1 / 2 NL at local casino.

Villain ($235) is a semi reg in 50’s male that usually buys in short for $60, sometimes $100 and will raise pre-flop with premium hands and get it in if he hits. And he’ll limp with pocket pairs to set mine. I would say consider him weak tight.

History with villain tonight – hero stacked him (roughly $90) when 10 high flop came and hero bet w/ AT and he re-raised all-in w/ KT.

Second hand with villain – hero in bb w/ Q8, UTG, villain and 2 more limpers. Flop 8 high, hero bets out $10, UTG and villain call. Turn is A. Hero and UTG check and villain bets $25. Hero folds and UTG and villain showdown and villain wins w/ J8. Prior to this hand villain had doubled up his rebuy by hitting a set. The J8 really surprised me since I only recall seeing him showdown with sets and high cards. So, he’s definitely opened up his usually tight range with his bigger stack.

Hero ($285) is 40’s female reg – probably perceived as weak tight also but villain knows I’ll c-bet and take stabs at the pot from position.

The hand in question:

Villain (UTG) and one limper and hero limps on button w/ 8 9. SB completes and BB checks. I didn’t raise pre-flop because SB who’s got a huge stack has been somewhat of a maniac raising and re-raising with ATC.

Flop ($10) 9 7 2 – checks around and hero bets $10. SB calls and Villain calls.

Turn ($40) T, checks around and hero bets $25, SB folds, villain raises to $100 and has about $125 behind. Hero?

So, I’ve got second pair with OESFD. It’s $75 to call and the pot is approx $165. I don’t believe villain is ever folding to a shove here since almost half his stack is already in the pot. I think two pair and sets are his likely holdings. Not sure if he’d take this line with a draw.

So is this a fold, call or shove?

Flat and evaluate on the turn. Because V put that many chips in, it's likely that he's committing to the river no matter what falls. If a diamond comes, how can he put you on a backdoor flush?

Everything comes down us not raising pre.You have to raise your button if your gonna play it.Since you didnt raise,the pot is very small on the flop and your never getting everyone to fold for just $10.Im not sure how anyone else feels but i would check the turn.Keep it small here,get your free card.If its a brick and he bets you can consider a call or if you drill your card you can raise/bet for value.

2 pair is more likely here,maybe even an overpair or possibly A10 clubs.I dont think villain is slow playing a set on a draw heavy board. As played its a fold,were getting about 3-1 and paying $75 to win $165 so the odds are not in our favor.

75 to win 165

2.2:1

youre getting odds to hit your 17 outs

your flush outs are good here 99% of the time as i doubt he has A7dd which youre ahead of anyway or j8dd

straight outs are good against 86 and chopping with j8

also its conceivable he has 10 7 leaving your trip outs live


AND if he has 1010 he may stack off if you hit your flush (to him its probably inconceivable for you to backdoor a flush) or hit your sraight as again you wouldhave to backdoor it


so sets are in his range leaving you wit implied odds to go with your current odds

i would call putting 1010 and 86 as the most probable hands he could have, if you hit your 17 outs you will get paid

Dont forget clubs may not be live here

Do you know you don't have a sfd? You have the same number of outs to improve your hand plus the pair. The outs may not necessarily be good.

Anyway, since it looks like villain is committed, I would just flat. It looks like he's shoving any river card and we can call if we hit, fold if we don't.

More or less this. We have the odds to call and draw and good chance we stack villain if we hit, so call and hope to hit.

As far as raising pre. That is dependant on image. Limping btn is fine. Raising is fine IF you are up against fit-n-fold villains that respect your image and fold to your aggression and can credit you with an A or K...

These are the things we need to think about prior to raising pre...

I estimate somewhere around 12ish outs or so, which requires about 3:1 odds. So we're gong to have to make upwards of $75 on the river when hitting to make some money. A couple of outs (that I'm not counting in estimate) could lose all our money (when a flush completes and fills him up) so I guess that has to be considered. Pot will be $240 on the river. Will villain ever be able to fold for ~1/2 PSB remaining stack if our 4-to-a-straight / obvious flush / straight-bringing-other-flush comes in?

For me, I think this comes down to ability of villain to fold to 1/2 PSB shove on the river when a scary card comes. If he just sighs and calls most of the time, it's probably a call. Otherwise, I think I'd just fold, which against this reg type player I'm assuming is the best play.

No way I'm shipping the turn cuz no one is every folding the turn after check/raising and committing this many chips in relation to pot.

P.S. Kudo's to him for making a raise size that prices us out. Typically villains are bad at raise sizing so I think we could usually get away with a semi-bluff / call here, but he didn't fall for it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Way overestimating our number of outs, IMO.

We have 7 non-pairing flush outs. If a board pairing flush outs comes, there's a decent chance we lose our stack.

We have 6 non-flushing straight outs. But villain might already have the straight (we chop or can even lose to J8 hitting a 6). Possible (although admittedly very unlikely) that club straight outs are dirty.

I'm not giving much weight to trip / two pair outs given this action, and again they have high RIO.

I think 12 outs is a much better estimate, all of which create very scary boards (backdoor flush be damned) that villain *might* not pay off on.

Thanks for the replies. I had figured the 17 outs and thought I had the odds to call. But, after reading Gobbledygooks reply, I agree that some of those outs may not be clean outs. As a somewhat beginner and still with a lot to learn, I didn't think about that at the time. But, hopefully I will next time

As far as the hand goes - I did call the $75 and the river was a brick. The guy put the rest of his stack in and I folded.

not results oriented: I check the turn.