I guess everyone's different. My bankroll is solely for Poker and I don't take anything out of it, just build it to play higher, so I don't have any "life" pressure on it. When I take a shot I want to immerse myself in that new world. I don't want to play 60% in my old comfortable world, I want to get used to the new one likely with more aggression, skill and more money with larger bets. Yes definately set a stop loss and drop back if you hit it, but why fanny around still playing your old stakes? I give myself a slightly bigger shot than some have suggested to try and have a better chance to settle in and get used to the changes.

I have used a 30bi model as the mid point setting a level. Drop to 15 bi at that level and drop to the level below and you're at the mid point with 30 bi. Rise to 45 bi move up. This gives you a 7.5bi shot at the new level, that if you lose drops you back to the previous level at the mid point 30bi to start again.

Used it online to rise from nl25 to nl200 (and back to nl100 after Black Friday made the games tougher) Live slightly different as levels don't always double but you can adjust it if it suits your style.

Not sure how helpful this will be as I play in Florida and I'm pretty sure the games here are much different than anywhere else but I'll give my story anyway...

As soon as the laws changed here to allow normal limits I started playing 1/2 every day, over the first 6 months or so I was running at about 10/hr, I don't really keep a separate poker roll or anything and I don't do anything else for money so I was just spending whatever I made. Eventually I was tired of 1/2 and just decided to take the 2/5 shot. My bankroll was pretty much the same as when I had started at 1/2, around 8k.

I saw almost no difference in the games. They play almost exactly the same as everyone at 1/2, maybe they are somewhat looser overall but not really enough to require me to play differently. I played super tight when I first moved up because I didn't want my br to take a huge hit, ran hot the first 2 months and never had to move down.

I think anyone in a similar situation should be taking shots, there really isn't much variance in low limit cash games unless you're creating by the way you play. If that's the case, just change it if you happen to take a shot and lose. If you're living off 1/2 it's really hard to ever build up and move up normally. However, once you hit an upswing during a shot you'll probably never have to move down.

Here's my situation

Poker roll & life roll are segregated from each other

Poker Bankroll - 4k

Life Roll - 10-12k

Monthly nut - 1k (house paid for i have no vices/commitments or much responsibilities for that matter)

Monthly income - 2500-3500

My original plan is wait until my "poker" roll is 10k and than mix in 2/5.

I've took shots at an underground game which actually runs tougher then the casino so I'm not sure why I'm so hesitant.

My main reasons to wait are

1- Very little cash game experience. Online mttsng/mtt grinder refugee so pretty lolbad when it comes to deepish stack postflop (100bb+)

2- Even less LIVE POKER EXPERIENCE. I took April 15th-Dec 2011 pretty much off from poker. Grinded on merge for a few months after black friday but for the most part was a hiatus from poker.

I started online with a $45 deposit , grinded from the micros ($1.75 18mans to being a regular at $60/109 level , while also playing MTT's <$60 , $36 180s) So i kind of have that build from the ground up mentality and feel like i should prove to myself , by putting in the hours , that i can beat 1/2 at a decent rate before moving up.

I guess what I'm asking is if I'm being to nitty? Should i take 3-4 buyins from the life roll and take a shot? After seeing my buddy , who has 0 concept of BRM (he'll buyin short to 2/5 with his rent money) , run a short buyin of $400 to $3000 in the span of 8 hours , i feel like i may be doing myself a disservice by slumming it out at 1/2?

Than again I'm still pretty bad and i don't think getting a couple hundred hours experience+a few months of studying and fixing leaks is really such a bad thing since when i do move up I'll be better prepared.

bah sorry delete post

Slumming it out at 1/2??? If the game is beatable and not out of your roll, then you play it...no such thing as slumming it out.

Personally, I like the way you have organized your BR. You're in a position where you could take a shot, but then you're placing pressure on your Life Roll. Given your history of grinding online, I would prefer to see you stick to your plan, but with the option of taking a shot when you reach $7500, with 5BI on 2/5. (I hate hearing these stories about guys taking a shot with 1-2Bi and getting coolered, then dropping back down with their tails between their legs. At least with 5 BI, you'll have enough time to feel comfortable and get a real taste for the game; it's unlikely you will get coolered that many times, so at the very least you'll gain something from analysing the experience).

If you took a shot now with 5BI, then I believe you would be playing a little scared (just imagine, if, tomorrow night, your 1/2 BR was $1500 rather than $4000, you would play differently ... be less forthright, like someone on a 10 BI downswing).

However, if you find you start playing differently on 1/2 now because you keep thinking about taking-a-shot ... well then the matter is a little more complicated. In this case (which sounds like it's already happening), maybe you could just sit-in and play ultra-tag, and imagine how you would play if more rolled, for an hour or so, go back down to 1/2, think about the adjustments you might need to make to your game, go back up to 2/5 a few days later, play ultra TAG, go back down again and so. This is a kind of simulated taking-a-shot approach and will at least allow to get comfortable with the 2/5 environment over a longer period. It would require a LOT of discipline, especially preflop, which, you seem to have, given your history. Keep in mind, though, that you'll soon develop a nit-image problem with the Regs, if you do this too often, so try and keep a low profile

lol i played 2/5 tonight. game was very soft although a bit tougher than 1/3 and I rivered an overset when my overpair got cracked and we were AI on the turn and the guy to my left said he folded a Q so it was the case Q.

Easy game.

Imagine taking an indefinite break from the game for months or a full year and coming back with 30BIs for 1-2(3) and when you take that occasional shot at 2-5 that is worth around 5-7% you will not being scared at all...just a thought...

What's risk of ruin for a 3k bankroll at $2/$4 with $100-$300 max BI vs 90% donk/weaktight players and 10% competent players when you are in that 10%, when practicing good table selection and mainly focusing on just playing your best and most disciplined game whilst playing?

If all you ever have is 3k (you cash out your profits) you will 100% go broke at some point

I would like to thank you for your post about shot taking. I was like many other 1/2 players grinding away until I felt I was rolled enough to move up. I have played 2/5 three times now since I read this post. Each game was obsurdly soft like 1/2 and most players are more spewy and loose. The table always has money on it instead of 1/2 where hardly anyone buys in for the full amount. The max buy in is 500 instead of 300 so it really doesnt thin out any bad players. The bigger gamblers want to make more so they drift towards the higher games. I buy in for 300 since my roll is only about 2.5k at the moment. I tightened up my range and was quite patient observing players long enough to get it in at the right time. I understand variance has played some role in my success as of late. I do see more players making tons more mistakes than I would which reassures me that in the long term it is a good game. If I go broke so be it. 2.5k or 4k for a bankroll isnt so much in the grand scheme of things. You can make 1k easily on a good night where making that at 1/2 is few and far between. Bottom line: if you crush 1/2 then you can crush 2/5. The big name pros all took shots to become where they are today. Many of them also went broke but good players will always get back in the game. Take your shot.

Why do you make these tilting comments and never back up any of your claims with anything concrete?

Because there is so much evidence that proves my point that it is utterly useless for me to go any further.

Use google. Use the search function.

Your lack of knowledge is not my problem (sorry)

Then say it. Say that you can't cite anything and that the person you're responding should just google or search.

Which is basically saying nothing. Why are you even posting?

Because you need to find the information for yourself

I'd suggest thinking for yourself instead of wanting me to think for you

But because you are incapable of doing that here you go

Then why did you even respond?

It's ok to not post if you have decided to add "nothing" to the question.

Haha, this is what tough love looks like. I'm done responding to your troll comments though, the person who should be questioning why they post and what they actually add to the conversation can be found in the mirror. I'm not trying to be a dick I'm just being honest. He asked a question and I gave him a factually correct answer and if you want to expand upon it, feel free. If you want to make a counter argument, feel free. If you want to be a dick, feel free.

Your problems are yours alone, not mine. I wish you the best but if you think I'm wrong then form a counter argument. The facts are out there and they are right in front of your face and I am a busy guy and can't nit pick every single thing, its like you ask me a simple algebra question and you want me to begin by proving every theorem that backs up the steps. I don't have the time for that and if you want proof that my steps are correct (or to prove they are incorrect) then that is on you, not me.

DUCY?

This dude understands the conversation in this thread. Good job, mistanator!

You have the stereotypical "I have played solid online poker for so long that I am too good for LLSNL" attitude.

The guy asked a very simple question.

Instead of responding to what he is asking, which hopefully is more than what you think personally (some leeway if your name is in green and/or have established yourself as a respected reader, which neither is true for you).

You're right in one regard, if people are too lazy to search on their own, why are any of us doing it for them? Then ok, don't post a response.

But what the hell is this:

Even worse:

Well gee, thanks a lot for adding nothing to the question.

11t is correct.
your risk of ruin is 99%.
i thought this was common knowledge.

of course, if you run like God, and grow your roll, and then manage yourself, and your roll properly, then you may greatly reduce your risk of ruin
(this is assuming your a winning player).
but then you dont have a 3k roll anymore, so the debate would be over then,

what ive always thought, and i could be wrong, is that if youre facing serious risk of ruin, you might as well put yourself in a position to win more than you have to lose.

say youre comfortable risking X amount per day; then just buy in shorter in 2/5, and give yourself a chance to win something.

one thing thats great about a short roll is that its not a big deal losing it; its more easilty replaced than a big one.
losing a big bankroll is a disaster.
this is coming from someone who has both busted short rolls, and has come close to busting a 40 BI roll through life-tilt, and not taking long breaks that were obv needed at the time.

It is common knowledge

My point was more toward 11t's junk postings than anything else.

To answer the actual question, and yes there is a close to definitive answer as oppose to what we think:

http://www.poker-tools-online.com/riskofruin.html

Oh btw, it isn't 100%.

wow, thnx.

this is epic; i have seen s$@yt like this 4 sit-n-gos, but never thought it applied to cash.

my iphone app, Poker journal, now calculates your standard deviation (which in itself is interesting, but couldnt figure out how to apply the info.)

http://www.mathisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html

http://www.analytictech.com/mb313/sd.htm

comforting to know my risk of ruin is 1% based on 2 years + of data.
of course, his isnt totally accurate if you pay bills out of your roll (if youre a pro)

one thing though, where do you put your life-tllt factor into the risk of ruin calculator?

Life tilt is built into your winrate and SD, so they're included in the calc. A single, peak, (massive) life tilt event isn't included in the equation, but you couldn't include it until you could calculate its effect on winrate, by which point you're probably broke or past itanyway.