Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211
Fair enough, what I meant was that I think I could have gotten it in with him pre as a big favorite, and didn't because I flatted his 4-bet. I certainly lost a lot less money based on the way the cards came out post, though from my perspective flop is an easy fold.
You want to find the play that does best against his entire range. If you think (and I tend to agree with you) that it's possible for him to 4b/f stuff like TT/JJ/AK but shove flops like 724r when you flat the 4b and he continues to have the preflop lead, then flatting does much better against a ton of combos in his range.
5b ship: He continues with QQ+. We gii as an 82/18 favorite against 6 combos QQ, find ourselves an 82/18 dog against 6 combos AA, and chop on non 4 flush boards against the other KK. Pretty EV neutral.
Flat the 4b: He now has TT+, AK in his range. Playing in position, we can fold on flops that are obviously better for his range than ours, saving us $370. We also gain an extra $370 from TT/JJ/AK if he decides to c-bet ship on stuff like 724r. There are 28 combos of TT/JJ/AK, so this is pretty significant.
The two drawbacks I see to flatting compared to 5b shipping are that we will sometimes lose out on value against QQ when the flop comes Axx or Kxx, and that if we end up playing a lot with the guy and want to have a 5b bluff range we need to have KK in our value side to balance things out. The latter point is of course irrelevant if we don't have a desire to start 5b bluffing in position.
Overall I think the positives outweigh the drawbacks and flatting the 4b is a very reasonable play.