Hero - $1000 -

Same session as my other hand with the AK where I 3bet to $200 and lose and have not won 1 hand.

Same villains but this one has an added one.

Villain - $1100 - he is very tight. I don't think i've seen this guy make any moves. He generally raises pre - but when he limps in I think I can range him on a pocket pair. He folded AK when he rivered top pair when he bet and a fish raised him big.

Hero is dealt AQo in the SB. Whole table limps to me and I make it $50. Not sure if this is ideal - but it can't be awful.

Well unfortunately I get 3 callers including the tight player who hasn't played in about 3 hours.

I get a super dry flop of

Q84
I donk $125
He calls

I am pretty sure he has a set of 4's or 8's - and I can't think of any other hand he would play this way.

Turn is 2s
I check
He bets $225
I fold

I was really upset about folding it, but can I really ever be good here? I think running bad was getting to me, and this might of been the biggest fold i've made all night.

I'm not sure what you need to happen in order to play a hand

Are you just folding every flop that isn't AAQ? I don't see the point in raising pre and betting flop if you're just gonna fold if someone continues vs you

Just bet bet bet if he has a set whatever

FWIW, if you are the preflop raiser, you can't donk bet. It is a continuation bet.

The only reason to check the turn is to lure him in and call his bet. Never folding to anyone in this situation other than the most passive players out there. He doesn't believe you have TPTK when you check the turn.

no, but this guy is literally the tightest player i've ever seen. LIterally what hands does he limp call with - he hasn't played a hand in 3 hours. That is over 100 hands. Does he limp call KQ and play it like that? His UTG limping range is pocket pairs. Out of the 5 sessions i've played with him, he hasn't limped anything other than a pocket pair that i've seen.

Once you check turn he should be betting every queen and there are plenty of worse queens than AQ. Even stones will limp/call with QTs, QJs etc

I think you're actually the tightest guy at the table now

I hear you re: his limp / flop continuing range but what position is he? Did he open limp in or overlimp? Are we sure he's not playing any QX for an overlimp? Given your read yeah he only has sets but I sort of think that's a bit too narrow.

We've got a bit of a bloated pot pre oop and we bet fairly large otf I think 1/2 pottish on this dry flop keeps things a bit more manageable still thins the field some and ensures Worse Qx can call.

The fact hero Bet into the crowd should indicate the possibility we have at least a Q and I doubt we are getting floated by this v but with our Turn check if he thought we might be punishing the limps preflop and whiffed the flop with A hi or something he's going to bet turn a lot. Certainly with QJ, KQ.

The problem with bet flop/ chk turn oop is it forces us into bluff catching when v bets and this v ain't bluffing. We can only hope he's betting worse for value. And we have to worry about a river Bet.

I go 1/2 pottish flop and bet turn again.


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ya limped in early position and called a $50 preflop bet. His only possible hands are pocket pairs.

UTG changes hand drastically.


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He calls pre and flop with nut low relative position.


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wouldn't fold here.

Also there are 2 people behind to act

What range of hands can you put this guy on?

Grunch

If the table is 9 handed and everyone limped I prefer raising to $60 or $65 but that's a small point. As played flop bet is ok but I'd like a little smaller.

As played you should bet the turn small-ish like 40%-50%, looking to get 3 streets from Qx.

As played, if you check this turn, then x/c that turn bet.

If you have a read that villain is super tight and his range is exclusively 22-TTish after he l/c pre and doesn't ever continue on the flop without a set, then it's an easy check fold. Why post the hand then? FWIW I think your read is probably off.

We were talking after the hand, after I tank folded. He said he had a set of 8's but who knows. People lie. He said good fold if I folded a queen. I couldn't find a hand I beat, so I folded. I posted the hand because it was only value hand the whole night and I think I might of misplayed it.

That's a pretty narrow range on the V, basically 6 combos, to C/F turn. Can he play JJ, also 6 combos, like this?

Pre - with $45 of dead $ in, likely making it $65.
Flop - on this texture and with the TAG in, making a 40% PSB
Turn - same as flop, maybe closer to 1/3 PSB.

Not calling flop bet UTG with JJ IMO. 2 players to act.

In position or HU yes.


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I don't mind flop sizing, we're hoping to get called by a different V with a worse Q. Instead we get called by the one guy who prob has our flop range crushed. As you described the V, idk if he bets this much with anything less than KQ. A hand like QJ from a tight player might put 150-200 out there as a 'protect vs AK and get a semi-cheap showdwn' bet. OOP this guy isn't floating with garbage, prob isn't tricky with A8s.

If your read is accurate is he has a set 75%+, then as Jarret said, it's c/f and move on. Sorry about your night, losing sucks.

If he's an ULTRA nit then you probably made a good disciplined lay down.

Folding seems fine. We actually don't have many worse hands in his spot. It's the bottom of our flop value range or close so it's not like folding this is some kind of poker heresy. We have the worst hand we're repping after Raising over the entire table OOP and betting flop four ways. I would peel turn with AA/KK believing AQ is in Vs range. Worse Qx should not bet turn.

Yeah I like this. It seems like very often people completely ignore the difference between betting the flop into 3 opponents and betting into 1 opponent and what that means for ranges. I'm bluffing quite rarely, only c-betting with good backdoor draws and my value range is KQ+, not betting JJ on the flop, just checking.

I don't hate the fold, not sure if it's exploitable, probably is if you fold all AQ combos. I'd just bet 40% pot though and check river, expecting him to check back Qx and worse and bet sets.

Youre not sure if this fold exploitable lol? really? How bout you just float OP every hand and bet 1/3 pot every turn that he checks? If hes folding top pair, top kicker on a board as dry as my nanas cooter, what isnt he folding?

I like a bet/fold on the turn. Check folding is way too weak.

edit: Im also not 100% positive im raising this pre out of the SB. If I am I like a larger size, like 65ish. Maybe one of the middle limpers will go crazy and jam his A5

If your read is correct, a fold here is fine.

Bigger pre, $50 is too small from the SB.

Flop bet can be a little smaller since it's so dry. Would keep barreling turn < 55% pot, and decide rivers. X/c'ing is also fine, just not x/f'ing turn yet.

You're seeing monsters under the bed. I know what you are feeling and thinking because I went on a huge downswing once in my career online. Your thought process was similar to mine. I was even scared of getting KK in pre. In 2k hands & less than a week, I had KK vs AA approx. 6 times and lost all of them, lost KK vs AK, and had AA vs KK only once (lost that one too). Had a bunch of other suckouts, and it took a really long time for me to regain confidence in my game and recuperate from that downswing.

Who cares if it's exploitable? If in reality he has a set here 80-100% of the time, your call is massively -EV & you're lighting money on fire by stationing here. Do you not like money?

Lmao people just throw around words like "balance" & "exploitable" all the time on these forums without really understanding their significance. I'm not advocating a x/f at all, but it's not crazy to consider nit-folding here.

OP is making his decision based on an observation that villain hasn't played a hand in 3 hours.

So yeah. If you show up to OP's table and fold 99 straight hands, on the 100th hand you can now limp/call ATC, float flop, and fire turn to get him to lay down TPTK.

Not sure how useful this particular exploit is going to be.

Hahaha.