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Massive pot and action with pair + draw Massive pot and action with pair + draw

07-28-2015 , 11:01 AM
1/3, table has been fairly passive. Good amount of limp/calling pre, many limped pots, almost no 3bets pre. We are 9 handed.

V1 (SB): ($160) The whale and #1 mark at the table. Plays ATC pre, donks and triple barrels with bottom pair, top pair, a draw, or complete air.

V2 (UTG +1) (~$350) Seems somewhat competent and playing a decent PF range, capable of b/f. Only leak I've spotted is bet sizing tends to be terrible.

V3 (UTG +2) ($107) Fishy passive. Openly whining about how many times his pocket pairs, including middle ones, today have "gotten cracked." Recently tripled up by shoving $50 or so PF with A7s, has bled some back.

V4 (HJ) (~$400) TAG, and a competent one. Can b/f, plays a solid PF range, seems to understand position. Only player at the table aside from Hero who seems to be able to bet size correctly.

Hero (BTN) (covers) Unsure how table sees me. I've been playing a little tighter than usual tonight mostly from being card dead. Table has seen Hero show down in two spots:

Prior hand against V1 whale: Hero was on button, UTG opened to $11, 5 callers, Hero called with 56, V1 whale 3bet to $26, all call including Hero. Flop J 5 3, V1 shoves his remaining $100. All fold to Hero who calls, is flipping against whale's obvious KK and whale holds.

Another hand, there were 4 limpers to Hero in CO who had A4. Hero called, tightish chinese lady in SB raised to $15, all limpers call, Hero calls. Flop 2 3 6. Chinese lady checks, checks around to Hero who tries to buy the orphan pot for $50. Chinese lady check/shoves for $66 more, folds to Hero who is priced in against JJ. Hero binks a 5 on turn and wins.

OTTH:

V2 limps, V3 limps, V4 raises to $15. Hero looks at J T and calls knowing this hand is very likely to go multiway and without a reraise. V1 calls, BB folds, all limpers call.

Flop ($75) Q J 9

V1 leads $25. V2 flats. V3 shoves for $92. V4 tanks and calls, looks uncomfortable. Hero?
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 11:33 AM
Snap fold
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 11:37 AM
Easy fold. Not sure why this is even a question.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 11:39 AM
I don't really like it. We have middle pair with an oesd that is going to cost us an arm and a leg and with no FE, plus a passive guy shoving. fold
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 12:07 PM
Well, we're certainly not ahead right now with our middle pair. Our 2-pair outs would put a 4 card straight on the board, and we could be drawing to a chop against a made straight, in which case our trip outs are no good either.

I would fold this for sure.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 12:14 PM
yeah I love oesd, but I don't think there's enough money for it to be a profit, especially if you have likely chop situations. King Ten is also in everyone's range, and you could be way, way behind.

I'd fold reluctantly and frown
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 12:16 PM
snap folding everything except sets+ and maybe QJ. u are drawing dead to chop alot
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 12:21 PM
I think preflop is a bit debatable. The two fish (our most likely targets) are shortstacked, so we don't really have very good implied odds to play this against them. The deeper stacks we do have the implied odds, but they are also better players (not as likely to make much off them). It's also possible V3 might make his last stand again and shove all in. But, it's also possible we see a 5way pot in position on the world (although poor relative position to the raiser first to act) with a nice multiway hand (and also a bit of a gambooley/FOS image given the history hands which might work for us). I probably call too, but I don't think it's a fistpump.

I would fold the flop. If anyone else has a Tx OESD our immediate odds are cut in half. It's possible only our OESD outs are any good. V2 can reopen the action. We have no implied odds on our 4-to-a-straight OESD / high RIO odds against a better hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 12:24 PM
pre is fold. doesnt sound like ull get paid if u hit big except agaist shortie maybe.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 05:15 PM
I can understand and anticipated some comments on PF. If I weren't on the button, I would likely fold this. But having position on the world, and V1 likely to spew into the field, made me want to play more hands. Also, FYI, this is a timed game that shuts down at midnight and it was about 11:30 or so; there was certainly a limit in play as to how many chances I would get to stack these shorty fish.

I must admit I'm a bit surprised by the overwhelming opinion so far being fold the flop. I contemplated all three options: fold/call/shove, but was mostly deciding between call and shove.

I feel strongly that V4's range is capped at one pair - there is zero chance he would flat here with a set. V1's range is ATC, V2's range I would imagine is weighted toward TP type hands and possibly Tx. V3's range is very wide.

If we call, V1 cannot reopen the action. V2 could but it seems unlikely - I wouldn't expect him to flat a flopped set or straight on this board with 3 players behind and plenty of scare cards/action killers. Assuming V1 and V2 are along for the ride, we're getting a price of $92 to win a minimum of $443, with implied odds for the rest of V2/V4 stack. Getting essentially 5:1 with a pair and OESD should be correct odds to draw, right, particularly in position? I am fully aware there is some RIO present, but since our direct odds of improving by the river are almost exactly 1:1, shouldn't that be enough?

Or, if we want to remove some of that RIO, what do we think about a shove? V1 may or may not come along. V2 is likely to fold anything but a flopped monster. V4 should fold given reads, and then we isolate against V3 (or maybe with V1) when we should have ~50% equity against their ranges, with a metric ton of dead money in the pot.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 05:29 PM
Judging by these hand histories and the fact this isn't an obvious fold to you. I think it is debatable that V1 is the #1 mark at the table.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 05:37 PM
3/10 on troll attempt.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
Getting essentially 5:1 with a pair and OESD should be correct odds to draw, right, particularly in position? I am fully aware there is some RIO present, but since our direct odds of improving by the river are almost exactly 1:1, shouldn't that be enough?
If just one other person has a T, we're now actually getting quite poor 2.5:1 immediate odds (plus will split any other future earnings hitting our straight with that person, lessening our already poor implied odds on what would be a 4-to-a-straight board).

Also, giving us 50/50 to improve by the river is pretty optimistic. Even if someone else doesn't have a T, we've seen a bet, a call, a shove, and a call. Very good chance our J outs aren't good (someone could already have a straight or have our J dominated) and very slim chance our T outs are any good (which would put a QJT9 on board). Plus poor RIO on top of that.

As for shoving, I think the stars would really have to align in that we'd somehow have to hope the all-in doesn't have hands we fear plus others who already have a lot of money invested somehow manage to fold the hands we need them to.

GimoG
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
I can understand and anticipated some comments on PF. If I weren't on the button, I would likely fold this. But having position on the world, and V1 likely to spew into the field, made me want to play more hands. Also, FYI, this is a timed game that shuts down at midnight and it was about 11:30 or so; there was certainly a limit in play as to how many chances I would get to stack these shorty fish.

I must admit I'm a bit surprised by the overwhelming opinion so far being fold the flop. I contemplated all three options: fold/call/shove, but was mostly deciding between call and shove.

I feel strongly that V4's range is capped at one pair - there is zero chance he would flat here with a set. V1's range is ATC, V2's range I would imagine is weighted toward TP type hands and possibly Tx. V3's range is very wide.

If we call, V1 cannot reopen the action. V2 could but it seems unlikely - I wouldn't expect him to flat a flopped set or straight on this board with 3 players behind and plenty of scare cards/action killers. Assuming V1 and V2 are along for the ride, we're getting a price of $92 to win a minimum of $443, with implied odds for the rest of V2/V4 stack. Getting essentially 5:1 with a pair and OESD should be correct odds to draw, right, particularly in position? I am fully aware there is some RIO present, but since our direct odds of improving by the river are almost exactly 1:1, shouldn't that be enough?

Or, if we want to remove some of that RIO, what do we think about a shove? V1 may or may not come along. V2 is likely to fold anything but a flopped monster. V4 should fold given reads, and then we isolate against V3 (or maybe with V1) when we should have ~50% equity against their ranges, with a metric ton of dead money in the pot.
The value of a hand like this drops precipitously as things get multiway and as you lose FE. Here you have no chance of taking the pot down immediately and have 2 players who have shown a lot of interest in the pot.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-28-2015 , 06:55 PM
I fully understand that another T in V's hands would greatly impact odds. I also fully understand that our T/J outs may be dirty. But if we are looking only at the OESD, that's 8 outs twice, that's about 2:1 to hit by the river. Plus, who is most likely to hold a T in their range? V2, who seems unlikely to call a shove if he flatted flip. V3 could as well, but he's already all in. That's why I at least considered a shove - to fold our hands we might chop with.

Mind you, I'm not necessarily advocating for call or shove. I'm simply putting forward arguments as to why this might not be a snap fold.

I wonder if people are assigning V3 a much stronger range than he has. Given his A7 play, I think his range is very wide.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-29-2015 , 02:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
3/10 on troll attempt.
3/10 - still higher than your equity.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-29-2015 , 10:12 AM
Seriously, you contribute nothing to this forum. If you don't like the question (and you have no idea what action I took in this hand), then just stay away from the thread. I posted it because I think it's worth discussing, particularly given the dynamics of the table. Go troll elsewhere.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-29-2015 , 11:39 AM
May actually be drawing dead. Muck ASAP.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-29-2015 , 01:54 PM
It really isn't worth discussing. QT has us crushed. Unsubscribing.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-29-2015 , 01:59 PM
And how exactly are we narrowing any of these V's ranges to precisely 9 combos of QT?
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-30-2015 , 11:04 AM
Results:

Hero tank folded.

V1 whale went all in for his remaining $122.

V2 called.

V4 called.

Turn: 6 completing the rainbow.

Checks around.

River: 2

Checks around.

V4 shows AQ. V3 mucks. V2 mucks. V1 flips over Q6o and starts whooping and beating his chest.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-30-2015 , 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
Results:

Hero tank folded.

V1 whale went all in for his remaining $122.

V2 called.

V4 called.

Turn: 6 completing the rainbow.

Checks around.

River: 2

Checks around.

V4 shows AQ. V3 mucks. V2 mucks. V1 flips over Q6o and starts whooping and beating his chest.
Think you made the right play by folding, and I will bet you dollars to donuts that at least one of V3 and V2, if not both, had QT, JT, T9, or AT meaning you were drawing to split pot (or drawing dead to a king for AT) if you had called.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-30-2015 , 11:25 AM
I agree with you neuro. V3's expression and reactions led me to believe that he did not have a T, but V2 probably did.

That's actually what made me think a shove might've been profitable here. V4's range is most likely capped at one pair and can't call. I have no idea what V1 would've done with his garbage TP. I can't imagine V2 would call for his whole stack. I wouldn't have binked on this runout, but if we narrow the field to us, V3, and potentially V1 with all that dead money out there, I think it might've been +EV.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-30-2015 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
I have no idea what V1 would've done with his garbage TP.
V1 is labelled a whale and the #1 mark at the table, and he's already put in $36 of his rather short $160 stack.

Ghecalls,allday,everydayG
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote
07-30-2015 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
V1 is labelled a whale and the #1 mark at the table, and he's already put in $36 of his rather short $160 stack.

Ghecalls,allday,everydayG
You're probably right given his exact holding - of course, we didnt know he had raggedy TP. He could've just as easily had air (in other hands literally saw him limp/call flop and donk out triple barrel PSB each time with complete air). And who knows, even a megafish might back down with Q6o when he sees the action go $25-$25-$92-$92-$400.
Massive pot and action with pair + draw Quote

      
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