Game is 6 handed. Effective stacks are 450.

Hero has 9h10h UTG + 1. UTG (tight aggressive reg) opens to 10. Hero calls and Loose Passive BB calls.

Flop 8d Jc Qs

BB checks, UTG Checks, Hero bets 21. UTG calls.

Turn 9d. UTG leads 50 hero calls.

River 5d. UTG bets 125. Hero?

Some friends thought this was a snap call but I don't see the UTG player playing a 10 this aggressively. What would you do?

Snap call. You said UTG is TAG. Then he should have at most 3 combos of KTs. A lot of TAGs even open fold that UTG. If a good player sees you tank this hand cause there's a tiny % chance your second nuts aren't good, he will make your life HELL.

Yeah I agree with the call. I expect to see a lot of sets in this situation. He isn't thinking you got a back door flush. If he has a better hand, say "nice hand" and move on.

As played I'm calling, but why didn't you raise his turn bet? No way he check/calls KT on flop.

Tough.. did he have KT?

Definitely snap calling. I see these odd/wannabe sneaky moves with hands that villains simply think they are betting for value. For instance he could have 2pair/set and for some reason just doenst think you can have a ten, or cant believe he's that unlucky that you have a ten, or is projecting his playstyle on you and thinks you shouldnt have a ten here because he wouldnt play it like this.

Something you have to think about is if this is a worst case scenario, i.e. flush/KT, what kind of player opens these hands but doesnt cbet? It stands to reason that if he's the kind of person who'd open KT or AKdd then he'd go for a cbet here because he'd have some decent equity. It doesnt make sense that he'd be aggro pre, passive flop, then suddenly turn aggro again. Of all the loose hands he'd open with he'd have to be barreling with them too just to conform to his playstyle.

In reality what he probably is is super tight that thinks he has to get tricky when he smashes the flop and now he thinks he's got you.

I actually think we should fold, even though in game I probably call. My reasoning being this: he's probably not leading every ten in his range on the turn or betting the river when the board gets scarier, he's probably got something to go along with a ten like a gutshot to the nuts, the nuts, or a flush draw to the nuts. We need to be good 30% of the time on the river. I've run some ranges in Equilab, & against realistic ranges we don't have enough equity to call.

It's 6 handed so he probably has all KT in his range.

I would bet a lot of money he doesn't have a set.

Fold.

This is very close imo. I don't really favour either call or fold, I think they both have about the same EV.

Oh it's 6 handed. And there's a backdoor flush. Whoops.

Even then, he should not have KTo if he's actually TAG and not LAG so we can reduce KT to 3 combos. And he would definitely cbet it most of the time so we can reduce KT to almost never. Question is what hand would x/c flop, lead turn that beats you? JT? QT? Still not folding even though I expect a chop most of the time.

Yeah that was the issue I had during the hand. If I was calling, his hand was pretty face up as at least a 10 with his turn lead. So essentially I was calling to win half the pot which was about $90. So I had to be right more than 50% of the time to make the call and does he really only have a backdoor flush or K10 42% of the time? With him being a TAG I'm not so sure