I is at a very active and aggro table late on July 3 / early July 4. I just doubled through an active and reckless player. He bet out with 107 and I re-raised him with AQo on a flop of AK4. He then shipped it and I instacalled and held.

This same player is in the straddle, for $5. Game is 1/2. He and I are eff stacks at ~$450.

I pick up AKo from UTG+2.

I make it $25. I mean business. The table has been way way too cally.

Only villain in question calls, from the straddle.

AK5 (~$50)

Straddle checks.
I bet $40.
Straddle calls.

7 (~$130)

Straddle checks.
I bet $100.
Straddle folds, showing A.

How's my line? Are we ever folding if villain happens to c/r the flop or turn or are we happy to get stacks in vs this opponent on this board with this hand? I'm not comfortable in spots that deep, but obv I'm playing in the game because I feel that my opponents are about 10x more incompetent in such situations. During the hand, I was genuinely unsure of what to do if I faced a reraise at any point, but felt like I needed to play for stacks because player is so wreckless he could be doing it with a bunch of pairs + flush draws.

I don't think it would be +EV to 4 bet shove.

1. Think about the bet sizing: you raise to $20, you get a caller, villain 3 bets to $80 or so. If you shove, you're risking $480 to win $120. When you get stacks in against QQ+ and AK, you have 25% equity. If that's his calling range, then you expect to lose $315 when called. Thus, for the play to be profitable, you need him to fold about 73% of the time.

2. If you need him to fold 73% of the time, and he will call with the top 2.6%, then simple math tells us you need him to be 3 betting 10% of all hands. I have never seen someone that aggro at live 2/5.

Chances are that the math is more complicated or at least different against the 10% 3 bettor, because if you found someone 3 betting 10%, he'd be such a loose cannon that his calling range would probably be wider.

The point here is that it is mathematically easy to show that 4 bet shoving AQ against the typical 3 bettor is suicidal.

Rizeagainst, your line is fine and against that V I'm surprised you didn't get another street of value with his TPWK. We are never folding on this board to this V, imo.

Speaking of 3 bets, I was about to post this hand from last night.

Villain has a bet sizing tell. He raises good hands to $12, and raises small pockets Ax suited and suited connectors to $6. He raises to $6 or so about 25% of hands. He has not yet been 3 bet.

One limper, villain is in CO and raises to $7, I am OTB with KcTd, I 3 bet to $21 (image is nitty and winning, card dead for 2 hours villain has been at the table, but I have $500 in front of me) villain has $260.

All fold to villain, who calls.

Flop ($41): Kd Qd 5c

Villain checks, I bet $30, villain calls.

Turn ($100): Jd

Villain checks, I check (anybody bet?)

River ($100): 2d

Villain leads $40. Call or raise?

I call. I think you'd just be value-towning yourself because he's obv never folding the Ad. And with 4 diamonds out there I don't think he's calling with a 9 hi flush or worse.

No, but I might check back the river. Would have to be there to be sure, but I have a hard time believing he'd call a third street with just an ace, so I'd be pretty worried about his two check/calls by the river.

If he check/shoves the turn IDK what I'd do. Puke/call, I guess.

Mpethy, I call. Sure you have second nuts, but I don't see worse calling a raise. Board is too damn scary. A 9-high flush is prob not calling even a min-raise.

Go check the chat thread for the next hand I played against this villain.

I just called. MHIG, he had Qh Jh. Draw/redraw FTW.

Thanks for this response, the math clarifies the issue. The 10% 3bet figure is perhaps the most efficient way of approaching this scenario when at the table. It's seldom likely I'll come across a player type at 2/5 who 3bet this often.

I don't know why I got into such a mash over this scenario; maybe it's because AQs only has 3.5% less equity than AK against JJ+/AK+/76s-98s, so my thinking was: if you can 4bet shove AK why not AQs? But, really, your conclusion would be that AK is generally a fold too, unless we're getting at least 2:1, which will only ever happen if there are some short-stacks involved, but of course, these s/s reduce our overall equity.

I guess the argument for having 4bet range is redundant at LLSNL too, in which case there's no meta-game value in taking this aggressive line with AQs.

I know this sounds silly, but many Villains wouldn't even consider 9d the 3rd nuts here; they'd just see it as a 9 high flush and thus be calling as a bluff-catcher.

Strange hand. Does Villain just c/c with sets? He might have been planning a c/r on the turn, since you 3bet preflop. But he only has 3 set combos in his range due to the bet-sizing tell. He can have a straight, perhaps. Does he play a bluff on the river?

I wouldn't bet turn in position, due to the free roll, which we might need against Villain's continuation range. Would be interested to hear an argument for betting turn, though.

Villain is older reg who has decent discipline, but is passive and overpays for draws. (about $200)

Hero is second youngest player at table at 40, hasn't been sitting long, but if V notices or remembers previous sessions, hero is tight and plays his made hands very fast. (Covers, maybe $275)

5 limpers to me and I overlimp with 5s6s OTB. BB bumps it to $6 and most call.

Pot: ~$38 after rake
Flop: 3sTs7s
Checks to V in MP who leads for $12, folds to hero who raises to $37, folds back to V who tanks and calls. I put his range for this as made non-nut flushes, a pair with As, maybe naked As or 89 with one spade.

Pot: $110 (rake now maxed)
Turn: 3sTs7s Ad
V checks. Hero bets $50 to get value from As that just hit TP or 2p. V calls pretty quickly, leaving just over $100 behind

Pot: $210
River: 3sTs7sAd 8c
V checks. Will 2p pay off three streets enough to make this a bet, or is it too thin and hero should just check behind as only better flushes will call a half/pot shove?

So close. If deeper I bet/fold a silly 1/3 psb since he is not creative enough to turn his hand into a bluff. I think I shove IF my image was a little FOS. I would have bet $60-65 OTT since the ace smacks his calling range.

If he calls all 2 pairs I shove. If not I check back. This is read based. Based on description and typical 1/2 players I just shove.

Another thing, its much better to value own yourself than let someone off easy if they will still call with worse. a 1/2 PSB seems more +ev than a check back, but expect to own yourself a decent amount.

Yea I agree, conventional wisdom would say that you should shove for 1/2 on the river, and maybe that is optimal, but these type of players rarely if ever call big bets on wet boards with 2 pair or something less then the nuts. The problem is that this type of player might actually show up with like a K-high flush because he's scared on the A-high flush. I have value-owned myself soooo many times against old nits who just call my river bet with K-high and Q-high flushes.

I still think checking is too passive and I 100% agree with Pay4Myschool that its better to value-own yourself then to let villain away with not having to call a river bet.

Like stated above I think a stupid 1/4 pot $50 bet is the best play, because Villain will likely call with 2pair and sets, maybe even the A And you can actually safely fold even for your last $50 because this villain will never raise the river without nuts or 2nd nuts. imo.

OK, let's change this up a bit. Right after this hand, floor comes to V to have him stand up because someone want to sit and the table is full. At this point we realize he is a prop player. If we had known this before, how does it change our decision?

I'm not familiar with prop players. How exactly would it change your read? I'm assuming a prop player is more likely to be loose-passive. The hand seemed pretty straightforward, can't see any real arguments for not betting 1/2 pot on the river. Non-flushes would still call, especially after calling first-two streets, IMO.

Prop players are generally quite tight, as they play on their own BR and get an hourly from the casino. They are often (but not always) on the nitty side and need that hourly to add to their WR to make a living. Look at it this way, they see the hourly as higher EV than being able to choose their own hours and game select.

I'm guessing you shoved and villains snapped you off with a higher flush. I still don't think shoving is a leak. This is one of those spots similar to sets on a 3 card straight board like 7 8 10 monotone for 100bb. Hero has 88 and is facing heat with 100bb effective stacks vs a tigher thinking player. A fold isn't bad, a shove isnt bad.

I think in this case a shove and a check back are really close. I think your comparing a couple $ either way (vs a villain of this description)

Obv I thought it was close, or it would get its own thread instead of being here.

I'm pretty new to the table. Have no real image thus. MP is a middle aged asian man wearing a shirt with what appears to be his name on it. Not much more to go off than that, I haven't seen him at the casino before. CO is a black man in his 20s or 30s, whom is an awful and passive regular.

$1/2

MP and I are 100BB eff, CO has perhaps $70 or $75.

Limp or two.
MP raises to $15.
CO calls $15.
Folds to me
I look at QQ in BB
I raise to $52
Folds to MP, who calls.
CO calls.

J76 (~$150)

I open shove my $148.

Anything wrong here?

The 3bet set up a SPR to shove all non-K/A flops.

don't see how i can possibly play the hand any differently. CO calls, shows KK

it's just a cooler dude.

I know, I was saying nothing wrong. Villain got lucky with FPS lol. You could've had AA, JJ, he's only tying the other two Ks. Oh well.

silently thank CO for not having 100BB. You lost 37BB with an overpair. Next hand.

Anyone know an easy way to count flush draw combos?

Say we have (A 8) and the flop is

A T 5


The only way I can think of is to go through each Kxhh, Qxhh, Jxhh etc. in villain's range and count.

Is there a better way to get an idea of how much of a villain's range is flush draws besides counting combos?