2/5(10), $1k max, 9-handed, Parx Philly.

Live reads:

Table dynamics - one of wildest games I've ever played. There's a 10/10 reg sitting two seats to my right, pressuring everyone at the table to put the $10 UTG straddle on every hand (and mostly getting everyone to do it, with very few exceptions), and is himself frequently blind raising $20 when the straddle is on and he's UTG1. There's lots of 3B'ing pre-flop, along with a fair bit of 4B'ing, and some insane back-raises from MP and LP limps/flats. Guys are getting $600+ "short" stacks in pre-flop at least once an orbit.

V - MAWG. Hat. Sunglasses. Never played with him before, but I just started playing 2/5 at Parx about a month ago. I got the sense he was a TAG/solid reg. Despite the table being pretty lively, this guy barely uttered a peep all night. Can't remember this guy getting out of line, and don't really remember this guy 3B'ing or 4B'ing much pre-flop. Not sure exactly how much he has in front of him, because I can't really see his stack very well, but I'm pretty sure it was around $1500-$1800.

About an hour earlier, he doubled me up when I 4B-jammed AsKc pre - he snap called, I rivered the nut flush, he seemed pretty angry when he showed just the Ks, making me think he had AxKs. He might be looking for some revenge.

Early in the session, I noticed most of his pre-flop opens were mostly getting folds all around, especially his EP opens. But after a while, I noticed he was getting called more, and he'd been tanking a ton whenever he faced any post-flop aggression, making me think he'd opened up his pre-flop raising range because people were giving his opens too much credit.

Some of the spots where he was tanking seemed like pretty easy decisions, making me think he either wasn't comfortable playing vs aggression post-flop, and didn't like folding his marginal hands, or he was just Hollywooding. I noticed that when he tanked, his tank-folds and tank-raises were never as long as his tank-calls. And when he tank-called, he'd usually end up raising/jamming or folding on later streets, supporting my belief that he was raising pre and tank-calling post with marginal hands, hoping to improve.

H - $2500. MAWG, solid/LAG image. I'd been relentlessly 3B'ing the opens from the aggro kid on my direct right, and mostly playing a raise-or-fold strategy from the SB pre, because the guy on my direct left had been relentless about raising whenever I tried to limp or just flatted anyone's raise. I'd been caught bluffing 2-3 times, but never outrageous / huge bluffs with air, always spots that seemed reasonable. Whenever I put lots of money in the pot, I always had a real hand, win or lose. Other than the one hand above, where V doubled me up, I hadn't really gotten involved with this guy.

OTTH...

No straddle in this hand, for whatever reason. V opens to $20 from UTG1. Folds to hero in SB. Hero raises to $80 with KhQc. V tanks 10-20 seconds while staring at me (as I stare straight at the far wall), then calls.

($160) - 9c8c5s. Hero x. V bets $75. H x/r's to $200. V tanks for half a minute while staring at me (still looking at the far wall), then calls.

($560) - 9c8c5sTs. Hero $300. V tanks for half a minute, staring at me again, then calls.

($1160) - 9c8c5sTs3h.

Hero? Should I continue to barrel or give up?

Hero's thoughts in-game...

Not sure if V is good enough to realize I'm playing raise-or-fold from the SB pre, but V somewhat capped his range by flatting my 3B, considering he 3B me and called my 4B jam in that earlier hand, with what I assume was AKo, but could have been KK or KQs. It should be obvious to him that my pre-flop 3B range isn't just JJ+/AKs.

He most likely doesn't have AA/KK/AKs. He might be as strong as 99-QQ, but I think he'd probably 4B QQ and AKo. I think he's pretty capped at JJ, AXs, and some of the better suited connectors. He might also be set-mining with some weaker/middling pairs, like 66-88. I don't think he's flatting 3B's pre with 22-55 or middling suited connectors worse than 98s. I'm discounting his flopping a straight with 76 or bottom set with 55.

I took an unusual line by x/r'ing flop, because I thought this guy would just call the whole way with any over-pair, any nut flush draw and some of his better straight/combo draws if I c-bet this middling flop. I wanted to narrow his range as much as possible on the flop, so I wouldn't just be stabbing wildly on turn/river. I also wanted to make him uncomfortable continuing with his entire range, knowing I'd have the betting lead if he just called my x/r. Once I x/r flop and he just calls, I felt like he was very capped at 1P, 1P + a draw, or two overs + a draw.

Doesn't seem like V is the type to slow-play straights, sets, 2P or big combo draws on flop or turn against a LAG opponent like me, when I could be aggressively betting all my draws, all my over-pairs, and all my thick-value, and it looks like I'm sizing up for a big river bet. After flatting flop and turn, it seems like V has an over-pair, most likely JJ, or maybe 1P plus a draw that bricked, like 66/77, or just 2 over-cards and a draw that bricked.

I feel like my range is totally uncapped, with all the big pairs, as well as a lot of hands that connect with this board to make 2P or better. Admittedly, I probably wouldn't be x/r'ing this flop with my big over-pairs very often, but I will take that line sometimes, when I think an opponent will bet whenever I check to them, which is what I think this V would do with most or all of his pre-flop open-3B-flat range, which I don't think connects with this flop very often. I'm definitely taking this line with my flopped 2P, sets, straights, and combo-draws.

I think TT and QJcc/QJss are the best hands he has here, but I really don't think he'd slow-play them on turn. I don't think V would think I'm taking this line with hands like A9s, so V can rule out me having TPTK or worse for value.

All the flush draws bricked. It seems fairly unlikely he has QJ/TT/99/88/76 or 55. I don't love having the Qc in my hand, blocking some of his possible AQ/KQ combos that will likely fold to a big river bet, but I do like that I'm blocking his slow-played KK/QQ and some of his QJ combos that turned the nut straight, and unblocking his AKcc/AKss.

This reminds me of a hand I played a long time ago, when a rec player tanked for a long time before calling 2 my flop and turn bets.

Then he tank-jammed over my river bet.

I would absolutely not assume he is weak here.

Vs described villain why not just c/f the flop? Seems like the kind of player that will miss some of the lower eq bluffs there IP and just bet a fairly strong range on the flop.

I like to pound at ranges that are weak and capped. Raising into a strong/uncapped (he can have all the sets, 67s, 89s, TT, JJ) range with a very weak bluff is just gambling/playing guessing games.

What do you think the ev of this kind of bluff is?

I think AP we follow through.

Somewhat unconventional line on this board texture as the 3-bettor.

I think V should have a hard time calling three streets of strength with JJ/QQ/JT which are weighted heavily in his range. And it would absolutely suck to lose to AcXc either by folding to it as his bluff or at SD if he checks back.

But in general, this board texture doesn’t favour us and I don’t love running a minimal equity bluff for 300bb+.

Don't think I was assuming he was weak in absolute terms. Rather, I was using a lot of info to put V on a range that wasn't all that strong with this board, against my range, as played.

But, yeah, it certainly crossed my mind on flop and turn that I was taking a big risk by getting pretty far out of line with my hand.

One of the other issues is that your hand kind of looks like a missed nut club draw as well, which may make him hero call

Does he think you are c/r this flop and 3 barreling AA/KK at this depth ?

Whoa that's a lot of text haha next time try to simplify it a bit to make it easier for us to dissect.

I would mostly just stick this one in the muck pre vs an EP open or else we just have too big of a 3b range here OOP. Only exception is when you know your opponent is opening too wide from these positions, but still don't love it bc we get called often (live poker nobody folds) and have to play bloated pots OOP.

As played I don't like the check raise on the flop. We have stuff like QJfd QJbdfd JTfr JTbdfd QTfd etc to balance our value with, that should be plenty.

Once we show up on this river I think I'd rather block the jack and unblock clubs if I'm going to bluff. Live poker is not this complicated though, you can probably just avoid these spots and it'll be the same difference.

My line here would usually be c-bet/give-up, check-call, or check-fold flop, against most opponents, in most games. My reasoning for taking a different line here was:

1. It was a wild game. Everyone was having a good time. But this guy was a real sour-puss. I wanted to punish him for being a too-tight d-bag in such a fun game, with so much loose action.

2. I was pretty sure he was still tilted from doubling me up earlier, and I thought I could out-play him post-flop.

3. I was playing a pretty tight 3B-or-fold range in the SB/BB pre-flop, because of how wild the table was pre, especially with the aggressive opponent on my direct left, someone I've played with a lot. I felt like V was probably good enough to understand that I wasn't 3B'ing very light OOP, especially over his EP open, with his TAG image.

4. I didn't like the idea of taking a c-bet/give-up, check-call, or check-fold line on the flop with my hand and our stack depths, against this particular V. I didn't like the idea of getting to the river with K-high after it going check-call on flop and check-check on turn. I thought my flop x/r had a high probability of getting through, but if it didn't, I thought it would help narrow his range further, and I was mentally committed to barreling turn.

5. I felt pretty strongly that his open-flat range pre-flop was pretty condensed to 66-JJ, some weaker suited aces, and some better/higher suited connectors. I was pretty sure he'd be 4B'ing pre with all his big pairs and better suited aces, but wouldn't be flatting my 3B with 22-55, or any suited connector worse than 98s.

I planned to fold if he 3B flop or raised turn, which I felt strongly he would do with 2P or better, and his best combo draws. When he flatted my 3B pre, flatted my flop x/r, and flatted turn, I felt very strongly that is range was super-condensed to 1P hands and worse.

It's definitely a very unconventional line on the flop. Reasons for it in my post above.

But, yes, I thought V'd have a hard time calling a big river bet given the line I took here, and obviously I didn't think K-high could win in a showdown.

I very rarely attempt these sorts of big, multi-street bluffs with minimal equity hands.

I didn't think the board texture was actually all that terrible for my range, given the live reads and history. I was and am capable of 3B'ing pre in the SB with 67s, 55, 99, 88, TT, JTs, and 98s, and I will sometimes go for a x/r with big over-pairs on these sorts of boards, when I'm heads-up against the original PFR and I'm the pre-flop 3B'er.

While some of this is valid I would make a general comment based on some of the language that it’s ok not to fight for every pot. Especially with very high SPR. Especially OOP. Especially against a relatively tight/strong range. Especially when the board texture does not give you a nut/range advantage.

As btc said, this unsuited Broadway hand can very reasonably just be a fold pre from the bb against a tight upfront opener.

As I said in my initial response, I think bluffing missed NFDs and one pair hands that may not have the stones to call a big river barrel makes continuing your story ok, but the approach to the hand was flawed imo.

Good point, and good question.

Like I said, I didn't love having the Qc in my hand. But I figured it wasn't terrible for me to be blocking KK/QQ/AQ/KQ/QJ, while unblocking some possible club and spade draws.

Does he think I'm taking this line with AA/KK? Hard to say.

My 3B pre and flop x/r could be repping AA/KK, but when he calls flop and the turn is the Ts, I might slow down with AA/KK, depending on the suits in my hand versus those on board. I'm probably barreling with AA/KK if I'm unblocking my opponents' flush draws. I'd also be barreling with AXcc/AXss, all my 2P, sets, straights and improved draws.

Once I barrel turn, I think I still have some AA/KK in my range, but I also have a lot of 2P or better, whereas I think his actions really cap him at 1P or 1P + a draw.

Yeah, sorry about the wall of text. There was a lot of live read stuff that led to my taking this line.

I don't know that KQo should be a fold pre in this spot, but I'm definitely not taking this line post-flop very often, if ever. This was a very unique situation (hence, all the background detail).

My plan was to fold to a 4B pre, a 3B on flop, or a raise on turn. With all the strength I was showing, and having never gotten way out of line in any previous hand at this table, I was pretty sure this guy wasn't going to slow-play a strong hand, and would want to get stacks in on turn, to win back the chips he lost when he doubled me up earlier.

All that said - yes, absolutely, I'm generally avoiding spots like this more often than not. It's extremely rare for me to run a huge air-ball bluff like this.

My approach was insanely flawed. You can say it. Won't hurt my feelings at all. I think the pre-flop 3B was fine, but things got pretty stupid thereafter. I totally admit it.

I'm not the guy who tries to fight for every pot, especially not at a table like this one was, with so much loose action, and me generally running pretty good.

I absolutely hate myself whenever I end up in these stupid spots on the river, where I blasted off and missed everything, and the only choices left are to give up or push out a huge bluff.

Sorry, overlooked this question in your post.

Good question. I'm not the best at calculating specific EVs. This one seems more like a "pick your spot well" low-likelihood-of-success bluff, as opposed to my usual bluffs, which are generally much more considered, when I'll have better blockers/unblockers, I'm IP, the pot and bets are smaller, my opponents haven't shown any aggression or interest, etc.

Overall, I admit my line here is terrible. My main question is what to do on the river, given the fact that we got here the way we did. Continuing to barrel seems to be huge risk-reward, but checking is almost certainly doomed to failure.

I was definitely playing the player on this one.

So in theory the majority of your bluffs will be 0 ev and the purpose is to ensure you are paid off when you have value hands. The few bluffs that are clearly profitable are spots where you have a massive range advantage/some amazing blockers.

So in practice we have to consider why we are doing this bluff, is it blunt aggression or are we really doing this thoughtfully?

When you go bananas at spots where opponent is clearly capped and you feel he’s in the weaker parts of his range, that’s where your bluffs really make money.

It is clear from your post that you pay a lot of attention to detail and are thoughtful, so you have the means to do this.

It seems that you’re already on the aggressive side and the real danger to your win rate is over bluffing marginal spots, not underbluffing to the point you don’t get action anymore.

Therefor run every bluff through a good old calculation. List his range, the hands he will fold, and work out what the ev of your bluff is and only make bluffs that are clearly +ev. Keep a margin of safety against wishful thinking. Stay away from bluffs that are around breakeven. They’re too easy to find and a slight miscalculation could make it be a losing play.

When you do this well you will be aggressive enough allround that people will pay you off in most/all spots and you don’t even need to bluff some of the really marginal spots.

If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the majority of everyone's bluffs will be 0 ev, not just my bluffs specifically, based on the lunacy I've displayed in this hand, correct?

The rest jives with my observation and experience.

Let's split the baby and call this one thoughtfully blunt aggression.

I sort of felt like that's what I was doing, but I also expected most people here to tell me I was crazy and wrong.

This seems like a spot where most people would intuitively think my opponent has the range advantage, whereas in game, I felt like I had such a strong read on V's tendencies that I was able to put him on an extremely narrow range, which wasn't very strong on this board.

You're giving me way too much credit for being able to organize my thoughts and do complex calculations in my head in the heat of the moment. I've mostly been compensating for my inability to run the numbers mentally by trying to rein in my aggressive tendencies, as a way to avoid over-bluffing or over-playing my value hands.

This adventure in aggression notwithstanding, recently it seems like I replaced my old over-bluffing, over-valuing and loose-calling leaks with new leaks - betting too thin for value and missing obvious value bets. I've also made some nitty folds recently, though probably still not enough.

I'm still trying to dial everything in.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Yes correct, the majority of bluffs in any given spot are in theory indifferent - 0 ev usually. The implication is that the purpose in theory of bluffing is to ensure you get action on your value hands.

Of course in reality we can have reads that can make a bluff massively plus ev.

This is no excuse to be a pussy and not fire off stacks in the right times.

Study every major bluff you make or considered making.

First do a manual calculation using some basic software like poker stove, count the combos he has, estimate the combos he’ll fold and work out the bet sizing math.

Half pot bet has to fold 1/3rd put to make money
Full pot half the time
1.5x pot 60%
2x pot 66.7%
3x pot 75%

List the combos you think he’ll fold/call. Use some principle to deal with uncertainty’s.

Now open the spot in gtowiz. Go through the ranges on previous streets and make sure you understand those strategies. Maybe you realise you’re way outta line already, or how strong villain actually is. It will also give you a better feel for what villains get to the river range is and how it deviates from a gto range.

Observe the ev of the bluff in gto, then compare the folding range. Is he folding more/less? Is he gonna start overfolding this spot if I don’t bluff? Does that matter in this case?

Now revise your initial calculation.

Do this for every spot and next year you’ll have amazing intuitive feel for it.

You have just king-high, you block the nuts, and both flush draws missed? Yes, this is a slam-dunk fist-pump jam! You will literally never arrive at the River with a worse hand in this spot!

I like everything about this hand—KQ with a club is a perfect 3-barrel bluffing hand—with the exception of the flop check-raise. I would much prefer to just bet-bet-bet here. Your check-raise only serves to narrow Villain’s range, and doing that on a board where he has a nut advantage is…quite bad. You wouldn’t check-raise two red kings on a 9c8c5s flop—you’d just bet them right out—so you shouldn’t check-raise your bluffs either.

So yeah. If you’d bet-bet-bet with this hand and this run-out—A+, no notes, perfectly played. But with the flop check-raise….I still think it’s a River jam, but you’ve put yourself in a much worse spot, unnecessarily. He has a much narrower range this way, that’s much less likely to fold. But you’re getting a good price on a bluff, and the small size of your flop check-raise means you could keep in some of his AsXs hands that can call-call-fold (in addition to his missed club draws), so yeah, still going for it. But not as happily!

Before I give the reveal, I want to address the comments about my flop x/r.

It's an unusual line, one I'll rarely take, except in very specific situations. When I take this line, it's extremely unusual for me to triple-barrel as a bluff, or bet thin for value on the river.

Before I take this line, I'll ask myself the following questions. The answers I'm looking for are in parentheses. Maybe folks here can sanity check my reasoning.

1. Has V been flat-calling a lot of my pre-flop raises, probably light, especially in position? (yes)

2. Has V been sticky post-flop, calling c-bets and turn barrels, putting opponents in difficult spots when they don't improve by the river? (yes)

3. Do I think V over-estimates his own abilities, and/or underestimates mine? (yes)

4. Do I think V is the type to get tricky, and/or is he going to see my flop check as the green-light to bet, either for value with a worse or marginal-strength hand, or as a bluff? (yes)

5. Is my hand very likely to improve? (no)

6. Am I going to be comfortable going for three streets of value, or barreling three streets as a bluff, if I start out c-betting flop? (no)

7. Has V ever seen me x/r flop as the pre-flop aggressor? (no)

8. Do I mind if V checks back, and I don't get to x/r? (no)

9. Is my opponent the type to spaz when I x/r, and start shoveling money into the pot with a worse hand for value, or as a bluff? (yes/maybe)

10. If the answer to the above question is no, and I think he'll only 3B with strong value, if not nutted hands, am I prepared to fold to a 3B? (yes)

11. Is my opponent very likely to have very many really strong hands here? (no)

12. If I my opponent folds and I show a bluff, is that likely to tilt him? (yes)

13. If my opponent 3B's and I fold a big hand face up, is that likely to tilt him? (yes)

14. Regardless of how this turns out, is my x/r likely to make V think twice about calling my pre-flop raises and flop c-bets light? (yes)

15. If V calls my x/r, am I prepared to barrel or give up on the turn, whichever seems correct? (yes)

16. If I just c-bet, then check turn, is V likely to bomb it? (yes)

17. Do I want opponent to bomb turn if I check? (no)

17. Are we deep enough for me to get max value if I do happen to improve? (yes)

18. If I x/r flop, and barrel turn, is my opponent likely to check back his marginal strength hands on river? (yes)

19. If the answer to the above question is no, am I prepared to make a disciplined fold or a hero call facing a big river bet? (yes)

20. Is the pot small enough on the flop to make my x/r +EV without me having to risk having to fold to a 3B after betting a big portion of my stack? (yes).

If I can answer most, if not all of those questions the way I want to, I'll go for the x/r on the flop. Otherwise, I'll just take a more standard line of c-betting, check-fold, or check-call.

Thanks for all the replies and insights here. I honestly don't know if I should be proud or embarrassed of how I played this one, but here goes...

Reveal:

Just realized I have two 17's in the post above, and I forgot one:

22. If I x/r flop and have to fold to a 3B, is that going to cost me less than c-betting flop and barreling turn, just to fold to a turn raise or river bet when I check? (yes)

I have not read the result yet.

As played I would give up. I don't like having the Qc. You want him to have AcQc, KcQc, QcTc. I think it would already be close if you had no clubs. This is just sort of my heuristic though. I ran a solve with your sizings and check raise was a low frequency 0 EV play, turn also low frequency (although solver would prefer using a larger sizing with range and when using a larger size, does not prefer this hand). Having arrived at the river super low frequency with this hand, solver now pure shoves this hand. It is all pretty close. It boils down to if he will fold JJ, let alone Tx and 9x hands. Not having Qc would give me a little boost in confidence that he might fold enough and that I am not overbluffing.

Pre is a tad too loose this deep vs and EP 4x raise in a raked game, but we've all been there. It's not the end of the world.

On the flop, villain might be capped pre, but he is uncapped on this flop. He can probably have all the sets, likely can have top 2, or flopped straight. Their halfish pot sizing in my mind somewhat weights them more towards protection bets, but I wouldn't rule out slow plays. Flop is a good illustration as to why we don't want this many offsuit hands 3betting an EP open. You could have so many hands with club draws to bluff here, along with AK, AQ, 1 club (AJo if you have it but also too loose pre). We are better off check folding our hand at this point. We will have way too many bluffs, although technically at very low frequency your play could be okay.

I am all for bluffing too much when we think we will be given too much credit, but this board isn't the kind of board I would go crazy on. I would rather have total air like 7h6h on AK2r to tripple barrel all in than than think about overbluffing this board.

Turn is okay after picking up the gutshot. I think the sizing is too small though. I would stick to something standard like 75% pot. You want them to fold, right?

One miscellaneous thought, I don't like staring away at a wall. This looks a little bluffy. I personally prefer picking a card or place on the table to look at and do the exact same thing with bluff or value.

Ok, read the result. Good for you for making the biggest bluff you ever made. I did think it was close. Honestly, I think it is overstated how a larger bet is sometimes seen as a bluff. When the spr is a bit over 1 on the river, my go to sizing on bluffs is jamming. Every once in a while you here the, "I thought why did he bet so big, so I called," speech but in my experience, people also puke, sigh, and tank fold a lot when they face the 1-1.5x pot jam on the river with some bluff catcher too.

Personally I think the story is a bit more credible when you bet the turn larger and jam the river. Like, you're going to half pot the turn with 2 flush draws out there and on the biggest brick ever you're going full pot? But hey, it worked.

OP, I don't really wanna sound like a dick (but I probably do), but you might wanna try and cut back on your walls of text. You are by far the wordiest poster I've ever seen on 2+2, it's actually kind of bizarre.

I mean, who’s even reading all of it? I thought I liked reading these threads, but if they're like this, it's just exhausting. It's literally wearing me out.

About the hand, I think you should just fold pre against the described villain, and I don't particularly like post-flop either, especially the check/raise. But I'm not sure how I would wanna play it. I wanna say give up on the flop, but I'm not certain if we should with the Qc. This is the kind of hand I could see myself get into trouble with too. And then afterwards hate myself because of it.

Thank you for running this one through the solver. I'm embarrassed to admit I haven't used solvers at all yet.

I tend to play intuitively. Sometimes I'll make plays that work out, but I can't figure out why they worked out or what my intuition was telling me until later.

I'm encouraged to learn that the solver approves (?) my check-raise, albeit at a very low frequency. This is definitely a very-low frequency play for me.

I admit I was a little lost while thinking about my turn bet sizing. Yes, obviously I want him to fold, but I was also thinking I didn't want to risk too much on a bluff, and that if I had thick value, I wouldn't want to blow V off his hand with a big turn bet after I x/r'd flop and he called, so I might not need to go huge.

I also got caught up thinking that my hand was $hlt, but I was heavily weighting him towards JJ, and a J on the river would be amazing, so maybe I should split the baby, bet a little more than half pot, and keep enough behind that I could bet huge on the river, for value on a K, Q or J, or more likely, as a bluff on a brick.

I'm also encouraged the solver likes a shove if we get to the river this way. I admit I was probably over-thinking the river bet sizing by that point. I was a little worried that I may have under-estimated his starting stack, and a jam could possibly stack me (as opposed to merely crippling me, erasing all my hard-fought profit after being stuck early on, and putting me on tilt).

This one was very read-dependent. I realize this may not make sense, but in game, I really thought he had JJ, and I was thinking he might level himself into hero-calling if I jammed, but something slightly less than pot would look too much like value, and not enough like a bluff.

Most people just call me "Doc", or Chris. OP is fine.

Sorry about the walls of text. You don't sound like a dick.

I have ADHD, racing thoughts, and I type about 100 words per minute. It just sort of happens. I'll try to keep it shorter in the future.