we disagree on the scenario.

I just don't see a decent player making a move OOP at a very small pot by bluffing with 20% of the effective stack against a hero that is perceived to hit the flop pretty hard.

I also don't see a decent villain limp/calling OOP in a HU scenario against decent opponent without at least Axs, or PP.

So combining the two, I am pretty sold on our equity around 38%, thus a shove followed by an auto call makes this -EV.