This post is directed towards 1/2(3) NL players who log 90+ hours a month of play at their card rooms and are winning poker players.

Most of theses types of players fall into two subcategories:

Group 1) Has a bankroll over $2,500 and redistributes a % of winnings back into bankroll. Their goal is to grow their bankroll and eventually move up.

Group 2) Has a bankroll between $1,000 and $3,000. Rarely redistributes a % winnings back into their bankroll. They are content with grinding 1/2(3) NL.

If you look around your card room, you probably recognize the above type of player or are one yourself. In a sense those type of players are the best in the pool at 1/2(3)NL. I would say there are at least a handful of these types at most large card rooms.

The kick is a year from now, most of these players will be bust and replaced with a new crop of 20 hour / week (or more) 1/2(3)NL grinders. While only, maybe 1 or 2, sometimes none, actually move up to 2/5NL+ or even remain a fixture at 1/2(3)NL.

The reason they never last is because they are not aggressive with their bankrolls. They do not take shots at 2/5NL soon enough.

The deck is stacked against the 1/2(3)NL grinder.

To realize why grinding the 1/2(3)NL is a poor idea it is important to realize that while $1,000-$3,000ish has a low to moderate risk of ruin at 1/2(3)NL. It has a HIGH risk of ruin in the game of life.

"But my poker bankroll is separate from my life bankroll. I'm financially secure. Plus as I win if I'm in Group 1, I'm adding to my bankroll"

No, you're not! If you were financially secure, you wouldn't be playing 1/2(3)NL.

**Obviously retirees, and some 1/2(3)NL players with solid jobs are the exception.

Think of how most live small stakes bankrolls originate - it isn't typically from working up a bankroll grinding a smaller game. Typically an arbitrary ammount of disposable income was set aside for poker, and early positive variance coupled with good play has allowed your bankroll to grow to a point where you have an acceptable level of risk.

If you are a player from Group 2, your poker winnings are constantly going into your life bankroll. Which means, you are in a financial position where a life event could wipe out your poker bankroll. This is in my opinion the biggest cause of winning 1/2(3)NL players never moving on, life poops on them and they loose their bankroll.

When a player from Group 2 busts it is rare you see them again consistently. They are unlikely to ever return to being a winning regular at 1/2(3)NL.

A player from Group 1, is slightly better prepared. As they have the ability to invest their winnings back into their poker bankroll. So obviously, they are more financially secure and have a larger life bankroll. However, high rake, negative variance, and forming bad habits (auto piloting, random leaks in your play, etc). Are going to wipe out most of the players in Group 1. The high rake relative to the stakes, the grind, and the lack of improving and working hard. Will kill most of Group 1.

When a player from Group 1 busts, you will sometimes see them back again. As they can replenish their poker bankroll. However, they quickly will fall back into old habits, and tread water for too long again and bust.

The thing to realize with 1/2(3)NL is that your bankroll is not a lot of money. **** happens.

The way for a player from either group 1 or 2 to survive 1/2(3)NL is to NOT play it often. Shot take at 2/5NL aggressively.

Here are some numbers:

$2,500 poker bankroll
A 15 bb / 100 hands win rate at 2/5NL (~$18.75/hour)
A 120 bb / 100 hands STD
You have a 35% risk of ruin.
--------> With a $3,500 bankroll, a 20% risk of ruin.
--------> With a $5,000 bankroll, a 13% risk of ruin.
--------> With a $10,000 bankroll, a 1.5% risk of ruin.

It is my opinion that winning 1/2(3)NL players should be taking a $500 1 buy in shot at 2/5NL every time their bankroll is at $2,500. 2/5NL should be their game of choice whenever the bankroll is above $2,500.

$2,000 poker bankroll
A 20 bb / 100 hands win rate at 1/2 NL (~$10/hour)
a 120 bb / 100 hands STD
You have a %6 risk of ruin.

Your 2/5NL shot has a good chance of being successful. If you are a good player you have a strong chance to have continued success at 2/5NL.

Some run hot at 2/5NL has the potential to massively change the financial situation of the 1/2(3)NL grinder. The risk of shot taking at 2/5NL whenever the bankroll is in excess of $2,500 has very low risk, as even at $2,000 the risk of ruin at 1/2(3)NL is still very low.

The biggest hurdle small stakes live players face is not putting themselves in a position to handle life crapping on them. The goal of the small stakes player should be to reach a financial point where you feel your poker bankroll is large enough that it is protected from all but the most severe of life beats. It is simply too hard to attain this level of security playing 1/2(3)NL. Aggressively shot taking at 2/5NL is lower risk than many players realize and is essential to the survivability of the small stakes poker player.

I hope this thread motivates a lot of the 1/2(3) NL "pros" to be more aggressive with their bankroll. Take that 1 buy in shot at $2,500 and report how it went here.

Cool story bro

OP

I really like the sentiment and thoughts in your post. I was just thinking at lunch that it's time for me to take a shot at 2/5.

But...I do think your numbers are a little low. Do you really think it's sensible to take a shot at the higher stake with 20% of your bankroll?

It just seems to place way too much emphasis on the cards you're going to be dealt in that first session and I'd say a load of people aren't going to be playing their A game knowing they are one bad beat from having to stand up.

I would think you would want at least double the Bank (ie 10 buy ins) before taking a shot both. (I'm pretty sure most people recommend 20 which seems too much to me)

Whenever I sit down I have a minimum 3 max buy ins. I always stand up if I lose 3, because I don't think I can play great poker anymore, but many's the time I've dropped 2 buy ins pretty quickly and come back into profit.


again, I love the thought in your post and I'm going to take the advice....but I'm going to double the buy ins sizes.

thanks for the post

Hahaha Im the sterotypical group 1 player you just described. I like your post a lot, its very motivational. However, im going to have to agree with what wrath said. Putting 20% of your bankroll on the line in any given hand is probaly not the greatest idea. I have played 2/5 before and I gotta say, it plays a lot like 1/2 so there is room to make a lot of money. The problem is that even the donks get lucky sometimes. My question is whats your plan through your session? Do you have a certain amount youre trying to make before quitting or do you just play it out like you would any 1/2 session and quit when youre getting tired or not playing your best? I will be your first ginea pig on this project and try it out tonight. I only have a $3,000 roll but I will bring $500 and play 2/5 and post on this thread when I get back.

I would have posted most of feel wraths sentiments if I grunched this.... Echoing further of what he said, 2.5k is far too small. How about 8 buyins for a 2 buyin shot at 2/5? I think that is much more reasonable, and it is also very feasible for a 1/2 player to grind up thta extra 1-2k be reduce the risk. Going broke is s disgusting feeling, and 20% of your roll is a bit scary to most. 10-15% is more reasonable for aggro shot taking imo. I would think at least half the "grinders" taking that "shot" at 2/5 with 2.5k would play scared money, and it would affect their winning potential to actually get that big score to continue on with.

I think people who handle short term bad variance tolerance can greatly benefit from your post. However, those who can't (the majority) would bleed their roll quicker than ever imagined and become broke after 1-2 bad runs.

Sounds like you are the type that can handle aggro broll mgmt. It's not for everyone. I commend the time you put into this post, and +1 many of the comments in OP

My bankroll is 6k+ and I only play 2/5 on saturday when the game is fishy. 12 buyins isn't enough for me to feel comfortable.

Helps me move up slower and makes me appreciate grinding more. My poker and life is somewhat seperate, not entirely.

FWIW to anyone who doesnt play 2/5, its nothing to be scared of. At my casino its softer than 1/2. The only difference I see is a smidge stronger postflop skills and better idea of odds, and paying off tighter in limped pots. Cannot bet/fold as easy and need to pot control against tough players on occasion.

True statement, moving up does not change.

OP what is your current situation btw? Are you playing a lot more $2/5 nowadays? If so, care to share your experiences?

As someone in Group 1, I think you are nuts. I have around $10K in my roll, and I am taking some shots at 2/5 now, but I would never think of it when I had $2,500, as the potential of losing 20% of my bankroll with one bad beat/cooler would suck. The risk I feel, outweighs the benefits. A 35% Risk of Ruin is just WAY TO HIGH.

Having every intention to move up is a great goal but BRM is one of the most important aspects in poker and you're off in that regard.

I'm a Group 1 player that's struggling with the move up to 2/5. I've been taking shots and put in over 100 hours at 2/5 and the swings just affect me more mentally sitting on around a 5K poker roll with well over 20K life roll to back it up if necessary. I suppose I'm just waiting for that one sick 500bb+ session at 2/5 to put my confidence and roll in the right place. I'm also trying my best to not ever have to touch my life roll for poker.

I would suggest every time you get up to 6 or 7k you take a 1k shot at 2/5 nl and if you run bad, drop down and grind it up till 8 or 9k, then take another shot etc...

the swings (or losses to be more clear....because I ain't scared of upswings!) is what holds me back as an occasional player - I logged 350 hours last year.

While I rarely (I think) make scared decisions, I still take the losses badly and I think that I'm not happy yet with the thought of dropping 3,5,7 buy ins through variance, coolers, bad reads, bad play etc at 2/5.

for me then, having a more built up roll is less about pure dollars as I'm pretty well set up in life, it's more about being able to detach myself more from the pain of the losing sessions at higher stakes

for this reason, I keep my bankroll in casino chips, which seems to help a lot.


great thread

What I think is important to take away is that at $2,000 and above, your risk of ruin at 1/2NL is very small, assuming you are a competent player.

So while yes you may be risking a large % of your bankroll on a 1 buy in shot at 2/5 NL. The risk is actually not that large, as the risk of ruin at 1/2NL doesn't change much between $2,000 and $2,500+. It's not like you are ever going to be in danger of busting your roll if you lose that $500. You still have $2k and that is more than enough to play 1/2NL without much risk.

So I don't understand the argument for bank roll management and being ultra conservative with regards to shot-taking. Especially between 1/2 and 2/5.

Your poker situation isn't much different with $2,000, $3,000, or $5,000 for the life of a 1/2(3) NL grinder. At $2,000 and above the risk of busting playing 1/2NL is so low that I think it is foolish to not be aggressively shot taking at 2/5NL with all excess money.

I don't have much experience with 1/2NL, I've been a 2/5NL, 2/5PLO and 5/10NL reg (30 or so hours week) for the past three years. However, over the years I've seen the revolving door of 1/2(3)NL players and very rarely do they have longevity and even more rare is seeing one of them successfully move into 2/5NL and beyond. They seem to just stay at 1/2(3)NL and then one day they are just gone.

I think with 1/2(3)NL the goal should be to get yourself a little safety net, it should never be your game.

Saving up 6k, 10k, whatever, seems absurd. You don't need anywhere near that much to try and become a fixture at 2/5NL. Playing 1/2(3)NL with a 6k roll is lunacy in my opinion. The idea of saving up a lump sum and then moving up, just seems so wrong to me.

**I'm not suggesting that you jump into 2/5NL as your main game with $2.5k roll and just that is it, I'm simply suggesting you play it every time you have over $2.5k, and when you get below $2.5k you drop back down to 1/2NL.

You guys with huge 1/2(3)NL rolls are not maximizing your potential. Your money is just sitting there. You are likely skilled enough to beat 2/5NL, it is a good investment to invest in yourself and always be taking shots. Your time is also valuable too, and you are wasting it spending so much time at 1/2NL.

We are gamblers by trade. Figure out your acceptable risk and get in the game. I just think the jump from 1/2(3) to 2/5 is blown so out of proportion and people are spending way to much time at 1/2 grinding, when they should be already moved up. The risk of ruin at 1/2NL is so low, that these large bankrolls people are sitting on are going to waste and you guys in my opinion are going to rot at 1/2NL.

I'm not trying to bash small stakes live players. I am simply trying to encourage the 1/2(3) NL grinders to take some shots at 2/5NL as I think it would be in your best interests and hopefully you guys can use this thread as motivation to take that shot.

Wow, I find this thought process quite insightful. Definitely kind of sheds a new light on my approach.

+1 well said Goldman.

Im bitching out btw lol sitting at a 1/2 table. While I agree its important to take risks, I have to agree with pay4myschool and say you should bring 2 buyins for your new stake. Ill take a shot when I get back up to 5k. To be continued....

let us know how it goes in this thread!! gl

The only thing I would say is that if you haven't played a ton of live poker, you should probably put the hours in at 1/2 to get somewhat familiar with the dynamics and to make sure you're actually as good as you think you are.

I just moved up to 2/5 about 50% of the time, but I made so many mistakes at 1/2 that I'm really glad I didn't move up earlier. I'm getting a much better sense of live dynamics, what live players do etc that can hopefully save me bigger $$ at 2/5 than I lost at 1/2 before I got it down. Plus I know that at least I'm not a losing player at 1/2 (i don't think) because I have the hours logged to show it.

Other point I'd make is that you don't have to move to 2/5 full time. I usually go Thursday-Saturday and play 1/2 on Thursday night, 1/2 Friday morning, 2/5 Friday night, and then warm up with 1/2 for like 2 hours on Saturday afternoon and then play 2/5 the rest of the night.

I'm not risking as much, I'm still logging the hours, and I'm hopefully making something from 1/2 which I can add to my bankroll that helps a little bit.

I appreciate your post Bo, but sitting on 6k is 12 500$ buyins.

I would not feel comfortable playing in non-optimal conditions, like I said before, I only play occasionally.

I'm obviously an online player who recently turned 21 and is transitioning to live, but I'm used to 30+ buyins so 12 seems insane. I understand online is much quicker/multitabling/etc. Not to mention I played 25nl online, so 500nl live is a pretty big money jump (lol its just chips!).

I play at Foxwoods/Mohegan sun, where the games are pretty much always running, and always decent, so I should probably be more aggressive, but the money effect is holding me back. Too scared of that 2k downswing. (33% of my BR, >20% of all my money).

goldmans point is that you have 1 buyin at 2-5 + 27.5 buyins at 1-2. NOT 12 BI at 2-5. You aren't worried about a large downswing at 2-5 because you aren't going to stick around there long enough to see it. You have plenty of 1-2 buyins to fall back on. Once you lose one 2-5 buyin, you move down.

And you simply look at that shot as a bad night aT 1-2 where you lost 2.5 buyins.

I'm always in favor of underrolled players moving up and playing bigger stakes.

gogogogogo

I have a 2k roll, but can easily replenish out of my paycheck. I have taken a shot at 3-5 before, and plan to do so again soon. I'll put my results here, too. Problem is that the closest regular 2-5 game is 90 minutes away.

So what would the cutoff point be where I should be moving down?

Believe me I understood that using his logic I am not glued to a 2-5 seat until I make a billion or go broke. I realize that.

The point is that taking just a 2BI shot at 2-5 is risking almost 20% of my bankroll, where I can grind 1/2 until I get to 20+ BI's and then take a 4 buyin shot. Make sense?

The point is not averting risk of ruin- it is managing the money I have earned. I would estimate my chance of going bust at 1-2 to be close to 0% (with a 6k roll). Honestly, the games are that bad.

Just need to use patience, grow my roll to 10k+ (20buyins), where I am more comfortable playing, and more comfortable losing.

(This is after coming off a +1.5k session at 2/5 about 3 nights ago as well, so maybe I am crazy.)