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NL 1/3 - QTs NL 1/3 - QTs

10-29-2014 , 11:47 PM
Effective stacks are $300

UTG (300) looks like a average recreational player, quite passive.

UTG+1 (300) is a young asian kid, he is aggressive but not crazy aggressive.

Hero gets QT on the button.

UTG limps, UTG +1 limps, MP limps, HJ raises to 7, CO calls, Hero calls on the button, Blinds call.

Flop ($56)
J J 9
Blinds check, UTG bets 20, UTG+1 calls, HJ and CO folds, Hero calls, Blinds fold.

Turn ($116)
J J 9 4
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets 35, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River ($221)
J J 9 4 5
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets 50, Hero?

Can I raise here or should I just call? I still have around 200 behind after the call.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 12:41 AM
Just flat. There are more combos of Kxss and Axss in their ranges than smaller flushes, there are some (not a whole lot) of boat combos, and worse hands aren't guaranteed to call. Even headsup I'd just flat.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 01:00 AM
Raise flop. Raise turn. Raise river.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 08:30 AM
Raising flop, GG turn.

as played just call OTR :/
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 09:22 AM
Hero's image is...?????
Hero looks like...????
Hero has tabled....???

With a good image, raising pre is better than limping. If your image is tarnished, then limping is fine.

We flopped epic gin...an oesfd (with effective stacks at 100 BB's, I don't care that the board has already paired). It's time to start shoveling money into the pot. Raise flop, blast/shove turn.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 12:01 PM
I also call preflop. The raise size is lol cheap and obviously we're going to end up eleventeen ways (unless someone was limp/reraising), so I'm taking a cheapish flop on the Button with a nice multiway hand here.

I would also just call the flop. We've seen a donker into the world plus a call, so even though the bet is cheap, this is still strong. None of our draws are too the nuts, plus we could even be drawing ~dead on this paired board, so even though we have a monster looking OESFD and pot is worth winning, I think I'm fine with the passive route here. We can evaluate the turn/river and hopefully figure out what to do.

I like our turn call. Again, we could be dead to many hands, but it's also possible we are winning. The price is cheap and hopefully we can figure out what best to do on the river, plus we still have 2 magic outs if behind.

I would just call the river. Yes, there are some worse hands that will probably be able to call a raise, but not a whole heckuva lot of them. Dude did just bet 3way on the river, which is strong. Plus a call might encourage an overcall for the other guy with a worse hand.

My guess is you'll get flamed for your passive play, but I'm quite cool with the whole hand if you called the river.

ETA: To those who want to raise the flop, the only reason to raise monster draws is for our added FE. There's a decent chance someone has a J, which means not only is our hand equity worse (since we have fewer outs) but our FE is pretty much 0.

GmrpassiveG
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 12:02 PM
Flat the river bet.

Both V's limped early, then got about 9:1 on calling the small pre flop raise from HJ. To me, their ranges are huge going to the flop.

The passive rec player donked the flop, then checked the turn, but then called the aggressive kid's turn bet with the third spade on the board. Passive guys like to be trappy when they flop a monster so his flop donk doesn't fit that, but neither does an EP passive guy normally donk the flop with a low flush draw (the only really good hand we beat on the river). Jx fits a passive guy happy to bet trips on the flop then scared of the potential flush on the turn.

UTG+1's turn and river bets of 1/3 and 1/4 pots look like value for a decent hand, or could be a monster offering enticing odds to flushes that got there on the turn. (Hmm, that's us.)

Call.

That will close the action for us, because rec-passive guy will likely call down with his decent hand, hopefully an extra $50 for us, and if he shoves we're going to be bailing out regardless of what UTG+1 does then.

I guess that's a long-winded way of saying if we raise we'll fold worse and get called or raised by better.

Last edited by alienbogey; 10-30-2014 at 12:06 PM. Reason: Clarity
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 04:51 PM
Great, thanks for the comments.

Result below:

Spoiler:
I called and UTG folded. UTG+1 had a single J so I won the pot. I instantly started thinking I may have lost value and thought I would post to see if I was being too conservative by just calling.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 05:02 PM
Overall, we ended up with the 21st nuts (not exactly a monster) and won 30x our preflop investment.

Gwedidfine,imoG
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 08:39 PM
Wow bunch of nits in this thread. This is live low stakes where players do not fold hands. Villains at this level may even realize they are behind and will call just because lol pot odds and it gives them something to complain about. This is such an easy raise/fold spot on the river. If you want to maximize your winrate you have to go for thin value but honestly this isn't even that thin of a spot because villain's range isn't that strong given his weakish bets.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 09:11 PM
Grunch:

Turn is a raise 100% of the time for value imo.
River is a raise also.
If we raise the turn, we might end up shoving the river.
If we don't raise the turn, then a river shove might be too strong for some villains, so we should prolly just ~min raise on the river.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 09:52 PM
I agree with #6 response here. All these clowns who think you should be raising T and R are wrong. V isn't showing much strength so you don't want to blow him off his hand. And sometimes he has you beat. So be happy he's betting small and scoop the pot when he's doesn't have you drawing dead. You played it fine. Just call the river, stack your chips and move on.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 10:56 PM
2 totally different answers from 2 posters I both respect, GG and IRTM. Guess the answer is neither is wrong or right, I see arguments for both lines and I like both of them, to me it would just come down to who's in the pot with me, images and stack sizes so not actually being there is kinda hard to pick a side. I probably just made no sense.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 11:19 PM
There is a correct answer because one decision is more +EV than the other. Just because you respect someone doesn't mean they don't make mistakes or have leaks.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-30-2014 , 11:28 PM
Ok agreed, one line has to be more +ev than the next, then what is the answer, has anyone stoved it yet.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerIsTooEasy
Wow bunch of nits in this thread. This is live low stakes where players do not fold hands. Villains at this level may even realize they are behind and will call just because lol pot odds and it gives them something to complain about. This is such an easy raise/fold spot on the river. If you want to maximize your winrate you have to go for thin value but honestly this isn't even that thin of a spot because villain's range isn't that strong given his weakish bets.
You're going to raise/fold the river when we arrive at the river with a ~PSB left? If we're raising the river, the only raise is a shove, imo.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
You're going to raise/fold the river when we arrive at the river with a ~PSB left? If we're raising the river, the only raise is a shove, imo.
I think the question that is also important is what range will he call a shove with and what range will call a small value bet with?

And if he only shoves with a full house or better then why would ever call?

We can debate what his ranges are, but calling when we are beat just because we got to river with a pot sized bet is stupid.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 11:22 AM
So we're raising the river to $150 and folding for the remaining $88 in a $609 pot (7:1)? If opponent is bad enough to pay off a raise with a worse hand, isn't he also bad enough to ship a worse hand? I like calling and encouraging an overcall so much more than that plan.

FWIW, I don't hate a more aggro line on the turn if we're up against payoff monkeys who can't fold a J. But as someone else said, I think this is really opponent dependent. And again, we don't exactly have a monster here (seriously, 21st nuts).

GcluelessNLnoobG
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
So we're raising the river to $150 and folding for the remaining $88 in a $609 pot (7:1)? If opponent is bad enough to pay off a raise with a worse hand, isn't he also bad enough to ship a worse hand? I like calling and encouraging an overcall so much more than that plan.

FWIW, I don't hate a more aggro line on the turn if we're up against payoff monkeys who can't fold a J. But as someone else said, I think this is really opponent dependent. And again, we don't exactly have a monster here (seriously, 21st nuts).

GcluelessNLnoobG
You're not disagreeing with me.
You're simply saying you think his range is different.
If thats the case then yes we can consider calling.
I think he bets/3bets the river with a hand we beat less than 10% of the time. So I can raise/fold here if he will call with JT+ and only shoves full houses.

I'm not saying I would find my self in this spot, just saying that calling just because we are getting 7:1 is a stupid idea.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerIsTooEasy
There is a correct answer because one decision is more +EV than the other. Just because you respect someone doesn't mean they don't make mistakes or have leaks.

I disagree. I believe that it's okay to give up a SMALL edge sometimes. There are many reasons one might do so. Just a few are: to avoid high variance, to avoid going on tilt or just feeling like u want to puke, if you're running really bad, which is related to last one.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 02:28 PM
I think the line is fine given the great price given pre and on the flop. I'm not exactly looking to try and force folds on a paired board even with the open ended strt flush draw. We can make a profitable call and minimize variance. River is just s flat and hope to first to act call as well.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 05:42 PM
Biggest problem with flatting the flop is getting paid if we hit.
With OESD+FD+minor FE at this limit vs some people, its a raise OTF, Gii OTT.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
10-31-2014 , 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
You're going to raise/fold the river when we arrive at the river with a ~PSB left? If we're raising the river, the only raise is a shove, imo.
Not at all. If you min-raise the river and are getting called by worse more than 50% of the time then it's +EV to raise. Villain is never bluff raising over top. If villain was completely clueless and wouldn't understand that we are repping super strong then yeah I might ship but vs the vast majority of villains I have faced (ie over 95%) it would be a super easy fold if they ship over your raise.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote
11-01-2014 , 12:48 AM
grunch

raise fold turn.

raise to 120, value from all small flushes and Jx.

If we get callers depending on card we can value bet 120 again or check it back.
NL 1/3 - QTs Quote

      
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